Week 15 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2021 season. Each week, we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.

Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.

How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.

Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting-related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.

Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Is this one of the best games on the slate for a game stack?

With a 46.0-point over/under, the Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers could be one of the only viable games on the slate to stack. Only one game has a higher over/under than this one, but more importantly, neither the Falcons nor the 49ers are dealing with significant COVID issues. There are several teams around the league with up to 20 players out due to COVID protocols, but the Falcons and 49ers are, at least for now, in the clear.

Both teams also offer several affordable options, which makes stacking this game easier, and leaves you plenty of salary to pay up for the rest of your lineup.

We'll start with the home 49ers, who come in with a 27.75 implied team total and only have one real injury situation to note. Running back, Elijah Mitchell ($7,800) didn't practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to a concussion, which caused him to miss last week's game. If Mitchell is good to go for this week, he'll likely be the lead back and the top target in the 49ers' backfield.

When Mitchell was out last week, we saw Jeff Wilson ($5,800) play on 59.4% of the offensive snaps and total 13 carries for 56 yards, all of which led the team. He would be the next best option in the 49ers' backfield, but regardless of who it is, they are in a good spot against the Falcons' defense, who are allowing 22.6 FanDuel points per game to running backs, which is the ninth-worst in the league.

As is becoming the norm, we saw Deebo Samuel ($8,200) grab a few carries out of the backfield last week, giving him five carries or more in four straight weeks. On top of that, Samuel still has a 26.1% target market share, which is the highest on the team. He should be one of the priority targets when stacking the 49ers or this game overall. Considering the Falcons are allowing the fifth-most (31.7) FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, Samuel is in a good spot no matter where he is on the field.

George Kittle ($7,800) has gone damn near Super Saiyan over the past two weeks, with 27 targets, 22 receptions, 332 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Whewww buddy! Beyond elite levels of production, and with his 25.7% target share and 17.1% red zone target share, Kittle should be the number one option in this game.

This means that a 49ers' stack could be led by Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,700), adding in either Mitchell (if he plays) or Wilson. Then look to add Kittle or Samuel. You could also stick to just the passing game and go with Garoppolo, Samuel, and Kittle.

Of course, Brandon Aiyuk ($6,600) is also a viable option for this game stack but is just a step behind Samuel and Kittle in terms of target share, snap percentage, and routes run but is slightly ahead of both in red zone target share. He's certainly in a good matchup, but I'll look to Kittle or Samuel first.

The Falcons are in somewhat of a sneaky spot and have a few things going for them. First off, they are 9.5-point underdogs, which means they should be in a positive passing game script, giving us a few clear options to target for a stack.

Over the past seven weeks, since Calvin Ridley has been away from the team, Kyle Pitts ($5,800) is tied for the team lead with a 21.0% target share. However, this might not be the spot to target Pitts because the 49ers are allowing the fourth-fewest (6.6) FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends. It's a delicate risk/reward situation to navigate -- take the player with a high target share but in a tougher matchup, or look elsewhere.

Initially, I would look to Russell Gage ($6,000), who is the one tied with Pitts for a team-high 21.0% target share over the past seven weeks. Despite being known for their defense, the 49ers are actually in the bottom half of the league for the most FanDuel points allowed (29.7) per game to wide receivers. Gage has the same target share as Pitts but a much easier matchup.

In fact, not only are the 49ers in the bottom half of the league for the most FanDuel points allowed to wide receivers but also in the bottom half versus quarterbacks and running back. Tight end is the only position the 49ers are truly elite against, and they are surprisingly weak against the others.

Cordarrelle Patterson ($7,000) is always an option for a big game with his 32.8% rushing share and 14.5% target share over the past seven weeks. He has 16 total touches or more in three straight games and is realistically one of the top offensive options for the Falcons. Adding Patterson to a Garoppolo/Kittle/Samuel stack leaves you with an average of $6,000 per player remaining.

Matt Ryan ($6,500) hasn't shown any type of fantasy ceiling in his last five games and shouldn't be the first quarterback choice in this game.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

With a 1.0-point spread and a 42.5-point over/under, can we look to the Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers for a game stack?

While this over/under isn't super enticing, we are in the same situation as the Falcons-49ers game. Both teams are largely free from the injury report, and more importantly, free from major COVID issues.

The Titans are led by Ryan Tannehill ($7,000), who has been somewhat consistent as of late, but it's consistency that lacks a ceiling. Over the last five weeks, since Derrick Henry has been out, Tannehill has posted 13 FanDuel points or more four times, with three of those games being at 15 points or more but all less than 20 FanDuel points. That's really the range we are going to get from him each week: 13-19 FanDuel points. He's a good point-per-dollar option but by no means a great one.

D'Onta Foreman ($5,800) has led the team with a 40.0% rushing share over the past five weeks but a very low 3.9% target market share. The Steelers are struggling on defense this year, allowing 23.3 FanDuel points per game to running backs, which is the seventh-worst in the league.

Dontrell Hilliard ($5,200) would be the other running back to consider because he leads the backfield with a 13.7% target share over the past five weeks and a 36.0% rushing share in that same time. It's a near coin flip between them, but I'll side with Foreman, as he has a 46.4% red zone rushing share compared to Hilliard's 7.7% rushing share.

Julio Jones ($6,000) is the top receiving option for the Titans with A.J. Brown on injured reserve. Jones has posted over 10 FanDuel points a single time this season in his seven games, but hopefully, he can make it a second time this week. The Steelers allow the 10th-most (29.9) FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, putting him in a good spot at a very affordable salary.

Truthfully, no one else is that intriguing for the Titans' offense, but the ones that are viable aren't expensive and allow you to spend up elsewhere.

The Steelers have at least some exciting offensive options to choose from, and it starts with Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600). Did I really just type that in the year 2021? Big Ben is an exciting fantasy option? He might be turning back the clock a bit and has, surprisingly, posted 19 FanDuel points or more in three of his last four games, with three touchdowns in two of those games.

He's less expensive than Tannehill and is showing a higher fantasy ceiling in recent games, which makes him the quarterback to target in this matchup.

Based on volume alone, Najee Harris ($8,000) is the top option in this entire game, regardless of team or position. He consistently has close to or more than 20 total touches per game, leads the team in rushing attempts and red zone rushing attempts, and has the third-highest red zone target share. Play Harris.

Diontae Johnson ($7,200) leads the team with a 30.9% target share but has the second-highest (20.0%) red zone target share. With the Titans allowing the second-most (35.0) FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, he is also a priority option for this game.

Chase Claypool ($6,400) is a step behind Johnson in terms of target share (18.3%) and red zone target share (20.0%), but Claypool has a higher average depth of target (12.0) compared to Johnson (9.1). Claypool is fine only if you need the salary or are looking to get away from the chalk.

The wild card in all of this is tight end Pat Freiermuth ($5,300), who has the third-highest (15.6%) target share but leads the team with a 31.3% red zone target share. His salary and high-equity targets make him a compelling option this week for a games stack or just as a value option at tight end.

A Big Ben, Harris, and Johnson stack isn't overly expensive and will allow you to comfortably roster Jones as a bring-back option.