FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4

Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.

As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.

Now, let's run through some of the top plays in Week 4.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,700 on FanDuel): It's Josh Allen ($8,500) who tops numberFire's quarterback projections in what should be an easy matchup at home against Houston -- except it might be too easy, with Buffalo favored by a massive 17.5 points. There's little doubt that Allen should do well here, but his ceiling could take a hit if this one gets out of hand too quickly and the Bills are just milking the clock late in the game.

On the other hand, that's less of a worry for Mahomes against Philadelphia, and Mahomes is just a hair behind Allen in our projections, with both pegged for 25-plus FanDuel points.

While Kansas City is still a sizable 7.0-point road favorite, their defense has been absolutely abysmal, which should help keep the Eagles within striking distance. Kansas City ranks 32nd in schedule-adjusted defense, per numberFire's metrics, which isn't a huge surprise considering they're tied with winless Detroit for a league-worst 31.7 points allowed per game. A slate-high 54.5 total suggests that the Chiefs ought to find themselves in yet another shootout this weekend.

As for Mahomes, it's telling that even in last week's down effort -- at least by his standards -- he still threw for three touchdowns for the third straight game and ended up with 24.9 FanDuel points. He partially saved his fantasy day through four carries for 45 yards, a reminder that while Mahomes isn't an elite rusher, he can still chip in extra points on the ground here and there.

Among all the quarterbacks on the slate, only our next guy has averaged more FanDuel points per game than Mahomes through the season's opening weeks.

Kyler Murray ($8,200): The Cardinals-Rams contest is also showing a 54.5 total, but with a mere 4.0-point spread in favor of Los Angeles, setting the stage for another high-scoring game environment.

While the Rams were one of the best defenses in 2020 and could be a strong unit again this year, they're coming off a game in which they allowed Tom Brady to chuck it for 432 yards, so we shouldn't be too concerned with Murray's ability to put up fantasy points in this one.

Murray's posted two of the top three FanDuel performances at the position this season (Allen has the other), and while his rushing yardage totals haven't been crazy (yet!) at 19, 31, and 20 yards, he's still boosting his output with a rushing score in all three weeks.

But he's also notably getting the job done through the air, tallying the sixth-best Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back among quarterbacks and the fourth-best adjusted yards per attempt.

Perhaps the only negative surrounding Murray in DFS these days is that he's really spreading the ball around amongst a deeper corp of receivers, making his offense tougher to nail down for stacks.

Jalen Hurts ($7,900): As noted earlier, Kansas City's defense has really been struggling, so it naturally stands to reason that their opponent is in a good spot. We've now seen both Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson post 30-plus FanDuel points against the Chiefs, and while Baker Mayfield had a more modest output in Week 1, he still piled up 321 passing yards.

Hurts has admittedly been erratic as a passer thus far, but the fantasy value of his legs has been on full display as the QB4 in FanDuel scoring. Only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yardage at the position, as Hurts is averaging 8.7 carries and 59.7 rushing yards per game and notched a touchdown on the ground in Week 2.

He's cleared 20 FanDuel points in all three weeks, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him have a spike week in one of the top game environments of the weekend.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($10,200): In a complete shocker (okay, not really), Henry leads numberFire's running back projections as the only back pegged for 20 points. With his added receiving work this season, Henry is averaging a slate-high 35.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), and with both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones now dealing with injuries, it's hard to envision any scenario where a healthy Henry doesn't rack up an immense workload versus the Jets.

It remains to be seen if Dalvin Cook ($9,500) -- the next highest-salaried back -- will return this week, but he seems to be trending in the right direction, and he's logged a robust 31.0 adjusted opportunities in his two games. Even if he's back, there's the risk he doesn't garner his usual workload, so keep close tabs on this situation, but Cook should certainly pique our interest in tournaments.

Alvin Kamara ($9,000): Kamara is having an unusual campaign in the early going, as he's recorded 28, 20, and 32 adjusted opportunities, with the two high totals coming in games with positive game scripts. Sure, we typically prefer our backs to have the lead, but this is unfamiliar territory for Kamara, who's always been game-script proof due to his elite receiving work. Instead, he's only averaging 4.7 targets per game so far (7.1 in 2020), while his ground work has jumped up to 17.3 carries per game (12.5 in 2020).

Now, the Saints are 7.0-point home favorites over the winless Giants, so Kamara should be locked into a heavy workload in Week 4 at least, and he's projected for the second-best fantasy output at the position. It's also possible that Week 2's low output ends up being more of a fluke, as that was a horrendous day all around for Jameis Winston against the Panthers.

Still, Kamara's receiving work is something to keep an eye on, as that could definitely affect our long-term outlook for him in 2021.

Najee Harris ($8,200): I'm torn when it comes to Harris at this salary because Pittsburgh's offense is so underwhelming, and they have a poor 19.50 implied total as road 'dogs at Green Bay -- but how often do you see a running back come away with 19 targets in a game? That helped him to a ridiculous 52 adjusted opportunities in Week 3, and he's now averaging 31.3 for the year. He's also first among all backs in both snap rate (96.3%) and route rate (78.3%).

All that receiving work came about due to the Steelers getting decimated by injuries from their wideouts, but with Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster both limited at practice on Thursday, this could set the stage for Harris to get peppered with targets again, particularly as 6.5-point underdogs.

Aaron Jones ($7,400): If we throw out the Packers' pitiful Week 1 performance that tanked the whole offense, Jones has averaged a solid 26.0 adjusted opportunities over the last two games. While that may not hang with some of his brethren, Jones is usually good for a few slate-breaking performances every year, as he reminded us in Week 2 (38.5 points).

Admittedly, chances are this isn't the ideal game for one of those spike weeks opposite the aforementioned Steelers -- this game has a mediocre 45.5 total and rates poorly in pace -- but Jones' encouraging red-zone usage points to him being a touchdown machine this year. He's tied for the league-lead in red-zone rushes (13) with an 86.7% red-zone rush share while also already tacking on 5 red-zone targets, as well.

Only Henry has more FanDuel points than Jones at the position this year, making Jones sure look like an intriguing value at this mid-range salary.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,300): Is Hubbard poised to become this year's short-term Mike Davis? We saw Davis perform well in place of Christian McCaffrey in 2020, and Hubbard could be slated for a similar boost as McCaffrey's backup this time around.

With CMC playing just 30.0% of the snaps due to last week's injury, Hubbard would ultimately finish with 11 carries and 5 targets (21 adjusted opportunities) on a 55.7% snap rate. Royce Freeman comparatively saw just 7 adjusted opportunities and 14.3% of the snaps, so Hubbard clearly looks like the lead guy with a sizable role while McCaffrey is out.

This should also be a fantasy-friendly game against Dallas, with the two teams showing a combined 51.5 total. Hubbard rates as the top point-per-dollar running back value in numberFire's projections.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($8,600): I don't love how high Kupp's salary is getting, but it's also hard to argue with the connection he's formed with Matthew Stafford, leading all wideouts in FanDuel scoring by a wide margin. The usage checks out, too, averaging 11 targets per game with a team-high 35.5% target share and 33.4% air yards share. He's going to stop putting up 20-plus points every game at some point, but a slate-best total suggests he keeps the streak going another week.

That being said, Kupp will almost certainly be popular, so Robert Woods ($6,200) remains an alternative way to attack this game. Woods still ranks second on the team in target share (20.4%) and air yards share (22.8%), so he's still seeing a big enough slice of the pie to come through with his own big game at some point, similar to what we saw out of Emmanuel Sanders for the Bills last week.

Tyreek Hill ($8,200): Hill and Davante Adams ($8,100) follow Kupp in salary, but it's Hill who leads all of them in numberFire's model. We all know what Adams is capable of on a weekly basis, but Hill's in the far more alluring game environment.

The Kansas City wideout has underwhelmed in back-to-back weeks, but this Mahomes passing attack still runs through him and Travis Kelce ($8,200), and Hill's usage remains as strong as ever with a 25.2% target share and 38.3% air yards share.

Justin Jefferson ($7,800): Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield aren't quarterbacks we need to have any interest in for DFS, but that doesn't mean we can't stack their weapons in a game with a 51.5 total.

Adam Thielen ($7,500) may lead Minnesota in receiving touchdowns, but it's Jefferson we want first, owning a team-high 25.6% target share and 45.4% air yards share. Jefferson is projected for a top-five wideout score in numberFire's model.

On the other side, Odell Beckham ($6,600) is the top guy to consider for Cleveland. Beckham made his 2021 debut last week, and with Jarvis Landry out, he immediately became the focal point of the passing attack, with his 9 targets accounting for a 31.0% target share and 50.9% air yards share. Landry remains out for the short-term on injured reserve, so Beckham should continue to see plenty of looks his way this week.

D.J. Moore ($7,300): In the low $7,000 range, Calvin Ridley ($7,200) pops up in our projections as a solid value, though while his overall volume remains strong, I worry about his upside in an underwhelming offense that simply isn't throwing deep as often.

But for just $100 more, we can also get up to Moore, who could be in the midst of the breakout campaign many have been waiting for. Moore has been a target hog for Carolina, soaking up a 30.7% target share and 40.7% air yards share, and he could blow up in a potential shootout with Dallas. Moore's yet to crack the 20-point fantasy barrier, but that could change this weekend.

DeVonta Smith ($5,900): Smith hasn't done a whole lot in the box score lately, but he projects as a top point-per-dollar value in numberFire's projections and should be a go-to in Eagles game stacks.

Despite the lackluster outputs over the past couple of weeks, his volume still leads the way in this receiving corp, as he's tops in target share (22.3%), air yards share (43.4%), snap rate (89.1%), and route rate (93.2%). While Hurts does a lot of his damage on the ground, he'll likely need to air it out to keep up with Mahomes, which should lead to more opportunities for Smith to cash in on his role.

Jalen Reagor ($5,500) is a secondary option, but at his low salary, he's also worth including in stacks at a 20.2% target share and 24.5% air yards share, both second-best on Philadelphia.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee ($5,900): As always, Travis Kelce laps the field in our tight end projections, and he's an obvious choice when you can fit him in. George Kittle ($6,700) is the best consolation prize, but his injury status is beginning to look shaky entering the weekend.

The position starts to get more jumbled after those two, so you may feel compelled to pay down if possible. Once you get past $6,000, Higbee is one possibility as another way to gain exposure to a fantasy-rich Cardinals-Rams contest.

After a quiet Week 2, Higbee bounced back with five targets and a touchdown last week, and while his 12.9% target share for the year remains pretty meh, he's still near the top at the position in snap rate (79.4%) and route rate (79.4%), so he still has a key role in this passing game. It may not amount to much in other weeks, but Matthew Stafford should be plenty busy going toe-to-toe with Kyler Murray and Arizona this week, so Higbee has a reasonable shot of finding the end zone again.

Mike Gesicki ($5,400): Rostering anyone on this Miami offense feels a little gross, but Gesicki is coming off a 12-target game, which should absolutely have our attention when we're at this salary point.

In fact, it may surprise you that over the past two weeks, Gesicki has the third-best target share at the position (20.2%), and even if we include his inexplicable zero-point performance in Week 1, he's still at a respectable 17.2%, which is just behind T.J. Hockenson.

This is an unappealing game versus Indianapolis (42.5 total), so Gesicki isn't a great bet for a touchdown, but his recent bump in volume could still play at this salary.

Defenses

Green Bay D/ST ($4,200): The Buffalo D/ST ($5,000) has the slate's top projection against Houston, which shouldn't come as a shocker. But let's face it, getting up to that salary won't be easy. If you're more strapped for cash, Green Bay is a possibility versus Pittsburgh, though.

The Packers are favored by nearly a touchdown at home, and forcing an ancient Ben Roethlisberger to throw to what could be a hobbled receiving group sounds like a good recipe to accumulate fantasy points for the opposing defense. In the Steelers' two losses, Roethlisberger has been forced to throw 40 and 58 times, leading to a combined 3 interceptions and 6 sacks.

Miami D/ST ($4,000): The Dolphins are only favored by 1.5 points in a low-total game at home, which doesn't necessarily lend itself to the pass-heavy game script we're typically hoping to attack.

But a barely-healthy Carson Wentz was only able to muster 194 passing yards on 37 attempts last week against Tennessee, and we've seen Wentz be a dream for opposing defenses in the past. Last season, he endured the most sacks (50) and interceptions (15) despite playing just 12 games. Miami rates as one of the better values in our projections.