Fantasy Football: Diontae Johnson's Volume Makes Him One of the Most Reliable Wide Receivers in 2021

In a sometimes unpredictable game like fantasy football, volume is king. When we can identify patterns when and where wide receivers will be targeted, it provides fantasy pass-catchers with a safe floor and an immovable spot in our weekly lineups. We know about the secure opportunity for volume kings like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Tyreek Hill, but will 2021 be the year we have to make room on the throne for Diontae Johnson?

Just because Johnson had a high-volume floor in 2020, does that mean it will continue in 2021? Coming into the season there are questions about drops, about an increased focus on Najee Harris and the run game, and concerns that Ben Roethlisberger's body might collapse under the weight of old age while on the field.

Can we trust Johnson to navigate through these issues and deliver a high-floor and high-ceiling in 17 games? Let's dig into the data and see what we can expect from the 25-year-old target hog.

What About All Those Drops?

Essentially, there were two primary themes circling around Johnson's name in 2020: targets and drops. Let's address the drops first. Since it is not an officially tracked NFL statistic, there is some discrepancy about how many drops Johnson had in 2020. Some places say he had 16, some say 13, and others say 11. Where they are all consistent, however, is that they all agree that Johnson led the league in drops.

That's not good. What also wasn't good is that several of these drops came in high-profile games or high-leverage moments that magnified the damage he did to the Steelers' win probability by not catching the ball. It got so bad late in the season that Johnson's drops became a running joke in fantasy football circles.

Trigger warning for Steelers fans and Diontae Johnson / Eric Ebron fantasy owners:

ABC is televising a ball drop tonight.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 1, 2021

But it's doesn't take much analytical brainpower to discover that the only reason Johnson would have that many drops is because of the massive volume he received. He had the seventh-most targets among all wide receivers despite missing one game and playing less than 25% of the snaps in two others. In the 13 games where he played more than 25% of the Steelers' snaps, he averaged 10.8 targets per game. That's a 16-game pace of 173.5, which would have led the league.

That elite volume is what led Johnson to only ranking 16th in drop rate (drops/targets) in 2020, according to Player Profiler. So while the aggregate total may burn our eyes a little bit, the rate is not something to be overly concerned with. Drops are a stat that isn't particularly sticky anyway and is not an indicator of fantasy success. A study done by Kenny Hyttenhove at QB List found that drops are only about 27% correlated to fantasy output, which they label as a very weak correlation.

As far as the people whose opinions matter? Head Coach Mike Tomlin recently said he hasn't "given a lot of thought about it. Last year is last year. Everyone starts anew as far as I'm concerned." It doesn't sound like the Steelers are preparing to game-plan him out of anything this year. It's as simple as this: everyone is going to drop some passes. Those drops are likely to increase the more involved you are in the offense. Unless you are an alien like, Davante Adams or something.

Davante Adams: 134 targets without a drop

The longest active streak in the NFL pic.twitter.com/K6uoBPs6XE
— PFF (@PFF) December 16, 2020

Expect the volume to remain elite in 2020. And don't expect there to be a continued drops problem; Johnson was down at #79 in drop rate in 2019. It's not an issue he has dealt with his whole career.

Not Only Volume, But Efficiency

One of the frequent attacks on Johnson, besides the drops of course, is that he has the Keenan Allen Syndrome. That's where a player can rank fourth in targets (Allen had 149 in 2020), fifth in receptions (Allen had 100), but rank 17th in receiving yards (Allen had "only" 992). Simply put, Johnson must just be another possession receiver that is targeted on short routes and underneath-the-zone plays so his yards per reception will always look mediocre.

To that end, here is every wide receiver in 2020 who had at least 130 targets sorted by their receiving yards per reception.

So compared to the upper echelon of receivers, yes, Johnson ranks lower on the yards-per-catch rates. But this is the elite of the elite. These are wide receivers who command the ball and also have elite downfield separation abilities. The fact that Johnson is even in the same category as these players should speak volumes about his role in the offense. Simple yards per time he catches the ball doesn't tell the whole story and certainly doesn't close the door on how well he will perform in the offense this year.

Even just the general idea of total targets or total catches is slightly misleading. There may be some plays where Johnson is on the bench for a variety of reasons: injury, third-and-very-long, substitution. Yet those still count towards overall target share outputs.

The more efficient Hog Rate captures the targets per snaps on the field. In this metric, Johnson led the whole NFL at 20.7%. What this tells us is, more than any other player in the league, the Steelers are looking Johnson's way when he is on the field. While he may never have the most yards per reception or yards per route run (he was 49th in that category last year), Johnson is going to be flooded with opportunity.

That opportunity was often not the highest quality coming from Roethlisberger last year. Johnson's target quality rating ranked 88th in 2020 and he only ranked 65th in catchable target rate last year, both leading to him leaving 2020 with the 19th most unrealized air yards. The arm strength and accuracy for Roethlisberger are certainly a concern this year, but the volume should cover a multitude of inaccuracy sins in the offense.

Diontae Johnson's 2021 Fantasy Football Projections

Despite concerns about drops, a flashy new running back, or a noodle-armed quarterback, no one is actually ranking Johnson as if he is going to fall off a cliff this year. Coming into draft season, numberFire's projected rankings interestingly have Diontae Johnson as the WR27 and teammate Chase Claypool as WR26. Our editor-in-chief JJ Zachariason thinks Claypool is due for a monster breakout year, and frankly, that might be the biggest concern to Johnson's overall value.

If Claypool really is a transcendent talent and takes a massive leap in year two, he will demand more of the target share, which will surely eat into Johnson's opportunity.

For now, however, we have them both ranked as WR3 or Flex plays for your fantasy roster. Johnson's projections come in at 151 targets, 96 catches, 964 receiving yards, and just seven touchdowns. Considering every team is adding a 17th game this year, those numbers actually project Johnson to take a small hit in his overall share of the offense. With the addition of Najee Harris to an offense that had the 31st ranked rushing offense last season, per numberFire's metrics, expect Tomlin to at least try and balance out the offense somewhat after forcing the ball through the air in 2020.

But if that doesn't work, our projected matchups rank the Pittsburgh wide receiver corps as having the easiest seasonal schedule in 2021. If that leads to similar volume as 2020 for Johnson, the sky is the limit for his fantasy production. Invest with confidence in any kind of point-per-reception format.