Nico Collins to the Texans: An Interesting Profile and a Wide Range of Outcomes

Collins is big and athletic but has some production concerns. What does that mean for his NFL future?

The Houston Texans are going through a rebuild. They drafted a quarterback with their first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which happened at pick 67 with Stanford quarterback Davis Mills, who profiles to have a wide range of outcomes.

So does third-round receiver Nico Collins, a big-bodied prospect from Michigan.

Who does he compare to, and what does it mean for the Texans?

Player Comparisons

Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Collins. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.

Nico Collins Profile Comparisons Similarity
Mack Hollins 92.4%
DK Metcalf 91.7%
Miles Boykin 91.3%
Josh Gordon 90.2%
Jaleel Scott 89.1%
Kris Durham 89.0%
Tee Higgins 88.7%
Bryan Edwards 87.0%
Dorial Green-Beckham 86.8%
Donte Moncrief 86.7%

Gdula's Take: Remember that D.K. Metcalf was a top-20 consensus pick who fell to pick 64, which skews the comp here a bit for Collins, who went a bit earlier than his consensus rank. But Collins is big, broke out early, is athletic and had market share and efficiency concerns. There are a lot of problematic names on this list in addition to some good ones.

Collins' 2021 Fantasy Football Projection

JJ Zachariason's initial projections for Collins include 48 receptions, 553 yards, and 3.4 touchdowns, making him the PPR WR75 for the season.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Texans are listed at +13000 to win the Super Bowl and +1600 to take the AFC South, and they have a win total projection of 4.5 -- with -118 odds on the under -- on FOX Bet.