FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Monday Night (Bills at Titans)
When I anticipated that Week 5's Monday Night Football contest would be closer than anticipated, I did not expect a "game of the year" contender in Baltimore. Week 6 brings another, as the potential MVP favorite Josh Allen leads the red-hot Bills into Tennessee to face off with Derrick Henry and the Titans. Points should be on the menu in bunches.
For those unfamiliar, single-game football slates on FanDuel feature five positional flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, roster construction instead features an "MVP" slot accompanied by four flex slots. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial to balance floor and ceiling for optimal lineup builds.
With that in mind, let's preview the single-game slate between Buffalo and Tennessee on FanDuel.
A healthy, 53.5-point total awaits what should be a fun Monday night between these two top squads. The Bills are six-point road favorites, but laying nearly a touchdown to "King Henry" at home is no slam dunk. Even with points expected, the under may be a sharp play with the Bills and Titans ranking just 21st and 15th, respectively, in situation-neutral pass rate.
numberFire's model is calling it a full week early. It has no conviction on either the total or spread, as its sub-51% probability marks on both bets imply that the -110 odds on each side are appropriate. With that the case, we should play this slate straight up.
While Buffalo enters decently healthy, the Tennessee offensive efficiency is very much in question due to the status of its pass-catchers. Julio Jones participated in full practices with his hamstring injury this week, which leaves his playing status finalized, but he is always a risk for a mid-game injury at this stage of his career. A.J. Brown is in much worse shape, as he is officially questionable with a non-COVID illness for this contest, but he may also see limited snaps through Week 10 with his own hamstring injury.
Here are some key information pieces and team leaders to know before the contest about the two teams:
|Passing Net Expected Points
Per Drop Back
|Josh Allen (+0.22)||Ryan Tannehill (+0.00)|
|Rushing NEP Per Carry||Josh Allen (+0.68)||Derrick Henry (+0.07)|
|Reception NEP Per Target||Dawson Knox (+0.93)||Julio Jones (+0.66)|
Defensive NEP Per Play
|RB Adjusted Opportunities
(Carries Plus 2x Targets)
|Zack Moss (16.5)||Derrick Henry (34.4)|
|Josh Allen (65.3%)||Derrick Henry (40.1%)|
|Routes Run %||Emmanuel Sanders (87.3%)||Julio Jones (76.8%)|
|Target Share %||Stefon Diggs (26.4%)||A.J. Brown (20.7%)|
|Air Yards %||Stefon Diggs (35.0%)||A.J. Brown (34.5%)|
Targets Per Game
|Stefon Diggs (3.6)
Emmanuel Sanders (3.6)
|A.J. Brown (2.5)|
Josh Allen ($17,000): Reviewing the Adjusted Defensive NEP stat above, one thing became very apparent formulating a game plan for this slate -- the Bills are good at defense, and the Titans are not. That will make a Bills four-to-one stack my favorite default way of playing this slate, and it may be even somewhat contrarian with Derrick Henry likely to be a priority for many. Turning down Allen at MVP is difficult because Buffalo has so many unique options to score, and one of them could be Allen himself. If Allen (65.3% Rushing Success Rate) scores two touchdowns on the ground, the stack is dead without him. For safety, the Bills' MVP candidate is a cornerstone to start the slate.
Derrick Henry ($15,500): It feels absurd to fade Derrick Henry, but as I mentioned, that is likely my plan of attack. What could go wrong? The path to Henry exploding is obvious -- his workload. His 34.4 adjusted opportunities per game are best in the NFL, and Henry is currently on a pace that would shatter the NFL record for carries in a 16-game season. Add in the extra game, and he likely does post that mark if he remains injury-free. The one semblance of comfort I have fading Henry is Buffalo's rush defense. Buffalo is only allowing 0.01 Rushing NEP per carry to opposing backs, and especially if their offense can get him in a negative game script early, they may be able to keep Henry under 100 rushing yards for the second time this season.
Stefon Diggs ($12,500): A moment of silence for Stefon Diggs' season-long managers, as they likely have been inundated with dozens of awful trade requests. Diggs' peripherals are stronger than his results, as he is tops on the Bills in target share (26.4%) and air yard share (35.0%), but he has failed to eclipse 15 FanDuel points this season. At a reasonable salary, Diggs sees one of his better matchups of the season against the Titans, who allowed 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back (10th-worst in the NFL) to opponents. Allen and Diggs are a priority to stack together with a blowup game coming soon, and that could be Monday night.
Julio Jones ($11,000): Jones comes at a $500 salary discount to A.J. Brown, but he is likely just the better play in a vacuum. Brown has an illness, and as mentioned, his snaps will likely be limited again. That should open the door for Jones to see the most action amongst Tennesee pass-catchers tonight, and he already leads the Titans wideouts in routes run (78.2%) in the three games he has participated in this season. Buffalo is the very worst matchup (-0.23 Passing NEP per drop back to opponents) for a wide receiver, but Jones' workload and obvious talent make him a solid option as a bring-back.
Emmanuel Sanders ($10,000): Players who use both Henry and Allen will likely be forced to choose between Diggs and Sanders, and to that, Sanders' role has been comparable enough to take the salary savings. Sanders ran three more routes than Stefon Diggs in last week's blowout of the Chiefs, and Sanders' air yard share (30.2%) still leaves plenty of room for upside on its own. The salary reduction will likely lead to increased popularity, but on a night where many will choose a single Buffalo pass-catching option, I want both with Cole Beasley (38.9% of Week 5 snaps) fading quickly out of the picture.
Value Plays, Pivots, and Punts
Zack Moss ($9,500): The NFL's most efficient offense finally has a lead back. In the past two weeks, Moss has played 63.2% of Buffalo's snaps compared to Devin Singletary at 36.8%. Both of those marks came in blowouts, as well, which is going to see the starting back pulled from games. Moss has a solid 0.11 Rushing NEP per carry mark on the season, too. The obvious drawback on Moss is that his quarterback will snatch goal-line work from him, but Moss is still eighth in the entire NFL with 3.5 red-zone carries per game. Tennessee's defense has been better against the run (0.01 Rushing NEP per carry to opponents), but his high-leverage work still makes him a great value at this spot.
Dawson Knox ($9,000): I fully expected to dive into this preview saying to fade Knox with touchdown regression coming, but it is far from that simple. Sure, Knox's five receiving touchdowns with a 13.8% target share are not sustainable, but his role is still very good. In the past two games, Knox has actually run one more route than Stefon Diggs the past two weeks, and he also has secured a 22.6% target share in that period. For a tight end, that workload is a dream. In this particular format, his position is irrelevant, but he is still a viable stacking option with Allen, and using Knox with A.J. Brown as a salary tandem instead of Moss and Jones is likely a tremendous game theory pivot in tournaments.
Marcus Johnson ($6,000): If taking the tournament angle of one of the Titans' wideouts being unable to play a good portion of Monday's contest, Marcus Johnson is likely the best option. Johnson actually played more snaps (46) than any Titans receiver last week, even though A.J. Brown ran 4 more routes. That earned him five targets, which was second on the team to Brown's six. If Brown is limited by his illness, or Julio Jones exits the game early with an injury (who could see that happening?), Johnson may be a sneaky way to access a Tennessee offense that may forced into a negative script by the high-flying Bills.