FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Monday Night (Bills at 49ers)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the San Francisco 49ers are 1.5-point "home" favorites versus the Buffalo Bills for Monday night's game in Glendale, Arizona, and the total is set at 46.5 points, which implies a 24.00-22.50 win for the Bills.
According to our oddsFire tool, the betting public loves Buffalo in this one. A lopsided 83% of the bets and 75% of the money on the spread is on the Bills to cover, and 90% of the bets on the moneyline are backing Buffalo. Sharp money is all over the under. While 72% of the bets on the total are on the over, just 43% of the money has followed suit, indicating some big bets on the side of the under.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Josh Allen, Bills ($16,500)
Josh Allen has slowed since his gaudy start to the year, posting fewer than 19 FanDuel points in five of his past seven games after going for at least 25 FanDuel points in each of the first four weeks. The Niners' D looked much better last week, too, after struggling for a lot of the year.
So why should you use Allen as your MVP? He still has a fantastic ceiling. In his two high-upside fantasy outings over his last seven, he went for 28.86 and 36.00 FanDuel points. His running ability boosts both his floor and upside, and he's notched at least seven rushing attempts in five consecutive contests.
We have Allen projected for 20.9 FanDuel points, a slate-best clip by 4.0 FanDuel points.
Nick Mullens, 49ers ($13,000)
This is a good spot for the Niners' offense as Buffalo has been a below-average defense this season.
The Bills have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (20.9), so this is a nice get-right spot for Nick Mullens, who hasn't put up more than 13 FanDuel points in any of his past three outings. But those three games came against tougher defenses in the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers.
Our projections have Mullens going for 16.9 FanDuel points, and he's our top point-per-dollar play.
Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($14,000)
This is also a money spot for the 49ers' rushing attack as Buffalo has surrendered the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (22.0).
In his first game since Week 6, Mostert was in on just 40% of the snaps as San Fran used a three-back committee. That's not good. On the flip side, Mostert handled 16 carries and hauled in 2 receptions, operating as the preferred runner while Jerick McKinnon ($10,500) was the pass-game back and Jeff Wilson ($6,500) got some work, too. And now Tevin Coleman ($7,500) is expected back this week. Yay.
Even with all the mouths to feed in this backfield, if you're building under the idea that the Niners win this one, Mostert is a quality option. If you think the 49ers see a negative game script, Mostert is tough to swallow for $14,000.
Our algorithm forecasts Mostert to amass 12.3 FanDuel points.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($12,000)
Deebo Samuel was another guy who came back from injury in San Francisco's get-healthy game last week versus the Rams. He was used heavily, too, catching 11 of 13 targets for 133 yards. The 13 looks were a career high, and he tied for the lead in snap share (88%) among the team's receivers. The expected return of Brandon Aiyuk ($11,000) tonight may pull away some looks from Samuel, but it's clear the 49ers want to get Samuel involved.
We project him for 12.9 FanDuel points and rate him as the best point-per-dollar play outside of the two signal callers.
Gabriel Davis, Bills ($7,500)
In the two games John Brown has missed this season, Gabriel Davis has recorded snap rates of 100% and 97%. Someone at this salary being on the field that much is more than enough to get us interested. And he's not just getting in cardio out there. In those two contests, Davis has combined for 8 catches on 13 targets for 137 yards and 1 score.
Among players with a salary under $12,000, we have Davis and San Fran tight end Jordan Reed ($7,500) as the premier point-per-dollar plays, projecting them for 7.4 and 7.3 FanDuel points, respectively.
Jordan Reed, 49ers ($7,500)
Speaking of Reed, he has the best on-paper matchup of any of the 49ers' pass-catchers as the Bills have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (12.4).
He's played only 43% and 44% of the snaps in the past two games as Ross Dwelley ($6,500) has out-snapped him in each. But Reed has 12 targets in that span to Dwelley's 4 and has run more pass routes in each game. Reed isn't a bad option for $7,500.