FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 12 Monday Night (Seattle at Washington)
Monday's contest between two sub-.500 teams may not make for the most exciting real-life matchup, but isn't that why we have single-game slates to spice things up?
The Seattle Seahawks enter the day as mere 1.0-point road favorites over the Washington Football Team, per NFL odds, and the total sits at a decent 47.5 points, so there's some back-and-forth potential tonight.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Like most single-game slates, tonight's quarterbacks lead numberFire's projections by a wide margin. Russell Wilson ($15,500) is projected for around 19 FanDuel points, and Taylor Heinicke ($14,500) is just above 17 points. No other player is projected for even 13.
That said, Wilson hasn't exactly been lighting it up since returning from injury, being held to single-digit FanDuel points in back-to-back losses.
The good news is that this could be the right opponent to get on track. Washington's really struggled to defend the pass this season, ranking 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense per numberFire's metrics. As a result, they've given up the most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, per Pro Football Reference.
Washington's Heinicke has been a solid if unspectacular fantasy quarterback, and he actually leads the slate in FanDuel points per game (17.85). Heinicke boosts his fantasy outlook with occasional big games on the ground, averaging 4.5 carries and 27.6 rushing yards per game. Even though he's yet to play his Week 12 game, he ranks sixth at the position in rushing yards.
The Seahawks haven't been anything special versus the pass, either, ranking 18th in numberFire's metrics.
Both quarterbacks are natural MVP choices, though they ought to be chalky, as well.
Beyond that pair, we find Antonio Gibson ($12,000), D.K. Metcalf ($13,500), Tyler Lockett ($12,500), and Terry McLaurin ($14,000) as the four other players projected for double-digit points. They're all viable MVP pivots and might be the better way to go in tournaments.
Gibson's workload probably isn't as robust as many hoped to enter the season, particularly due to a fairly limited role in the passing game. Still, he's averaged a respectable 20.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game, and he's the main beneficiary of positive game scripts, averaging 23.5 adjusted opportunities in Washington's wins over the past two weeks.
With a tight spread, it wouldn't be surprising for Gibson to be a focal point in the Football Team's attack again tonight.
Flipping back to Seattle, Wilson's struggles hurt the outlooks of Metcalf and Lockett, but they remain the top pass-catching options in this offense. Since Wilson's return, Metcalf owns a 25.4% target share and 31.4% air yards share, and Lockett has marks of 20.6% and 40.6%. Washington ranks 29th in adjusted FanDuel points per target allowed to wide receivers, and they've allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to the position.
If Russ bounces back tonight, we know the types of performances Metcalf and Lockett are capable of.
Finally, McLaurin is the clear top pass-catcher for Washington, boasting a 28.0% target share and 45.7% air yards share this season. If the Seahawks force the Football Team into a pass-heavy game script, McLaurin will be the top candidate to reap the rewards.
Like always, all the previously mentioned players are top plays for your flex spots, too, but we're going to need some value to fit them in.
Averaging nearly 5 targets per game with a 14.8% target share, this is an ideal spot for McKissic to excel, as Seattle ranks 29th in adjusted FanDuel points per target allowed to running backs. His role increases in pass-heavy game scripts, making him an ideal pairing with Heinicke or as a bring-back option in Seattle-focused lineups.
Thomas has been out since early October, but he's expected to finally return on Monday. In three healthy games, he logged 100% of the snaps, which is an incredibly rare role for a tight end. While it remains to be seen if he jumps right back to that workload, he could be worth taking a chance on.
The return of Thomas and perhaps Curtis Samuel ($8,000) leaves the rest of Washington's pass-catchers as fringe options, but DeAndre Carter ($10,000) might be worth a look as well. He's seen a 16.9% target share over the past three games.
Washington's defense is 14th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, and Collins has mostly underwhelmed of late, so it's hard to get super jazzed here. But he should be the lead back on early downs, which puts him in the mix by default.
Dallas is the presumed pass-catching back, and he might be able to do some damage against a Washington defense that's 31st in adjusted FanDuel points allowed per target versus opposing backfields. Despite a lack of production this year, he's an intriguing option who could fly under the radar.
At his low salary, tight end Gerald Everett ($7,500) could very well be the best value on either team. Everett is third on the team in target share (19.0%) over the past two games while playing on 79.6% of the snaps.
And as a pure dart throw, Freddie Swain ($5,500) is in play as Seattle's third wideout, though keep in mind that he has zero receptions on just four total targets since Wilson's return.