NFL Weather Report: Week 15
Week 14 ended with a thriller, and Week 15 started off with a bang, with Justin Herbert leading the Los Angeles Chargers to an overtime victory. Now, we’ve got the rest of Week 15 to review. We’ve got games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Fantasy managers will be processing news and adjusting lineups all weekend. To help, I’ve taken a look at the forecast for the weekend and identified a few games to monitor.
Overview
Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 15:
| Game | Temperature (Feels Like) | Chance of Precipitation | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars at Ravens | 29 | 37% | 5 mph SSW |
| Browns at Giants | 33 | 37% | 2 mph W |
| Seahawks at Football Team | 41 | 35% | 3 mph S |
Games Impacted by Precipitation
Jacksonville Jaguars (16.25-point implied total) at Baltimore Ravens (30.50)
Cleveland Browns (25.25) at New York Giants (18.75)
Seattle Seahawks (24.75) at Washington Football Team (20.75)
You’ll notice I switched up the title of this section for Week 15. Normally, our only concern here would be rain. However, all three games will be played along the east coast, which has been buried by the Nor’Easter winter storm. Snow isn’t projected at this time, but the conditions are worth monitoring given the local temperatures for each contest. Otherwise, there’s little concern.
Let’s start in our usual spot and contextualize the forecast.
| Condition | Precipitation (inches per hour) |
|---|---|
| Light Rain | .01 - .1 |
| Moderate | .1 - .3 |
| Heavy Rain | >= .3 |
Luckily, we can condense the overall analysis into a single table.
| Time of Game | JAC/BAL | CLE/NYG | SEA/WAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Quarter | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Second Quarter | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Third Quarter | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Fourth Quarter | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
The maximum precipitation rate in any game is just 0.02 inches per hour. At worst, we’ve seen unpredictable events like slips on the field in these conditions. At best, we’ve seen minimal effects on the passing game. For example, the Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons game back in Week 8 featured 0.5-0.6 inches per hour in the third quarter. Passing rates per quarter were as follows:
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 64.70% | 65% | 46.20% | 37.50% |
| Carolina | 55.6 | 50% | 81.30% | 85.70% |
The Panthers were trailing in the second half, which drove their jump in pass attempts. Regardless, the elements weren’t a big factor. Again, it’s a small sample, but we can approach Week 15 with little concern. As long the temperature doesn’t change the rain to sleet/flurries, the game environments shouldn’t be impacted.
