FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Divisional Round (Bills at Chiefs)
On NFL odds, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites in a game with a 53.5-point total. That makes the implied score 27.50-26.00 in the Chiefs' favor.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
What an awesome single-game slate this is. We have star power all over the place, and the 53.5-point total is by far the highest of the Divisional Round. It should be a heck of a game, and it should be a lot of fun for fantasy. Both offenses should have a cinder block on the gas pedal for four quarters.
The quarterbacks stand out as outstanding MVP options -- shocking, I know. We project Josh Allen ($17,500 on FanDuel) and Patrick Mahomes ($17,000) for 22.8 and 22.0 FanDuel points, respectively, while no other player boasts a projection of more than 15.4.
Allen nuked the New England Patriots for 38.92 FanDuel points in a monster game last week. His dual-threat prowess gives him a fantastic floor/ceiling combination. Allen has totaled at least 21.8 FanDuel points in six straight, and he's gone for at least 30.96 points in half of those outings. He got to KC for 36.50 FanDuel points earlier this year, and it'll be interesting to see whether it's Allen or Mahomes who carries more MVP popularity.
Mahomes is in the midst of a great run, as well, posting at least 20.32 FanDuel points in six consecutive games. He went off for 38.06 FanDuel points against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Mahomes doesn't run as much as Allen does, but he does offer some rushing juice, going for at least 23 rushing yards in three straight games. Mahomes scored 20.98 points in the regular-season meeting with Buffalo, but they'll be sans Tre'Davious White this time around.
I'm assuming the vast majority of lineups will feature either Allen or Mahomes at MVP, so going somewhere else is a way to be different. We have some quality alternatives. You just need to make sure you really like the upside of someone if you pass on Mahomes or Allen in the multiplier spot.
My favorite of the bunch is Stefon Diggs ($13,5000). I don't think he'll see as much MVP love as KC's top two weapons do -- more on them in a second -- and I think he's just as good of an option. He definitely has a better matchup than they do as the Chiefs allow the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (29.2). Diggs saw just four targets in an extremely positive game script a week ago, but he'd logged at least nine looks in each of the three games before that. We have him projected for 13.7 FanDuel points.
As for Tyreek Hill ($14,000) and Travis Kelce ($14,500), matchups don't matter too much for them. They're viable MVP options on every single-game slate they're on. However, it's at least worth mentioning that they have difficult on-paper matchups as the Bills permit the fewest FanDuel points per game to wideouts (19.1) and the third-fewest to tight ends (6.2). And over the last four weeks, Kelce and Hill both have just an 18% target share -- though Hill was banged up for one game.
I prefer Hill between the two of them. The aforementioned absence of White helps Hill's outlook, and although Tyreek has been held to single-digit FanDuel points in five of his last seven games, we know what kind of single-game ceiling he possesses. Our model projects him to put up 15.4 FanDuel points, tops among non-quarterbacks.
Kelce was at his best last week, making five receptions for 108 yards and a score while showing off his ability to make big plays. He went nuts for 36.1 FanDuel points in Week 16, and he's capable of a huge game even in a bad matchup. We have him scoring 14.8 FanDuel points.
Among the guys we've yet to mention, Devin Singletary ($13,000) projects as the best play. He's emerged as the clear top back for the Bills, garnering at least 17 total touches in five straight games. In that span, he's punched in eight total touchdowns while producing at least 16.1 FanDuel points every time out.
You can make a case for using Singletary at MVP, but I'll stick to haveing him in a flex spot. Our algorithm forecasts him to finish with 11.8 FanDuel points.
Dawson Knox ($12,500) scored two tuds with 89 yards last week, and that's pushed his salary too high. He's projected for only 7.2 FanDuel points, according to our numbers, and rates out as a horrible point-per-dollar play. That pushes me to Cole Beasley ($9,500), Gabriel Davis ($10,000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($8,500).
None of the three receivers project particularly well, and with Sanders back in the fold last week, it dinged everyone's outlook as Beasley and Sanders played just 30% and 46% of the snaps, respectively. Of the trio, Davis is the guy I'm most into, but Sanders' salary is appealing. I don't mind the idea of throwing a dart at Sanders and hoping his role progresses in what should be a shootout in his second week back.
I have no idea what to do with Kansas City's backfield.
Darrel Williams ($10,500) hasn't practiced through Thursday. With Williams hobbled last week, Jerick McKinnon ($11,500) broke out, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($11,500) is going to play on Sunday. It is trending toward a McKinnon-CEH split. We'll have to see how the usage is divvied up. It's hard to imagine KC benching McKinnon after how he played last week, so if I roll the dice on a Chiefs running back, it'll be him. The masses might stay away from this backfield, so hitting on the right piece could help you gain leverage on the field.
As is usually the case with Kansas City, it's hard to get too excited about any of their pass-catchers outside of Kelce and Mahomes.
Byron Pringle ($10,000) owns a 14% target share and 17% air yards share over the last four games, and he played 57% of the snaps last week. It's a decent role. The salary is pretty hard to stomach, though, so if I'm taking a shot on one of Kansas City's ancillary receivers, it'll be Mecole Hardman ($8,000) or Demarcus Robinson ($7,500). Hardman tied Pringle with a 57% snap share in the Wild Card Round, and Robinson played 51% of the snaps. I don't feel great about either, but we have to save salary somewhere.
Kickers are best suited for low-scoring games, and this doesn't shape up as one of those. Plus, it's outdoors in cold weather. I don't think I'll have much of either Harrison Butker ($9,500) or Tyler Bass ($9,000). They do help save salary, though, which will be precious on this slate.