FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Thursday Night (Ravens at Dolphins)

On NFL odds, the Baltimore Ravens are 7.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins in a game with a 46.5-point total. That makes the implied score 27.00-19.50 in favor of the Ravens.

What does that mean for the single-game slate tonight?

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

The top MVP play is Lamar Jackson ($17,500 on FanDuel). Shocker.

Miami is allowing the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (20.5), and Jackson's dual-threat ability gives him an insane floor/ceiling combination. He has at least 51 rushing yards in four straight games, including outbursts of 88 and 120 rushing yards in his past two. We project him for a slate-best 26.2 FanDuel points, which is 8.8 more than anyone else. He'll be the chalk MVP pick, but you can get unique in the flex spots and leave salary on the table to differentiate.

Using anyone other than Jackson at MVP will be contrarian, and I don't hate the idea of plugging in Marquise Brown ($13,500) as a multiplier and hoping to hit on a few big plays.

Brown has posted at least 16.1 FanDuel points in six of eight games this season. He's got a 25% target share and 35% air yards share for the campaign, and those numbers are even better -- 28% target share and 42% air yards share -- with Rashod Bateman ($8,500) active in Baltimore's past three games. The Dolphins have surrendered the third-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (34.9).

On the Miami side, it's hard to talk yourself into playing anyone at MVP, but whenever a signal-caller isn't going to be a very popular MVP selection, we need to at least think about using him. That'll likely be the case with Tua Tagovailoa ($15,000), who is expected to be a game-time decision.

Tua sat out last week but was listed as a limited participant in practice early this week. That would seem to bode well for his chances of playing on Thursday. The Ravens' defense has permitted 19.5 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, the 13th-most, and Tagovailoa will likely see a negative game script. There's a path to a good showing for Tua, who we forecast to score 17.4 FanDuel points.

If it's Jacoby Brissett ($14,000), the whole Miami offense gets a slight downgrade, and I wouldn't have much interest in using Brissett at MVP.

The two passers are the only guys we project for more than 12.9 FanDuel points.

Flex Breakdown

Both tight ends are excellent plays, although the salaries for Mark Andrews ($13,000) and Mike Gesicki ($12,500) aren't easy to stomach.

Gesicki is having a nice season for Miami, and he's accounted for a 17% target share and 23% air yards share over the last four weeks. With an average depth of target of 10.1 yards, Gesicki has some big-play juice, and he's averaged 67.9 receiving yards per game this year in losses, compared to just 27.0 in wins. We have him slated for 9.5 FanDuel points.

Andrews has held onto his role as the number-two option in the passing game even with Bateman becoming a factor. In the three games in which Bateman has suited up, Andrews owns a 21% target share and 24% air yards share. While he's topped double-digit FanDuel points only three times this year, Andrews projects for 12.1 FanDuel points, per our model.

With DeVante Parker in and out of the lineup of late (and now on injured reserve), Jaylen Waddle ($12,000) has become Miami's de-facto number-one wideout.

Sans Parker over the last two weeks, Waddle paces Miami in target share (27%) and air yards share (31%) -- both by a wide margin. He's starting to get a few more downfield looks, although his 8.5-yard average depth of target still leaves us wanting. Our algorithm has Waddle generating 11.1 FanDuel points, and at a salary that is $500 less than Gesecki's, Waddle figures to be the most popular Miami pass-catcher.

Neither running game is all that appealing. Baltimore's backfield has been a mess from a fantasy perspective for the entire season, and the Dolphins' run game just hasn't been very good. But you can make a case for Myles Gaskin ($11,000) based on volume and matchup.

Baltimore has given up the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (23.8), and the volume should be pretty good for Gaskin, who has averaged 20.0 total touches per game over the last three, including 20 carries and 6 catches last time out. The problem is that Gaskins turned those 26 touches into a mere 57 total yards -- against the Houston Texans no less. But on an offense short of enticing plays, Gaskin has to be on our radar.

In the value range, the aforementioned Bateman ($8,500) is worth a look, and you can say the same for Sammy Watkins ($7,500) if he gives it a go.

These two have yet to play in the same game this season, so they may cannibalize each other's value when that happens, but they've each had a solid role when they've had the number-two receiver job to themselves. Our model prefers Bateman, projecting him for 8.0 FanDuel points, compared to Watkins' projection of 4.2. Bateman's outlook would get a lift if Watkins remained sidelined.

Lastly, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker ($9,000) is a good play.

He is averaging 9.9 FanDuel points per game for the season and has put up double-digit FanDuel points in five of eight games. He hasn't missed a field goal since Week 3 and is perfect on extra points this year. According to Brandon Gdula's single-game study, kickers are best suited for lower-scoring games, and this one has a 46.5-point total. At a projection of 10.1 FanDuel points, Tucker is the slate's best play among those with a four-digit salary, according to our numbers.