Davis Mills Has a Wide Range of Outcomes at the NFL Level

Mills' limited experience in college is concerning, but he's a touted prospect. What might he do in the NFL?

Davis Mills was a high-level, five-star recruit out of high school, and despite limited time at Stanford (he appeared in only 14 career games for the Cardinal with just 438 passing attempts), the Houston Texans drafted the quarterback 67th overall.

Part of the reason for Mills' limited tenure at Stanford was that he simply played behind K.J. Costello, who wound up getting hurt in 2019. Mills' performance in Costello's absence -- 1,960 yards on 241 attempts for a quarterback rating of 144.8 -- led to Costello's transfer.

Mills' profile gives him a wide range of draft possibilities. What can he bring to Houston?

Player Comparisons

Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Mills. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.

Davis Mills Profile Comparisons Similarity
Brock Osweiler 88.1%
Dave Ragone 87.5%
Chris Simms 87.5%
John Beck 84.6%
Kyle Trask 84.0%
Ryan Finley 83.7%
Kellen Clemens 83.4%
Jacoby Brissett 83.2%
Connor Cook 82.4%
Charlie Frye 82.3%

Gdula's Take: Mills was a five-star recruit with a mixed bag in college, resulting in a scary age-adjusted experience score and some middling efficiency. It's not a great combination for success.

Betting on the Texans

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Texans are listed at +13000 to win the Super Bowl -- the second-worst odds -- and +1600 to take the AFC South. They have a win total projection of 4.5 on FOX Bet.