NFL

5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 11

Michael Gallup is on the field often enough to be a great source of salary relief in this weekend's highest-totaled contest. Who else can help us spend down on FanDuel in Week 11?

Studs with sizable salaries are frequently an integral part of winning money in daily fantasy football at FanDuel. However, to fit them under the salary cap, it's imperative to locate underpriced players who over-deliver.

A good place to start when attempting to unearth undervalued players is our projections tool. The tool offers a value option for sorting, showcasing who offers the most bang for your buck. In addition to matchups impacting projections, injuries do as well. On that note, players replacing injured starters are often among the top values. So, staying abreast of injury news and inactives until the start of games is a must with that in mind.

With the tone set for this piece, let's move on. The following quintet of players is among my favorite cap-friendly options in Week 11.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,400)

Joe Burrow is having a sensational sophomore season for the Cincinnati Bengals. According to Pro Football Reference, he is ninth in passing yards per game (277.4) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (20). It gets better. He's amassed his excellent totals, despite the Bengals easing him back into things after his rookie season was cut short via injury.

According to Sharp Football Stats, in games since Week 4, when the scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, Cincinnati is passing at the second-highest rate (67 percent). Their newfound pass-happy approach will play well against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are the sixth-worst pass defense in our power rankings.

Listen, I love Patrick Mahomes this week in a projected shootout after last week's bounce-back showing. However, it feels like it's lost in celebrating Mahomes' return to form that the Raiders were picked apart. So, I expect Burrow to have his way with them coming out of Cincinnati's Week 10 bye. Thus, I love him as a GPP value pivot from the other studs at the position.

A.J. Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers ($7,000)

It's time to unleash A.J. Dillon.

Aaron Jones is hurt, leaving the second-year back to operate as a workhorse for the Green Bay Packers in a mouthwatering matchup. Even as Green Bay's second back, Dillon has showcased his ability, besting 75 yards from scrimmage in three straight games and five of his last seven contests.

The hard-charging sophomore back is a load as a ball-carrier, and that's demonstrated in some of his underlying numbers. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 50 rush attempts in 2021, Dillon is tied for 23rd in forced missed tackles (17) and eighth in yards after contact per rush attempt (3.31). In addition to his rushing exploits, he demonstrates passing-game utility, besting 40 receiving yards in back-to-back games and three times this year.

Finally, our heat map lists the Packers as 2.5-point favorites and an implied total of 26.0 points. The spread should allow Dillon to rumble against the Minnesota Vikings. They are the fifth-worst rush defense in our power rankings. Add it all up, and our projections tab Dillon with the seventh-highest value score -- a measure of points per one-thousand dollars of salary -- amongst running backs. So, I'm all over Dillon in all game types, even though I expect him to be chalky.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans ($6,600)

No one is going to confuse the Houston Texans for an offensive juggernaut. Further, their implied total of 17.25 points is the second-lowest on the main slate and downright gross. Nevertheless, I'm enamored with Brandin Cooks in Week 11.

Cooks offers a perfect blend of elite usage with a dreamy matchup. Tyrod Taylor has attempted 87 passes this year and directed 23 to Cooks -- good for a target share of 26.4%. Moreover, his gaudy target share has led to Cooks topping the Texans in receptions (15), receiving yards (227), and air yards (262) on Taylor's passes.

He has a sky-high ceiling with his alpha receiver role against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are getting drilled for the most FanDuel points per game and 13.12 yards per reception by wide receivers in 2021. According to Pro Football Reference, Tennessee has allowed the second-most touchdowns (14) and most receptions (162) and receiving yards (2,127) to receivers this year. As a result, Cooks pops with the 10th-highest value score among wide receivers this week in our projections.

Therefore, I love Cooks in all game types.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,800)

Unfortunately, Emmanuel Sanders has produced two duds in the last three weeks.

Fortunately, the Buffalo Bills are a fast-paced, pass-happy team that has supported his fantasy value more often than not this year. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are playing at the fifth-fastest situation neutral pace. In addition, Buffalo is passing at the highest rate (68 percent) when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points.

Buffalo's offensive tendencies are ideal for pass-catchers like Sanders. However, Sanders has done a fantastic job of garnering attention and producing, too. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is 15th in intended air yards (905). The veteran wideout has parlayed his conditions and usage into a rock-solid 3.3 receptions and 56.1 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns.

This week, he has a favorable matchup for building on his numbers. The Indianapolis Colts are the second-worst pass defense in our power rankings. Additionally, they're coughing up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to receivers this year. We project Sanders for 9.4 FanDuel points this week. However, I'm more bullish on his outlook, expecting him to reach double-digit FanDuel points against the visiting Colts.

Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($5,400)

The highest total on this week's main slate is 56.0 points in the contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City. The game's spread is only 2.5-points, and even as underdogs, Dallas' implied total is a tantalizing 26.75 points. Thus, this is a game I want exposure to.

Sure, there is a chance the game fails to live up to expectations. Some of the pieces of that game will fail to deliver the goods. Nevertheless, I'm intrigued by Michael Gallup as an ancillary piece in a plus matchup. In two games Gallup has played this year, he is fifth in routes (58), per Pro Football Focus. He's also gotten attention from Dak Prescott by ranking third in targets (12) in those games. Gallup's role is sufficient enough to fuel a fantasy-friendly showing in any week.

However, his outlook is enhanced by the potential for a fast-paced shootout. I already discussed the small spread above, but the pace looks great on paper as well. Dallas is playing at the second-fastest situation neutral pace and Kansas City is ninth-fastest. Gallup has hauled in four receptions for 36 yards and three receptions for 42 yards in his two games this year. So, the floor is mediocre. Still, he's showcased his upside in previous years and is running routes at an acceptable rate, making him a nifty GPP option that could be under-rostered relative to the stars in this contest.



Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.