Sunday Night Football Betting: Will Tennessee Cover as a Sizable Road Underdog?

The Los Angeles Rams are 7.0-point home favorites tonight over the Tennessee Titans, per NFL odds. The total is set at 52.5 points.

Our metrics like both of these squads, ranking LA fifth and Tennessee ninth.

Let's dive into some interesting betting angles for this contest.

All Hail Matthew Stafford

The trade for Matthew Stafford looks to have been a stroke of genius. Using our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Stafford ranks first among all quarterbacks with a mark of 0.50 Passing NEP per drop back. He's tossed for nearly 2,500 yards on the young season, including a whopping 22 touchdown passes against only four interceptions.

On the other side of the field, Ryan Tannehill has shouldered less of the offensive burden this season, and he clearly has not been as efficient, either. He owns a clip of 0.10 Passing NEP per drop back. He holds a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has taken 24 sacks. He hasn't been at the peak of his powers, and he'll now be without all-world running back Derrick Henry for possibly the rest of the campaign.

With the injury to Cam Akers in the preseason, Darrell Henderson has emerged as the clear top dog in Rams' the backfield, and he's been really good. So far, he's recorded 507 rushing yards on 110 attempts, and his 0.05 Rushing NEP per rush has been lights out.

Tonight will be the first look at exactly how Tennessee plans to cope with the loss of the aforementioned Henry. Jeremy McNichols and the newly signed Adrian Peterson figure to split the work, with Peterson likely carrying the load on early downs.

Both teams rank in the middle of the pack defensively, per our numbers.

Bets to Consider

With LA a touchdown favorite and the total at 52.5 points, where should you have your money for this one, according to our numbers?

We are projecting this to be a 28.63-23.47 win for the Rams, forecasting the Titans to cover this spread. We think Tennessee covers 55.1% of the time. The moneyline and total don't offer much value, but we do ever so slightly side with the under, projecting it to win out 53.1% of the time.

Assuming a negative game script for Tannehill, which looks likely, his passing yards prop of 261.5 yards feels like a good one to target. Admittedly, we predict Tannehill for just 250.0 yards, but I'm more bullish on him and like the over. LA has actually allowed the fifth-most passing yards this year.

Historical Betting Trends

-- The Rams have hit the over in 7 of the last 10 games.
-- The over has also hit five times in the last six games between these two teams.
-- Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Rams.