15 Fantasy Football Transactions for Week 11
It's Week 11. At this point in the season, we generally know who's playing well and who isn't. We know which players we'd love to have on our fantasy team, and which players we'd rather pass on.
It may seem that way -- you definitely have a lot more confidence in which players to target and avoid this time of year versus Week 2 or 3 -- but there's still a lot to uncover out there in the fantasy football world.
Don't believe me? Maybe this week's list of transactions will change your mind.
Add and Sell Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson had himself a day on Sunday. He carried the ball 20 times and saw 5 targets, turning that workload into 114 total yards and a pair of scores. It was the best fantasy performance from a New England Patriots running back all season long, and it came in a game where Stevenson finally got his shot to be the team's bell-cow back.
He really was a workhorse for them in Week 10. Stevenson saw 69% of the team's running back rushes (that's pretty nice) to go along with a 20% target share. That was the third-highest running back rush share from a New England back this season, and it was the second-highest target share.
And get this: Stevenson became just the fourth New England running back since 2011 to hit both of those backfield share marks in a single game. The Patriots have traditionally used their running backs in specific roles. They usually don't give true bell-cow workloads to running backs. But they did with Stevenson on Sunday.
That, to me, is a big reason he's a sell. I'm a fan of his game -- one of the things I had talked about a lot during the draft process was how his prospect profile was impressive given he's a bigger-bodied back who had underrated receiving numbers -- but the situation isn't ideal. Damien Harris was out with a concussion on Sunday, and if he's able to return, we can't just assume Stevenson continues this type of workload. Not only has Harris been fine this season with an above-average Success Rate (which measures the percentage of positive expected points runs made by a back), but we have a decade worth of sample size showing that Stevenson's Week 10 usage isn't all that normal for a team coached by Bill Belichick and company.
Clearly, don't trade Stevenson away just to do it. There's a gray area with every transaction -- we're playing probability here. Is there a chance that Stevenson breaks the Patriots mold and becomes their first true bell-cow back in over a decade? Sure. There's a chance. Should we be buying into that? I don't think so. Odds are, Damien Harris will have some role when he returns, and we'll see Stevenson take on sort of the old Rex Burkhead role in this offense.
Stevenson will be valuable and should be rostered, but if there's someone in your league who thinks this will be the norm, I'd see what you can get for him.
Hold Dalton Schultz
Michael Gallup returned to the Dallas offense in Week 10, and things were a tad different for Cowboys pass-catchers. Amari Cooper, for instance, saw just 12.1% of the team's targets, a season low. CeeDee Lamb had a big day, but his target share dipped a little bit as well, hitting 21.2% when his season-long average is closer to 23%.
Dalton Schultz appeared to be the biggest loser, watching his target share drop to just 6.1%. He had averaged a target share per game of 21.9% since Week 2, so this seems pretty alarming, especially when you can pinpoint an event -- in this case, Gallup's return -- as a reason for the drop in work.
Here's the good news: Schultz still ran the second-most routes for Dallas on Sunday, per Pro Football Focus.
The Dallas offense is filled with play-makers, so this is going to happen, unfortunately. We'll see a rotation of big performances, or, when one player doesn't capture a large portion of the production like Lamb did in Week 10, we'll see a lot of just pretty good outings.
It's tough to sell full-time players in high-powered offenses. It's even tougher to sell full-time players in high-powered offenses at a position that lacks any sort of depth in fantasy football.
Schultz will take a volume hit with Gallup being back and healthy. You could argue everyone in that offense will. You just have to remember that the offense can generate a lot of points, and that can help the target decline a bit.
Add D'Onta Foreman
In Week 9, we saw Adrian Peterson lead the way with a 45.5% running back rush share, equating to 10 rushes. Jeremy McNichols was second with seven rush attempts, while D'Onta Foreman had five. McNichols, who's been used as a pass-catcher throughout the 2021 season, had the only relevant target share in the backfield.
Fast forward to this past weekend, and things changed. Foreman was the one who led in running back rush share at 47.8%, and he turned that into 11 carries for 30 yards on the ground against a good Saints rush defense. He also was able to catch both of his targets for a backfield high 48 receiving yards. McNichols, once again, led the backfield in target share, for the record.
Chances are, Foreman's not going to be a reliable fantasy football piece moving forward. He was on the field for just 35% of Tennessee's snaps, after all. But he's currently available almost everywhere, and who knows? Maybe his decent performance against the Saints will force the Titans to throw him on the field more.
Buy the Seattle Seahawks Passing Attack
It was a tough return for Russell Wilson, who, on Sunday, posted his lowest fantasy total since 2016.
Let's just get to it: we know Wilson is good. We know D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett -- wideouts who each saw 21% target shares in Week 10 -- are good. Beyond that, though, the Seahawks also have a really appealing schedule over their next four games, facing three top-eight teams in adjusted points allowed to the quarterback position. Even if the opponents are better against wide receivers, we know where Wilson's going to funnel his targets.
They get a tougher matchup in Week 11 against Arizona before this cakewalk stretch, but I wouldn't want to wait. If you can buy at a lower cost this week, do it.
Add Dan Arnold
This is the third time I've written about adding Dan Arnold in fantasy football. So, sorry if you've heard this before, but you need to freaking add Dan Arnold to your fantasy football team.
Don't sit there like you can't use the tight end help. Like 80% of fantasy rosters can use some tight end help.
But here's the deal: Arnold has now scored double-digit PPR points in four of his last five games. He's averaged a target share per game of 20.4% since D.J. Chark's season-ending injury -- a target share that's tough to find at the tight end position. Since that time -- over the last five weeks -- he's leading the Jaguars in targets. He has more looks than Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Jamal Agnew.
Please add him.
Buy Brandin Cooks
Some transactions work better for teams under specific circumstances. In the case of buying Brandin Cooks, if you're a team that's looking far ahead to the semifinals, it may not be for you.
If you're a team that needs to stack wins immediately, then listen up.
You would hope that Taylor is an upgrade over Davis Mills. That means that as long as Cooks is maintaining a high target share, his fantasy production has a chance to spike.
In three games with Taylor this season, Cooks has averaged a target share per game of 35.1%. That number is about 28% with Mills. It's a small sample size, but it at least shows that Cooks has elite target share upside.
If you look at Houston's schedule, it could definitely be worse. Four of their next five games are against teams that rank in the top half of the league in adjusted points allowed per game to wide receivers, and three of those contests are against teams that rank in the top-10. The nice schedule combined with the top-notch target share should mean fantasy points for Brandin Cooks.
Add Wayne Gallman
It's a tough week on the waiver wire. Really tough. But Wayne Gallman might not be a terrible short-term add.
Gallman led the Falcons in rush attempts by a wide margin against the Cowboys. Some of that was definitely due to the game being a blowout, but Gallman was seeing work in the first quarter while Mike Davis didn't get his typical workload.
Gallman could've also seen more work because Cordarrelle Patterson suffered an ankle injury in the game, too. His status for Week 11 is in question, and things are really iffy because the Falcons play on Thursday night.
If Patterson sits, Gallman could see a decent workload. And with how things were divided up in Week 10, he may even lead the backfield in touches for a second straight week.
Hold James Conner
It was a rough Week 10 for the Arizona Cardinals, but James Conner was still able to put together a 15-point performance in PPR formats, ranking as an RB2. He found the end zone once again, giving him 11 rushing touchdowns over his last eight games.
Some of you may be thinking about selling high, and while I can understand the touchdown regression logic to some degree, keep in mind that his peripherals were pretty on par with what we saw in Week 9 when he went absolutely bananas against the 49ers. In Week 9, Conner saw 67.7% of the team's running back rushes. That was 62.5% this past week. He had an unsustainable 19.2% target share in Week 9, and that fell to 13.8%, which is still quite high.
Add Bryan Edwards
Week 9 was tough for Edwards against the Giants, where he failed to catch any of his four targets. He had only an 8.7% target share in that game. In Week 10 -- in a better one on one matchup -- that share jumped to closer to 12%. As my colleague Brandon Gdula noted in this week's waiver wire piece here on numberFire, when you give proper weight to the four targets that Edwards had on Sunday night, they really come out to be closer to 6.5 targets. That's because of his incredibly high 23.1 average depth of target and the frequency in which they traveled 16 or more air yards.
Without Henry Ruggs, the Raiders really need a reliable down-the-field threat. Edwards, so far without Ruggs, has almost 31% of the team's air yards. That leads the Raiders.
Am I confident Edwards will become an every-week starter? Definitely not. Is he worth an add off the waiver wire? In leagues with 12 teams or more, I'd consider it.
Sell Antonio Gibson
Week 10 was the first time Antonio Gibson gave us an RB1 performance in PPR formats all season long. Naturally, it came against the Buccaneers, a team that not only stops the run well, but one that's a tough opponent in general. We all figured Washington would find themselves in a negative game script hurting Gibson, but the opposite happened.
Don't you love fantasy football?
Gibson saw a career-high 24 rush attempts in the Football Team's win, but his backfield share numbers really weren't all that different than what we've seen all season long. He had an 80% running back rush share, a number he'd gotten to twice this season. He had plenty of other games in the upper 70% range as well. And his target share was just 6.3%, a number we've seen far too often since his Week 1 share of 23.8%. Gibson still hasn't seen a target share north of 10% since then.
Even in a good game script, Gibson ran fewer routes than J.D. McKissic. What happens when Washington, a three-win team, trails in games? What happens when they see a negative game script?
I'll tell you: they'll run the ball less. Washington had a 48.5% pass rate on Sunday when their season-long average per game entering the week was closer to 57%.
We just can't and shouldn't assume this team will be leading consistently from here on out. That's even truer when you look at their schedule: they still have multiple games against the Cowboys during the fantasy football season, and they'll face the Seahawks and Raiders over the next few weeks, too.
That's a problem -- and has been a problem -- for Gibson. With McKissic still being utilized as the pass-catching back in the backfield, there's always a risk that Gibson gets game scripted out of contests.
He can still be an RB2 given the state of the position, but if there's someone willing to pay top dollar after a really good performance, I'd sell.
Add Adam Trautman
Over Adam Trautman's last three games, he's seen target shares of 17.1%, 16.7%, and 18.2%. He had been seeing shares under the 10% mark, so there's been a dramatic uptick in work.
Why? Well, the Saints are definitely utilizing him more as a receiver. He's run a route on a little over 69% of the team's drop backs over the last three weeks, when that number was about 62% from Weeks 1 through 7. He also could simply be developing.
His target share is something that shouldn't be ignored at a position that lacks consistency. So feel free to add him now in case this becomes a trend worth utilizing in your lineup.
Buy Corey Davis
As up and down as the Jets offense has been this year, Corey Davis hasn't been all that bad. He's scored 14.7 or more fantasy points in all but three games, and he's seen 5 or more targets in every contest this season. He was sidelined for a bit, but his target share per game is about 20%. There's nothing wrong with that.
If you want to take a chance and give up some bench assets to acquire Davis, I won't fault you. The Jets, on paper, only have one tough matchup for wide receivers from now through the end of the fantasy season according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed method.
You can probably get Davis for next to nothing when you explain to the Davis manager that Zach Wilson's coming back soon, too.
Add Cam Newton
It took Cam Newton one play to remind us that he's a beast at the goal line. It took him two plays to let us know he may have honest fantasy value from now through the end of the season.
I don't know how this Newton experiment is going to end. What I do know is that Newton is a mobile quarterback who's capable of scoring points via the ground game -- something we should always be looking for in fantasy football.
As bad as he was in 2020, Newton still had 8 top-12 performances at the quarterback position. He still averaged over 17 points per game, and that's with four single-digit point performances.
He has weekly upside. As we know, he did what he did last year because he found the end zone 12 times on the ground. With a better supporting cast in Carolina, maybe he's able to resurrect his arm talent a bit.
Regardless, he's a strong streamer this week against a Washington defense that, yes, looked good against Tom Brady in Week 10, but it's still a D that's struggled against the pass all season long. And they'll be without Chase Young.
Add Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa should be able to start this weekend, and he gets a plus matchup against the Jets. New York has been the ninth-most advantageous matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this year in adjusted points allowed, and Tua has been really underrated as a fantasy quarterback over the last month. He didn't even start this past week but still finished as a fringe QB1, and in his two plus matchups this season -- games against Jacksonville and Atlanta -- he averaged about 24 fantasy points per game. He's a safe bet to score points off the waiver wire this week.
Add the Miami Dolphins Defense
Speaking of Miami's matchup against New York, you can and should try to use the Dolphins' defense this week.
They've played lights out over their last two outings, intercepting Tyrod Taylor and Lamar Jackson four times while recovering a pair of fumbles. They've also collected nine sacks during this time. Now they get a team that's been one of the best for opposing defenses when looking at adjusted points allowed to the position. Rostered in just 25% of Yahoo! leagues, Miami's a great, great add this week.