FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 12 Thursday Night (Bills at Saints)
The three-day Thanksgiving Day slate is capped by what should be a tight game between two strong teams.
For those unfamiliar, single-game daily fantasy slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
Also, Captain Morgan and FanDuel have teamed up to offer you an additional way to win with the Captain Morgan Thursday Night Pick Em. Simply answer 10 questions about the game for your chance to win a share of $10,000.
Two Spice Up Your Gameday questions are on the list, and this week, they ask some defensive-minded questions: "Will either team record a safety?" and "Will either team return a interception for a touchdown?"
numberFire projects the Bills for 0.04 safeties and the Saints for 0.05, so the safe bet will -- of course -- be a "no" on whether a team will record a safety. Buffalo is actually projected for 0.12 interception returns for a touchdown, and the Saints are at 0.07. If you're looking to Spice Up your picks, then a "yes" to a pick-six has merit.
There is a clear top MVP play, and it's Josh Allen ($17,500 on FanDuel). If Alvin Kamara ($15,000) winds up playing, he'll be another high-upside MVP option, but Kamara doesn't seem likely to suit up after not practicing on Tuesday, which leaves Allen as the standout selection for the multiplier spot.
The Saints are a pass-funnel defense, which should push more passing volume Allen's way, and they've surrendered the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (19.6). Jalen Hurts just ran wild on New Orleans a week ago (13 rushes, 69 yards, and 3 scores), and Allen is plenty capable as a runner, notching five games with at least 40 rushing yards. That boosts Allen's floor and ceiling.
In all, we project Allen for 23.5 FanDuel points, and he'll likely be the chalk MVP play regardless of Kamara's status.
If Buffalo has to lean on the pass, Stefon Diggs ($13,000) can hit as an MVP pick -- even in a tough draw with Marshon Lattimore -- and is a fun pivot off the Allen chalk. Diggs has put up double-digit FanDuel points in six straight games, scoring twice last week in what was an otherwise disappointing outing (4 catches for 23 yards). He paces Buffalo in target share (24%) and air yards share (32%) for the campaign. We peg him for 14.2 FanDuel points.
If Kamara gives it a go, he has to be on our radar. Last week's massacre at the hands of Jonathan Taylor notwithstanding, Buffalo's run D has been great this season, but Kamara's all-around ability keeps him fairly matchup-proof.
If we get another week of Mark Ingram ($12,000) as the lead back, the volume necessitates that we consider him at MVP. Over the last two weeks, Ingram has amassed a combined 30 carries and 15 targets while playing 85% and 72% of the snaps. That's excellent usage, and he projects as the best way to get exposure to the Saints' offense if Kamara sits.
Despite posting a good fantasy output of 26.16 FanDuel points last week, Trevor Siemian ($14,000) had a rough game, and with the Saints losing three straight, it wouldn't be surprising to see Taysom Hill ($7,000) get more snaps at quarterback or outright start the game. Hill would be a free square if he starts, and you can consider him at MVP due to what he provides on the ground.
If it's Siemian starting, I don't have much interest in rostering him in any capacity, but with that said, he's a quarterback on a single-game slate in a game that doesn't have many high-upside plays, so we can't just write him off. We project him for 12.2 FanDuel points, and hopefully, we'll have clarity on who Sean Payton is starting prior to kickoff.
The rest of the Saints are all uninspiring picks. Tre'Quan Smith ($10,000) is the guy I can most stomach. He's running as the Saints' top wideout of late. In the three games Siemian has started, Smith has led New Orleans receivers in snap rate in every outing while recording a team-best 17% target share.
On the Bills side, someone I really like on this slate is Emmanuel Sanders ($11,000). While Sanders hasn't maintained what he was doing early in the season, he's got a 29% air yards share for the year, and the big-play juice is handy in the single-game format. He's out-snapped Cole Beasley ($10,500) in every single game this season and led all Bills wideouts with a 79% snap share a week ago.
Dawson Knox ($7,500) is a great source of value. He's played 84% and 98% of the snaps in his two games since returning from injury and has accounted for a 19% target share in that time, including 10 looks in Week 11. The target share ranks second on the team in that split. Knox should be a popular salary-saver.
With a 26% air yards share over the last two games, Gabriel Davis ($7,000) is a decent roll of the dice, and he's a pivot away from the chalky Knox.
In a difficult matchup for Buffalo's run game, I don't have much interest in any of the Bills running backs now that it's a three-man blah-fest.
Both kickers are worth a look in a dome game that could be a low-scoring affair. I prefer Tyler Bass ($8,500) of the two. He had a nightmare game last week in rough weather conditions, going 0-for-2 on field goals, but prior to Week 11, Bass hadn't missed a field goal or extra point since Week 2. We forecast him to score 8.9 FanDuel points.