3 NFL Player Props for Wild Card Sunday
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Rob Gronkowski Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Rob Gronkowski's receiving yards prop is way too low this week.
What do we know about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense? They are without both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, removing two of their top receiving options. This has led to Gronk seeing nine targets or more in four of his final five games of the season. In three of those games, he had 10-plus targets. Over these final five games of the season, Gronk piled up 366 receiving yards (73.2 yards per game).
Right from there, it seems there's a bit of a gap between his recent offensive usage and where his prop is set. Add in the fact he's up against the Philadelphia Eagles, who allowed the sixth-most (1,035) receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, and Gronk is set to smash this prop.
Dalton Schultz Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
We go from one tight end over prop to a tight end under prop.
The under on Dalton Schultz's 39.5 receiving yards prop is where I'm looking this Sunday for a few reasons. The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is about as tough as you can imagine for Schultz; they allowed a total of just 582 receiving yards to tight ends for the entire season -- third-fewest in the league.
Schultz is also fighting an uphill battle within the Dallas Cowboys' offense since both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are the primary receiving options taking up most of the team's target share. Even with Michael Gallup out for the year, their offense is still very busy. We've also seen Cedrick Wilson emerge as a third wide receiver, gaining over five targets per game over the course of their last five games.
Long story short, it's a tough defensive matchup for Schultz, and with the Cowboys' passing offense so dispersed, there's not a ton of upside for receiving yards.
Diontae Johnson Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
A receiving under for the Pittsburgh Steelers is a prop to consider this Sunday.
The Steelers are on the road in Kansas City Chiefs and come in with a slate-low 16.75 implied team total. Having the lowest team total on the slate isn't a good indication their players will be hitting the over on too many of their props. The under on Diontae Johnson's 60.5 receiving yards is the spot to attack Sunday night.
Johnson has been held under this total (60.5 yards) in four out of his final five games in the regular season. We also have to account for the fact the Steelers are expected to have JuJu Smith-Schuster return to the lineup for Sunday's game, after being out since October. If Johnson isn't hitting the over on the prop normally, AND they add in another strong receiving option, it all points to the under on 60.5 yards.