4 NFL DraftKings Values for the Wild Card Round
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Lamar Jackson and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Wild Card Round lineups.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
DraftKings Price: $5,700
Projected Points: 18.4
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.23
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, at 28.5 points, check in with the third-highest implied total for the Wild Card weekend. They are favored by 9.5 at home over the Chicago Bears, who undoubtedly boast a strong defense, one that ranks eighth overall, according to our metrics. However, among the teams playing this weekend, the Bears rank in the middle of the pack against the pass. They have been much better against the run, so we should see Brees slinging it.
Although the 41-year-old has failed to top 40 passing attempts in any game since his return from injury, he has thrown the ball 34, 26 and 32 times for an average of 249 yards a game. And he bookended a zero-touchdown game with two three-score outings, both in which he surpassed 20 DraftKings points.
Recent performances aside, Brees has been a monster at home throughout his New Orleans tenure, including the last two years. During this stretch, he's averaged 23.9 DK points per game at home with nine games of 20 or more. He's a prime tournament play given the matchup.
Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts
DraftKings Price: $4,700
Projected Points: 11.3
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.40
Of the number of fantasy-relevant running backs playing on this slate, Nyheim Hines has one of the lower ceilings. Yet, he is a consistent, all-around producer. He's going to be in play in whichever game script the Colts find themselves in as they go on the road to face the Bills.
On top of his usage as a runner (89 rushes for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns) Hines has been a contributor as a receiver, tallying 400-plus receiving yards for the second time in his three-year career. He hauled in 63 of 76 targets for another 4 scores to boot, accounting for nearly 71% of his fantasy points this season via the passing game. Hines saw at least five targets in seven games.
Hines doesn't face the toughest of tasks, either. Against the run, the Bills rank 23rd in the league and dead last among this weekend's teams. When you factor in his passing-game work, his floor is as safe as any back considering price, and with the Colts a 6.5-point underdog, Hines could get plenty of pass-game work on Saturday.
Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears
DraftKings Price: $3,300
Projected Points: 6.0
Projected Value: 1.82
When you look at this week's player pool, you see a number of wideouts with a questionable tag or some other designation. One of those is Chicago receiver Darnell Mooney, who failed to practice Wednesday because of an ankle injury. And the impact of that could loom large on this smaller slate, as his absence would open the door for fellow pass-catcher Anthony Miller.
Miller would step in as the second receiver opposite Allen Robinson, and he should have some rapport with Mitchell Trubisky after playing with him frequently a year ago. This year, he's had his moments, as well. Miller had three regular season games of at least five catches, while he enjoyed four games of double-digit DK points and averaged 6.9 a game for the campaign.
Even if he only hits that average, Miller would return more than two-times his salary, and on a slate like this, Miller's dirt-cheap salary opens up a lot at other positions. But the opportunity to have more of a ceiling game is there with the Bears likely to trail throughout.
Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
DraftKings Price: $3,700
Projected Points: 9.0
Projected Value: 2.43
Eric Ebron was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List this past Saturday, but if he continues to return negative results, he would be eligible to play come Sunday night. And if he is, he's in a great spot to pay off his low roster cost.
Ebron ended the year fourth on the team in targets at 91. He turned that into 56 catches for 558 yards and 5 scores, operating as a primary middle-of-the-field target for Ben Roethlisberger. He did not play last week and was held to two catches for nine yards in his only meeting with these Cleveland Browns, but don't let that steer you away.
The Browns have allowed the fourth-most DK points to tight ends this season, most recently permitting Vance McDonald to tally 5 catches and 33 yards on 6 targets. Give that to Ebron and his yards-after-catch ability, not to mention touchdown upside, and you have a fantastic play at the tight end spot.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.