Super Bowl LV: Correlated Player Props to Consider
When talking daily fantasy, the word "correlation" pops up all the time.
If Patrick Mahomes blows up, it's then more likely that at least one of Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce will have a big day. Domination from Mahomes would also increase the odds the opposing team has to throw, boosting appeal in their pass-catchers.
There's big value in deciding how a game will play out and basing your DFS opinions around that assumption. The same is true with player props.
Because we have so many markets available to us for Super Bowl LV, there are a bunch of ways we can exploit these correlations. You can do that in the form of a same-game parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook, though the odds there will account for the interconnectivity between the two events. You can also choose to play bets individually and give yourself increased wiggle room.
Banking on correlated bets is risky because if you assume incorrectly, you're likely going to lose a healthy number of them. But if you feel like you have a good read on a situation and make the right guess, it'll make your sweat a bit easier on Sunday.
With all the markets available to us, let's check out some correlated props you could consider for Sunday's game. This is an especially pertinent conversation when it comes to each team's backfield.
Buying Into Leonard Fournette's Increased Role
Looking at the props market at FanDuel Sportsbook, there's lingering skepticism that Leonard Fournette is truly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' new lead back. His rushing yardage prop is just 48.5, and you don't get that when you're the unquestioned top guy. Some of the tea leaves could allow us to be more bullish on Fournette and -- thus -- bearish on Ronald Jones.
With the two-week gap between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, we know Jones is fully healthy. But that was also the case prior to the conference championship. Jones practiced in full that Friday and was taken off the injury report. Even with that, his role actually got worse from where it was the week prior when he was questionable going in.
|Jones' Workload||Snap Rate||Carries||Targets|
Even with a cleaner bill of health, his role didn't expand. They just felt better leaning on Fournette.
Fournette's role expanded most inside the red zone. He had two carries and a target there in the conference championship, giving him three of the team's five total red-zone opportunities. He cashed in with a bruising touchdown, likely helping solidify that role.
Based on the conference championships, it seems as if Fournette has taken over as the top back. That could lead to some softness in his props market and overconfidence in Jones'. Here are bets that could be impacted by this swing.
|Props in Play||Vig|
|Fournette First Touchdown||+1000|
|Fournette Any Time Touchdown||+125|
|Fournette Rushing Yards Over 48.5||-110|
|Ronald Jones Rushing Yards Under 35.5||-110|
|Fournette Total Yards Over 78.5||-112|
|Jones Total Yards Under 41.5||-112|
|Fournette Rush Attempts Over 11.5||-108|
As mentioned, if you're going to pull a same-game parlay on these situations, just know the sportsbooks are likely accounting for these correlations. But a same-game parlay of Fournette to score and top 48.5 rushing yards with Jones going under 35.5 rushing yards pays out at +608. That seems to be a fair number if you have a similar read on this backfield.
Remaining Skeptical of Darrel Williams
Buying into what we saw in the conference championship for the Chiefs would put us on Darrel Williams' props. But this situation is different from what we had with the Bucs.
Namely, Clyde Edwards-Helaire wasn't fully healthy yet. That was his first game back from an ankle and hip injury that had held him out the previous month. He was limited in practice that week leading into the game and was listed as questionable. That's very different from Jones' situation.
Edwards-Helaire is practicing in full, so his health is better now than it was. He also out-snapped Williams in that game and ran seven more routes, per Pro Football Focus. Although Williams out-carried Edwards-Helaire, both guys were heavily involved, and the pendulum could swing more toward Edwards-Helaire now. Again, this gives us a wide array of routes for exploiting the potential shift.
|Props in Play||Vig|
|Edwards-Helaire First Touchdown||+1200|
|Edwards-Helaire Any Time Touchdown||+165|
|Williams Rushing Yards Under 29.5||-115|
|Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Over 30.5||-115|
|Williams Receiving Yards Under 13.5||-128|
|Edwards-Helaire Receiving Yards Over 18.5||-110|
|Williams Total Yards Under 42.5||-124|
|Edwards-Helaire Total Yards Over 50.5||-112|
|Williams Rush Attempts Under 7.5||-108|
|Edwards-Helaire Rush Attempts Over 8.5||-108|
Here, FanDuel Sportsbook seems to be of a similar mind that Edwards-Helaire and Williams are relatively even. Still, if we assume his role goes up, we can take advantage of these markets.
It's tough to get too jazzed about Edwards-Helaire's rushing numbers because the Bucs' rush defense is so good and the Chiefs' offensive line is banged up. That does impact how we view this if we're going to pick the optimal markets to enter.
We can, instead, focus on receiving and some unders. If you pair Edwards-Helaire over 18.5 receiving yards, Williams under 29.5 rushing yards, and Edwards-Helaire as an any time touchdown scorer, the same-game parlay is +640. With the potential for a juiced-up role on Sunday, that's a mighty fair number.
Gronkowski v. Brate
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Bucs leaned heavily on their tight ends, pumping seven targets to Rob Gronkowski and six to Cameron Brate. That could get us into some overs for either guy. (NOTE: Brate has since injured his back and did not practice on Friday. This lowers his outlook significantly and could result in an increased interest in Gronkowski's props.)
But Gronkowski's role has taken a hit since then. Specifically in the playoffs, Brate has had the better role. The route data here is via Pro Football Focus.
The route discrepancy could lead you to think that Brate is due for usage regression. But with how productive he has been, the Bucs have little incentive to stop pushing balls his direction.
Even with Brate running so hot, FanDuel Sportsbook is still viewing Brate and Gronkowski as relatively even. Here are some markets that stand out if we assume the Brate resurgence continues.
|Props in Play||Vig|
|Brate First Touchdown||+1900|
|Brate Any Time Touchdown||+240|
|Gronkowski Receiving Yards Under 31.5||-110|
|Brate Receiving Yards Over 30.5||-110|
|Gronkowski Total Receptions Under 2.5||-118|
|Brate Total Receptions Over 2.5||-154|
|Gronkowski Longest Reception Under 15.5 Yards||-112|
|Brate Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards||-112|
Here, we can be a bit more selective because the juice is heavy in some spots. But even going with just Brate to score and Gronkowski under 31.5 receiving yards is +523 as a same-game parlay. With how the playoffs have gone thus far, that's not a bad combo at all.