Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Super Bowl LV
We know by now how good this Super Bowl can be.
The over/under is 55.5 points, and the spread is a neat 3.0 points in favor of the defending champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. Can Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get it done?
Time will tell, of course, but when you're constructing your single-game lineups on FanDuel, it's important to make some assumptions with each lineup.
Will the Chiefs run away with it? Probably makes sense to load up on the Chiefs. What if the Bucs pound the rock against a poor run defense and play volume -- and passing stats -- are low? That's going to affect things.
You can simply leverage our Sharpstack single-game optimizer for correlated lineup plays based on how the game unfolds, and it's never a bad idea to brush up on some single-game perfect lineup trends.
If you've wanted to see the bird's eye view of each player's range of outcomes, well, you've come to the right place.
High-Level Simulation Results
I simulated this game a thousand times -- using numberFire's projections -- to see some high-level takeaways. Here's what I found. I'm including the frequency of instances when a player led the game in FanDuel points (and would be the MVP in a single-game perfect lineup) and finished in the top five (ostensibly to get inside the single-game perfect).
I'm also adding the top-two rate (for MVP and PRO position consideration) and the top-six rate for Single Game PRO's added flex spot.
I'll update these closer to kick off once we get more information on the key injury situations. Check back here and/or hit up Sharpstack to get updated information on Sunday.
| Player | Salary | Median FDP |
Top Score% |
Top-2 Score% |
Top-5 Score% |
Top-6 Score% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $16,500 | 22.5 | 39.8% | 58.6% | 85.3% | 88.7% |
| Tom Brady | $15,000 | 19.1 | 21.3% | 41.0% | 74.4% | 80.3% |
| Travis Kelce | $14,500 | 17.3 | 14.5% | 32.5% | 67.1% | 73.6% |
| Tyreek Hill | $14,000 | 16.0 | 11.0% | 25.8% | 59.5% | 68.6% |
| Chris Godwin | $12,000 | 12.6 | 4.0% | 12.0% | 38.3% | 48.0% |
| Leonard Fournette | $12,500 | 12.0 | 3.8% | 10.9% | 37.7% | 44.8% |
| Mike Evans | $11,500 | 11.0 | 2.0% | 6.6% | 31.6% | 41.0% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $10,000 | 9.1 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 18.4% | 24.3% |
| Ronald Jones II | $8,000 | 8.6 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 16.0% | 24.6% |
| Antonio Brown | $9,500 | 8.6 | 1.0% | 3.6% | 15.9% | 21.9% |
| Darrel Williams | $9,000 | 8.6 | 0.6% | 1.9% | 15.7% | 21.4% |
| Harrison Butker | $8,500 | 9.3 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 14.0% | 21.0% |
| Ryan Succop | $8,500 | 8.1 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 8.1% | 13.7% |
| Sammy Watkins | $7,500 | 6.4 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 7.2% | 10.7% |
| Mecole Hardman | $7,500 | 5.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% |
| Rob Gronkowski | $6,500 | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% |
| Cameron Brate | $7,000 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% |
| Scotty Miller | $6,500 | 2.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
