4 NFL DraftKings Values for the Divisional Round
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Lamar Jackson and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Divisional Round lineups.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Price: $5,300
Projected Points: 18.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.42
On this four-game playoff slate, there are three quarterbacks priced below the $6,000 mark, and Baker Mayfield checks in second among them. His salary has been reduced for a third straight week, which would suggest a downturn on the road as the Cleveland Browns combat the Kansas City Chiefs. But could Mayfield surprise with a big game?
It's not like he hasn't done that at points all season. Even before last week's three-touchdown game that saw him produce 22.82 DraftKings points, he has three games of more than 30 DK points and another above the 20-point threshold. He's attempted at least 30 passes in all but one of those, and given the setup of this week's matchup he will have to do that again.
With the Chiefs favored by 10 at NFL odds, Cleveland sports a 23.5 implied total in what figures to be negative game script. To add to that, KC is last on the slate in pass defensive, according to our metrics. The Browns will likely go home after this one, but whether they win or lose doesn't matter if Mayfield has enough volume to turn in a good fantasy day.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Price: $4,500
Projected Points: 13.5
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.00
The Baltimore Ravens boast a very tough overall defense. Our rankings have them fourth in total defense, sixth against the pass and third at stopping the run this season. But for all that it's hard to ignore the obvious value in Devin Singletary.
Buffalo has no choice but to give Singletary the brunt of the work for their Divisional Round game with fellow back Zack Moss set to miss the rest of the playoffs with an ankle injury. After all, Singletary played 89%, 89% and 63% of snaps in the three games Moss missed between Weeks 3 and 5. He would go on to tally 16.1, 18.7 and 4.3 DK points in that stretch.
By that alone, Singletary would be a good value. The thing is, his roster percentage could be low given Baltimore's success against the run, meaning those who play him for his ability to catch out of the backfield could reap the rewards.
Rashard Higgins, WR, Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Price: $4,100
Projected Points: 10.7
Projected Value: 2.60
If you're opting for the value quarterback, why not pair him with the cheaper of his two top options on the outside: Rashard Higgins. Although Jarvis Landry is the team's number-one target, that might be to his detriment for Sunday's contest. By way of our advanced stats page, the Chiefs rank 2nd against opposing WR1's, but they check in 27th versus fantasy WR2's.
That could give Higgins somewhere around the seven targets he saw a week ago, but there's upside for more, too. The Cleveland wideout has enjoyed two games of nine-plus targets, averaging 20.2 DK points in those games. And he added another 20-point outing back in Week 7. Higgins hitting his projection would make him a worthwhile play, particularly for cash games, however, if you're looking to take down a tournament or GPP a 20-point game is in the realm of possibilities.
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Price: $3,100
Projected Points: 6.0
Projected Value: 1.94
Of all NFL teams, the Bills ended the regular season tied fourth in pass percentage when the game is within seven points. Sharp Football Stats also tells us that their 58% pass rate was third when leading by any amount and tied for first when leading by at least seven this year.
The Ravens' defense should force them to go through the air as frequent as ever. That's great for Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and -- of course -- Josh Allen, but Dawson Knox gets the same boost to his floor and ceiling. And the best part about it is that he's cheap. His salary is $100 above Tyler Higbee, who is low man among the starting tight ends on this slate.
His offense carries a 26-point implied total that is tied for third on the slate as the Bills check in as 2.5-point favorites on their home turf. A couple of catches and a touchdown could have Knox unlock the key to a slate-busting lineup.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
