FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Monday Night (Ravens at Browns)
Per our oddsFire tool, we can see two betting trends involving sharp money. On the spread, only 40% of the bets coming in have been on the Ravens, but 47% of the money has Baltimore covering. We see a bigger discrepancy on the total -- just 31% of the bets are on the under but 53% of the money is backing the under. Our model has the Ravens taking a close one, 24.27-23.28.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($17,000)
It's difficult to get away from Lamar Jackson when he's on a single-game slate. Even though he hasn't matched his 2019 play, Jackson still has a chance for a monster fantasy outing every time he takes the field.
Over the last six games, Jackson's rushing numbers have been up. In that span, he's averaged 12.5 rushing attempts, 71.8 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. That solidifies his floor as he's posted at least 16.82 FanDuel points in every game in that stretch.
The passing totals haven't been as gaudy, and he's attempted just 17 and 23 passes in Baltimore's last two wins. But that rushing work goes a long way for fantasy, and the Browns have surrendered the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (20.5).
We project Jackson to total 20.6 FanDuel points, 5.6 more than anyone else on the slate. He's going to be the chalk MVP play.
Nick Chubb ($14,500) and Kareem Hunt ($11,000), Browns
There will probably be a lot of running in this game as these two teams both sit in the bottom three in pass rate. As long as the game is close, the Browns figure to pound the rock with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
These two continue to split snaps pretty evenly. In the four games since Chubb came back from injury, Hunt has logged 137 total snaps while Chubb has been in on 135 snaps. Chubb has, however, topped Hunt in snap rate in each of the last two weeks, though neither of these guys has played more than 61% of the snaps in any game since Chubb came off the shelf. The carry count goes to Chubb, too -- 19, 20, 19 and 18 carries in the past four, compared to 19, 13, 10 and 14 for Hunt.
The matchup is brutal as our schedule-adjusted metrics rank Baltimore as the second-best run D. The Ravens have allowed the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (18.2). One thing Baltimore has somewhat struggled with, though, is giving up chunk plays on the ground, owning the 14th-highest rate of explosive run plays allowed. That certainly bodes well for Chubb, who leads all backs in runs of 20-plus yards (11) despite playing only eight games.
Our model forecasts Chubb for 12.7 FanDuel points and Hunt to score 9.8. Chubb looks like the better play unless you think the Browns get into a hole, which would play more into Hunt's role. As point-per-dollar plays, our projections have these two nearly equal.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens ($11,500)
J.K. Dobbins has led Baltimore's running backs in snap rate in every game in which he's played since the Ravens' Week 7 bye. With that said, it was far from clear cut last week as he was in on only three more snaps than Gus Edwards ($8,500).
Before missing Week 12, Dobbins was the definitive leader in this backfield (41 snaps to Edwards' 11), so maybe the closer workload split last week was due to Dobbins missing practices.
Our metrics aren't high on this Cleveland defense, ranking them 12th-worst against the run and 8th-worst overall. If Dobbins -- or any of the Ravens' running backs -- gets a bunch of touches, he could feast. We have him going for only 8.7 FanDuel points, but I think he's a fun MVP pivot off the Lamar chalk in the hopes that he gets back to more of a commanding lead role.
Marquise Brown, Ravens ($10,000)
Operating in the most run-heavy offense in the league, Brown's huge market share numbers have turned into only eight targets apiece in the two outings, but his big-play chops give him the chance to produce on limited targets -- something he's done in each of those two games, scoring a tud in both and posting 16.5 and 12.4 FanDuel points.
Cleveland has been a pass-funnel D this season. They've struggled against wideouts, allowing the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to receivers (33.7), while surrendering the ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (18.6). And top corner Denzel Ward is out for Cleveland, putting another feather in Brown's cap.
There's a chance this game is a low-scoring affair -- sharp money is on the under -- and that would make a Brown big play all the more valuable. We project him to score 8.7 FanDuel points, and Hollywood is in the MVP mix for me.
Austin Hooper, Browns ($7,500)
Per our projections, Austin Hooper is the best point-per-dollar play among guys with a salary under $10,500. Admittedly, there's isn't too much to get pumped about in Hooper's profile. Since coming back from an injury in Week 10, he owns a mere 11% target share and 8% air yards share.
He has, however, been on the field a good amount, playing at least 67% of the snaps in all four games in that stretch. And the Ravens have been a middle-of-the-road defense versus tight ends, giving up the 16th-most FanDuel points per game to the position (10.2). That's not great, but considering how well Baltimore has locked up running backs and receivers, it's noteworthy.
Hooper is a decent dart throw, especially if you think the Browns see a negative game script. We project him for 6.9 FanDuel points.
Willie Snead, Ravens ($7,500)
As we mentioned earlier, the Browns have had a tough time containing wideouts. Prior to missing the last two games, Willie Snead was running as the Ravens' number-one receiver. Across Baltimore's first four games after their bye, Snead led the Ravens' receivers with a 22% target share, and he tied Brown for the lead in air yards share (26%).
We'll have to see if Snead returns to that role with Brown producing in his absence, but Snead is a fine low-salary gamble. Our algorithm has him scoring 6.6 FanDuel points, making him the sixth-best point-per-dollar value.