4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 3
Stacks are usually the backbone of the best FanDuel lineups, especially in tournaments. Brandon Gdula's piece examining hit rates and correlation for stacks is a must-read article whether you're already familiar with stacking or new to the concept.
This piece will lay out my favorite weekly stacks. So, read on to see the stacks I'm firing up this week.
Goedert is a holdover from my values plays piece for this week. He blossomed last year after the Philadelphia Eagles traded Zach Ertz, and he's carried his momentum into this year. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's fifth with 2.00 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR) out of 36 tight ends with at least five targets through the first two weeks. Goedert has also been a yards-after-contact (YAC) stud. Per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he's had the fourth-most yards after contact (103 YAC) through two games.
Brown is only a few spots lower, ranking sixth with 101 YAC. Philadelphia's new alpha wideout has also been highly efficient. Out of 69 receivers with at least eight targets, he's seventh with 2.99 Y/RR.
Additionally, Brown has commanded a massive volume of looks. According to SIS, he's second in target share (35.0 percent). When a wide receiver blends a high volume with elite efficiency, they're fantasy superstars, and Brown has fit the bill. Brown has parlayed his usage into the seventh-most receiving yards per game (112.0).
Hurts is the trigger-man making Philly's offense click through two contests. The dual-threat quarterback has taken a massive step forward as a passer. As a result, per Pro Football Reference, he's had the seventh-most passing yards per game (288.0) and the sixth-most adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.01 ANY/A). Moreover, Hurts's rushing ability hasn't abandoned him, evidenced by him rushing for 147 yards and three touchdowns this year.
The numberFire algorithm recognizes Hurts's ability to pile up points on the ground and through the air, projecting him as the second-highest scorer with the highest point-per-dollar value score on FanDuel's main slate in Week 3.
There's also potential for a break-neck pace that's excellent for Hurts and his suggested stacking partners Brown and Goedert. According to Football Outsiders, the Washington Commanders are 15th in situation-neutral pace, and the Eagles are 5th. The Eagles play fast, and Washington might be forced to play faster in catch-up mode as 6.5-point home underdogs.
Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings
The Detroit Lions are a one-team fantasy bonanza. First, they've played at the fastest situation-neutral pace and scored 35.5 points per game. Second, the defense has yielded 32.5 points per game. So, they're the dream fantasy football team for their integral players and the opposition. When the Lions take the field, there's a recipe for a shootout.
Detroit's primary beneficiary has been St. Brown. The second-year receiver is on an exceptional heater. Since last year, he's caught at least eight passes in eight straight games. Additionally, during his torrid stretch, ARSB has averaged 108.6 yards from scrimmage and scored nine touchdowns. Goodness gracious. St. Brown has been from another planet.
Moreover, the narrative that St.Brown thrived last year only because of the absences in Detroit's offense has died quickly this year. Among all wideouts, he's had the 3rd-highest target share (33.8%), 11th-most receiving yards per game (90.0), 5th-most receptions per game (8.5), and has tied for the 2nd-most receiving touchdowns (three). ARSB is a baller, and he's an optimizer darling, projecting as the WR7 with the WR6 value score. As a result, St. Brown can be locked into lineups in all game types.
Justin Jefferson is an excellent bring-back choice and is in many of my lineups. However, I love Dalvin Cook in a get-right matchup. Detroit's run defense is dead last by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Cook clowned Detroit in the only game he played against them last year, steamrolling them for 206 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and two receptions for 46 yards through the air.
In addition, the game script should be good. The Minnesota Vikings are 5.5-point favorites and tied for the highest implied total (29.00 points). It was also encouraging that Cook toted the rock 20 times and hauled in three receptions in a 16-point victory in Week 1.
Cook is popping in the optimizer. He's projected as the RB3 with the highest value score this week. The Vikes' back is an awesome option in all game types, just like ARSB.
Kansas City Chiefs
Bring-back Option: Ashton Dulin ($5,600)
Mahomes is in an eruption spot this week against defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
Patrick Mahomes has played Gus Bradley's defenses 7 times
Bradley's Colts D has allowed a 72% completion rate to start the season (#31)...
and that came vs Davis Mills & Trevor Lawrence@LordReebs digs into the Chiefs/Colts matchup https://t.co/GhmcS8FGMF
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 21, 2022
Colts are 2nd in MOFC defense and 30th in success rate on those snaps, per SIS. Hello Chiefs.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 23, 2022
Mahomes has carved up Bradley's defenses before. The former MVP lit Bradley's the Las Vegas Raiders for 664 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two meetings last year. Mahomes has the ceiling is to lead FanDuel's main slate in scoring this week.
Kelce has been the consistent piece of the Kansas City Chiefs' passing attack this year, although his five receptions for 51 scoreless yards on seven targets last week was disappointing. Still, Derwin James is a freak who has given Kelce trouble throughout their respective careers. Thus, I'm giving Kelce a pass and fixating on his eight receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
Kelce's 2.57 Y/RR is the second-highest mark among tight ends with at least five targets this year. Interestingly, Kelce has been used deeper this season. According to SIS, he's had an 8.2-yard average depth of target in his career and sported a 7.8-yard average depth of target in 2021. Kelce has kicked that up to a 9.9-yard average depth of target so far this year.
Kelce is the obvious stacking partner with Mahomes. He's also a standout for our algorithm, projecting as the TE1 with the highest value score at the position. In short, Kelce is a desirable option in all game types.
MVS and Watson are my choices to round out a Mahomes double-stack. They're both field-stretching wideouts who don't need many shots to succeed. Mahomes was 6-for-14 for 193 yards and two touchdowns on passes of at least 15 air yards against Bradley's pass defense last season. He completed 5-of-10 targets to receivers on those plays for 155 yards and a touchdown.
I was also encouraged by the Indianapolis Colts' showing against field-stretching slot Christian Kirk last week. Kirk caught all six of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns. He secured his only target of at least 15 air yards for a 26-yard reception. There's potential for MVS or Watson ripping off a big play or multiple big plays.
And, of course, Watson made the most of his deep target last week against superstar cornerback J.C. Jackson.
Chiefs WR Justin Watson gets J.C. Jackson turned around at the top of the route and dusts him for the long TD. pic.twitter.com/pFWIh4RTgb
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 16, 2022
He also made some plays in the preseason.
The opposite of that story is Justin Watson. It seems like all he's done in two preseason games is make plays. He's caught 7 of 9 targets for 98 yards & a TD. He's the #Chiefs' clear-cut WR5 & he's going to make some plays this season. pic.twitter.com/p4KkMX4Xjo
— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) August 22, 2022
Watson should continue to see rotational action as a big-play weapon.
Finally, according to PFF, JuJu Smith-Schuster has played 50.0% of his passing snaps in the slot. However, MVS has played 36.2% of his passing snaps in the slot, and Watson has played 11 of 17 passing snaps in the slot. So, Andy Reid has rotated wideouts into the slot.
Kelce and a second receiver can eat this week if Mahomes torches Bradley again, and a Mahomes double-stack has the ceiling to carry a lineup to the top of a tournament.
I made the case for Pierce earlier this week in my values article, so instead of rehashing that, I suggest checking out the linked piece. However, the short version is that Pierce's snap share surged to 62.7 percent in Week 2, he ran 15 routes (to 20 for Rex Burkhead), and touched the ball 16 times for 77 scrimmage yards. The rookie's workload was encouraging, and he should be busy again in a probable neutral game script.
Houston's defense has an excellent matchup on the other side of the ball. According to StatHead, Justin Fields has had the highest sack rate (12.09 percent) and highest interception rate (4.0 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts since last year.
Sacks and turnovers are the recipes for defensive point scoring, and our projections have the Texans with the third-highest value score on defense.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.