4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 14
On the Week 14 FanDuel main slate, there are seven games with an over/under of at least 47.5 points, which makes for some nice team and games stacks across the league. There are also seven teams implied to score at least 26.0 points, which should lead to some high-scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals, and player draft percentage projections.
Green Bay Packers
I’m kicking off this article the exact same way I did last week, rolling with a Green Bay Packers stack of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. The Packers have yet another great matchup this week, taking on the Detroit Lions in what should be a shootout. This game currently sits at a 55.0-point over/under, which is the highest of any game on this week’s main slate. The Packers also lead the field with a 31.50-point implied total.
Rodgers continued his MVP push last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, throwing for 295 passing yards and 3 touchdown passes. That is the ninth time this year he’s thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in a game, and the 10th time he’s scored at least 22 FanDuel points -- and he’s played only 12 games this season.
He has a chance to continue building on his MVP campaign this week against a Lions defense that is allowing 29.8 points per game this season, the second-most across the league. They also have the league’s worst pass defense, per our schedule-adjusted numbers, and will be without number-one cornerback Desmond Trufant.
Going by our projections, Rodgers is projected to be a top-three quarterback this week. He’s played the Lions 21 times over the course of his career and has a winning record of 16-5 versus the division rival. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in 16 of those games and has thrown more than 300 yards in nine. This is a team he’s notoriously dominated.
Stacking up Rodgers with Adams has been a recipe for success all season, and I expect that to continue this week. Per our algorithm, no other wide receiver is projecting better than Adams on the main slate. His currently leads all receivers in our projections in FanDuel points, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown probability. This is a guy who has averaged 22.08 FanDuel points per game this season and has scored a touchdown in all but two games.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Adams has a nice matchup this week against a susceptible Lions' secondary. He’s expected to face Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye the most, a cornerback he should have his way with. PFF is currently giving Adams a 43% advantage in this matchup, which ranks as the third-best wide receiver/cornerback advantage in Week 14.
Start Rodgers and Adams with confidence this week in what should be a high-scoring game.
Kansas City Chiefs
I was a bit surprised to see Patrick Mahomes listed as the third-most-expensive quarterback on the FanDuel main slate this week. It may not seem like much, but anytime I can get Mahomes at a discount, I want to take advantage of it.
This week the Chiefs are heading to Miami to face a Dolphins team that has played pretty dang well this season. The Chiefs are, however, favored to win this matchup by 7.0 points.
Per our algorithm, no other quarterback is projecting better than Mahomes this week. He’s projected to score 23.6 FanDuel points with the upside to score more than 30 FanDuel points -- a feat he’s been able to accomplish five times already this season.
Mahomes is basically matchup proof, but the Dolphins do have a strong cornerback duo with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. However, both cornerbacks play on the outside, which is why I like stacking Mahomes with Hill, who runs 55% of his routes from the slot and will avoid Howard and Jones for most of this game.
Since Mahomes has taken over as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018, he and Hill have played a combined 40 games together. During that stretch, Hill has averaged 93.4 scrimmage yards and 0.90 all-purpose touchdowns per game. This season Hill has managed to score a touchdown in all but two games.
It’s also been encouraging to see Hill’s target share this season. The receiver leads the Chiefs’ long list of talented pass catchers with a 24.13% target share in 2020. This has largely been due to his target share over the past four games, when he’s seen 18, 14, 15, and 11 targets.
I like that trend to continue this week in what should be a soft matchup for Hill in the slot. Per PFF, Hill is expected to line up against Dolphins' slot cornerback Nik Needham. PFF is giving Hill a 54% advantage in this matchup, the best advantage any wide receiver has over a corner.
Los Angeles Chargers
You could argue last week was the first time Herbert underperformed all year, but it may be enough to scare off some people from rostering him again this week. I will not be one of those people.
For starters, Herbert has a terrific matchup against the Falcons. Per Pro Football Reference, no other defense has allowed more FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Falcons have, and I expect Herbert to take advantage of them.
The rookie quarterback has faced three other bottom-10 pass defenses this season: the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, and Jacksonville Jaguars. In each of those three games, Herbert threw for more than 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns, while managing to score 27.74, 23.44, and 38.48 FanDuel points. This is a great rebound spot for the young quarterback to score 20-plus FanDuel points again, something he’s been able to do in eight of 11 starts this season.
I like stacking up Herbert with Keenan Allen. Allen has been a target monster all season for the Chargers, seeing 28.18% of the team’s targets. He has the second-highest target share among all wide receivers across the league. In the 11 games Herbert and Allen have played together this season, Allen has seen double-digit targets in nine of them. He has also managed to score a touchdown in seven of those games and has topped 100 receiving yards four times.
This week Allen should be able to have his way against a Falcons' secondary that is allowing the third-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers this season. Per PFF, Allen is expected to line up against Falcons slot cornerback Isaiah Oliver. PFF is giving Allen a 24% advantage over Oliver, which ranks as a top-15 advantage in Week 14.
Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The last stack I like this week is a game stack with the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This game currently has a 52.5-point over/under, which ranks as the second-highest on the main slate, and has the potential to turn into a shootout.
I think you can attack this game stack in a number of different ways, but my favorite way is with Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen from the Vikings' side and then running it back with Ronald Jones on the Buccaneers' side.
Starting with Minnesota, Cousins has been a man on a mission lately, leading the Vikings to a 5-2 record over their past seven games. During that stretch, Cousins has played his best football of the season, throwing for more than 290 passing yards and at least 3 touchdowns in five of those games. That has ultimately translated to him averaging 21.1 FanDuel points per game over his last seven.
This week Cousins and the Vikings will look to keep their hot streak alive against a Bucs team that has lost three of their last four. And in those four games, the Bucs' defense hasn’t been great, allowing their opponents to score an average of 28.75 points per game.
Stacking Cousins with Thielen is a great way to attack this Bucs D. Thielen still remains the number-one wide receiver in the Minnesota offense but is obviously having to compete with rookie Justin Jefferson for targets. Both receivers should see their fair share of targets this week.
I lean Thielen over Jefferson for two reasons. Number one, Thielen is slightly cheaper than Jefferson on FanDuel this week. And two, Thielen is likely to be the less popular receiver. While I think both receivers can be stacked up with Cousins, and I’ll take the receiver who is cheaper and likely less popular.
On top of that, Thielen’s projection is also slightly better than Jefferson’s, per our algorithm. Thielen currently has the sixth-best wide receiver projection this week, while Jefferson is ranked ninth. However, both receivers have positive matchups this week against the Bucs' secondary. PFF is giving both Thielen and Jefferson a 20% matchup advantage against the Bucs' cornerbacks.
Running this back with Jones is a great way to make this game stack contrarian. Most people stacking this game will likely use at least one of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown, so rostering Jones is a great way to be contrarian.
The Bucs are currently 6.5-point favorites over the Vikings this week, which bodes well for the Bucs' running backs. I’ll be rostering Jones over Leonard Fournette, especially after Bucs head coach Bruce Arians mentioned they need to get Jones more involved going forward.
"I don't think there's any doubt," Bruce Arians said of getting Ronald Jones more involved. "He needs to have 20 touches."
Said Jones' lack of touches this past game were really a result of the Bucs needing their pass catchers on the field as they tried to play catch up.
— Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV) November 30, 2020
If the Bucs are able to get out to an early lead in this game, Jones should see a hefty workload, while Cousins and the Vikings' pass-catchers play catch-up. That is the game script I’m targeting with this game stack.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)