Thursday Night Football Betting: Where Is the Public Siding in the Cowboys-Buccaneers Opener?
Thursday Night Football opens the 2021 NFL season, and we will be treated to a doozie between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Besides Skip Bayless, pretty much everyone else seems to be pretty jazzed by this contest.
Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Points Could Be Flying On the Board
Taking a look at our power rankings, these are two strong offenses, with the Cowboys ranking fourth and the Buccaneers checking inside the top-10.
Quarterback play likely will be the strength of tonight's game -- not that the running backs are poor by any stretch, too. Benjamin Button, otherwise known as Tom Brady, will be under center yet again for Tampa, and with over 79,000 career passing yards, including a 4,633-yard, 40-touchdown season in 2020, he should be ready to let it rip. Additionally, Dak Prescott seems to be over a nagging shoulder issue and ready to go full bore this evening.
In terms of pace? Try to keep your bathroom breaks to a sheer minimum. Looking at data from last season, the Cowboys rank as the league's fastest team, and Tampa clocks in fifth overall, meaning there should be plenty of snaps under center.
Hopefully, there won't be any additional COVID-19 issues to deal with as the day goes along. The Bucs get Ndamukong Suh back, but the Cowboys will miss Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin.
Bets to Consider
Looking at oddsFire, the betting information we see is peculiar. Normally, a publicly backed team like Dallas sees the lion's share of the betting action, but 58% of bets and 69% of cash has come in on the Bucs.
Our algorithm loves the Super Bowl champs, projecting them to take the contest a whopping 84.0% of the time, which means the public backing the moneyline 80% of the time is actually a solid choice. But thanks to some heavy juice (-460), we have the moneyline as only a two-star bet.
For a prop bet to target, peep Mike Evans and his over/under of 64.5 yards. With teammate Chris Godwin nursing an injury this week, attention turns towards Evans and teammate Antonio Brown in the passing game, and they could see an uptick in volume -- especially with the Cowboys ranking as one of the worst pass defenses in the league a year ago.
Historical Betting Trends
-- Historically, the opening game has been kind to defending Super Bowl champions. In the last 10 of these contests, they have gone 6-3-1 against-the-spread (ATS).
-- Interestingly, the Buccaneers were tough to deal with at home but were only 1-5-2 ATS in the regular season as favorites last year.
-- Dallas has been bad in this spot as the road team. In their last 10 games, they are 2-8 ATS.
-- The 'Boys have owned this series as of late, going 7-1 straight up in the last eight games.
