FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10

Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.

As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.

Now, let's run through some of the top plays in Week 10.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,700 on FanDuel): This is the third straight week where we find Allen and the Bills as multi-score favorites, this time by 12.0 points over the Jets. Typically, that high a spread means we're really only worried about a blowout lowering Allen's ceiling.

However, things didn't go according to script in Week 9 against the Jaguars, where the Bills not only didn't cover, but they straight-up lost and were held to just two field goals. Allen logged 47 pass attempts but ultimately turned the ball over 3 times and finished with a season-low 11.56 FanDuel points.

Perhaps we should just chalk that up as a fluke, but it's worth remembering that Allen and the Bills weren't exactly firing on all cylinders for much of Week 8 against Miami, either. They were held without a touchdown until late in the third quarter before rattling off three to salvage the day and pull out the victory.

Have opposing defenses figured out how to stop Buffalo, or will we look back on this as just a weird blip in their season?

Well, luckily for Allen, the Jets could be the remedy he needs to get back on track. According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, New York ranks 31st in total defense and 30th against the pass.

And if the Bills' offense looks more like its prior self, it also helps that backup Jets quarterback Mike White -- who's been announced as this week's starter -- has given his offense a short-term jolt, which could help keep things more competitive.

Despite the recent stumbles, Allen tops numberFire's quarterback projections, exceeding every other signal-caller by three or more FanDuel points. Tom Brady ($8,300) and Allen are the only quarterbacks on the slate averaging 25-plus FanDuel points per game, too.

Dak Prescott ($8,100): Prescott is another star quarterback coming off a shaky outing, with the Cowboys struggling to get anything going in an upset loss at home to the Broncos of all teams. In Prescott's case, he was able to salvage his final line in garbage time but was otherwise held in check for nearly the entire game.

Perhaps he was rusty after last playing on October 17th, as he's otherwise been one of the league's best passers this season. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, Prescott is tied with Brady for this year's third-best mark in numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back and ranks second in Passing Success Rate (55.26%).

Similar to Allen, Week 10 provides a get-right spot for Prescott. Dallas' matchup versus Atlanta has a slate-high 54.5 game total, and it also rates at the top overall game in terms of pace, per our Brandon Gdula. The Falcons rank 27th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, as well.

This should be one of the week's best fantasy environments, and Prescott projects as the second-best signal-caller on the board.

Justin Herbert ($8,000): Unlike our previous two entries, Herbert is coming off a spike week, exceeding 30 FanDuel points for the third time this season. That said, it was a much-needed confidence booster after he flopped in his prior two outings.

He could be in the right spot to keep things rolling against Minnesota. This matchup rates second-best in pace, per Gdula, and also has the slate's second-highest over/under (53.5) with a tight spread. Additionally, while the Vikings rank highly as a pass defense, they've lost some key pieces on defense, and safety Harrison Smith (COVID-19) will be out again.

Herbert and Brady round out the top four in numberFire's projections as the only other quarterbacks projected for over 20 FanDuel points this week alongside Allen and Prescott.

Running Backs

Najee Harris ($9,400): It's a little weird to see Harris tied for the highest salary at running back, but his massive workload has led to seven straight games with 15-plus points, which is a floor that's hard to come by. Harris' 31.8 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game trails only Derrick Henry this season.

However, on a mediocre Pittsburgh offense, Harris also hasn't demonstrated a slate-breaking ceiling, maxing out at around 21 points three times. This is a good spot to break through with a big score, though, as the Steelers are 8.5-point favorites against a lackluster Lions team. Harris tops numberFire's running back projections this week and even rates as a strong value despite the salary.

While Jonathan Taylor ($9,400) doesn't see nearly the same volume as Harris (22.0 adjusted opportunities per game), he's always a threat to break away for chunk plays, helping him to three games with 28-plus FanDuel points. He's a great play in tournaments as a 10.5-point favorite over Jacksonville.

Dalvin Cook ($8,500): While Cook hasn't seen quite as lofty a workload the past two weeks, he's still averaging a robust 28.0 adjusted opportunities over his five full games, and he should be leaned on in a fantastic matchup against the Chargers. It's no secret that Los Angeles struggles against the run, and they rank 32nd in adjusted rush defense, per our metrics.

Coupled with the fact that this could be one of the best overall game environments on the slate, Cook should be set up for a ceiling game this weekend.

James Conner ($7,000): With Chase Edmonds going down early in Week 9, Conner would go on to log the second-most adjusted opportunities of the week (31). With Edmonds looking at a multi-week injury, that immediately vaults Conner up as a value against Carolina.

Conner should once again see increased volume, though perhaps not quite as much as last week, as Eno Benjamin could also see more touches in an Edmonds-esque role. But after Conner racked up 173 total yards and 3 touchdowns as a bell-cow last week, it's hard to see the Cardinals significantly reducing his role, and that's even more the case if Kyler Murray is forced to sit again.

The matchup also checks out for the Arizona run game. The Panthers rank 26th in adjusted rush defense compared to 4th versus the pass, per numberFire's metrics.

D'Ernest Johnson ($5,400): Johnson's viability will fall entirely on whether or not Nick Chubb (COVID-19) is cleared in time to play on Sunday. If Chubb is ruled out, Johnson arguably gets "free square" status, as he logged 26 adjusted opportunities in Week 7 with Chubb out -- and that was with Demetric Felton playing, who could also miss this game due to COVID.

There's nothing special about this matchup against a New England team on the rise, but there's little reason to pass up a potential workhorse workload at such a low salary.

Keep an eye on whether Alvin Kamara plays this weekend, too, as Mark Ingram ($5,500) would emerge as a value in his place.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown ($7,600): Working under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers is back this week, Davante Adams ($8,700) predictably leads numberFire's wideout projections, though he also carries the highest salary by a wide margin.

So, you could also consider dropping down to the mid-$7,000 range, where we find quite a few enticing options. One of them is Brown, who has an eye-popping 30.7% target share and 46.4% air yards share in his seven healthy games. With Derrick Henry out and Julio Jones limited in practice due to a hamstring issue, we should expect Brown to continue seeing a voluminous role this week against New Orleans.

Mike Evans ($7,400): With Antonio Brown expected to remain out and now Chris Godwin missing practice this week, Evans could be set up for a huge target share as the last man standing. That tends to work out well when you're tied to Tom Brady, and Tampa Bay has the slate's second-highest implied total (30.50) versus Washington. The Football Team's defense has largely been a disappointment this year, and they rank just 29th in adjusted pass defense.

Diontae Johnson ($7,400): Johnson is another guy who could see a bigger role this week, as Chase Claypool is considered week-to-week with a toe injury. As is, Johnson has seen a 32.0% target share and 43.6% air yards share in the three games since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down, so his volume is elite to begin with.

The matchup doesn't get much better than this, too. The Lions rank 32nd in adjusted pass defense this season.

Michael Gallup ($5,500): In the sub-$6,000 range, Jakobi Meyers ($5,500) pops as a value in our projections due to his team-high 24.1% target share on the Patriots. But it's fair to question his upside in this offense, as he's hit 70 or more yards just twice this season. And while it's clearly due in part to poor luck, it's still telling that he hasn't scored a touchdown yet.

Therefore, if you want to swing for the fences, you could instead turn to Gallup, who is expected to finally return for the Cowboys this week. He'll have to fight for targets with CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Amari Cooper ($7,300), and Dalton Schultz ($6,000), but this is an offense that spreads the ball around, so Gallup could very well get in on the fun in what should be one of the slate's top games.

In Gallup's lone game way back in Week 1, he finished third on the team in targets despite exiting early with his ankle injury.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts ($6,900): Arguably every other upper-tier tight end is off this slate, leaving Pitts all alone atop numberFire's tight end projections. In three games with Calvin Ridley out, Pitts has led the team in both target share (22.5%) and air yards share (34.1%), but he's been held to single-digit FanDuel points in each of his last two outings. Despite the volume, the added defensive attention without Ridley has made it more difficult for Pitts to capitalize.

That being said, we've seen what Pitts vault over 100 yards twice this season, and this could be the right spot to get back on track. While Dallas has generally performed well as a defensive unit this season, they've been below-average versus tight ends, and as previously noted, this is a game we want to target.

Pat Freiermuth ($5,100): Although Eric Ebron should be back this week, it's hard to see the Steelers reducing Freiermuth's usage given his recent play -- and even more so with Chase Claypool out. In three games without Smith-Schuster, Freiemuth has enjoyed the second-highest target share (21.3%), and he's now scored three times over his last two outings. He projects as one of the better tight end values on the board.

Defenses

Arizona D/ST ($4,800): It's often difficult to pay up for a defense, but Arizona pops in numberFire's projections against Carolina. The newly-signed Cam Newton won't start until next week, leaving the honors to P.J. Walker in Week 10.

While Walker probably can't perform any worse than Sam Darnold did, he didn't exactly light it up in limited time last season, tossing 5 interceptions on just 56 pass attempts. It's also probably telling how quickly the Panthers moved to sign Newton following Darnold's injury diagnosis.

As for the Cardinals, they rank second in adjusted total defense and are top five in sacks this season.

Tennessee D/ST ($4,100): The Titans' defense is coming off an impressive showing against the vaunted Rams, and it might surprise you that they've actually scored double-digit FanDuel points in four of the last five games. They haven't exactly been consistent in real life, so it's hard to say what their true level is, but they're up to fourth overall in numberFire's defense rankings.

This week's spot against New Orleans is a good one to test the waters, particularly if Kamara is ultimately ruled out. Whether it's Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill who draws the start, this isn't an offense that should scare us.