3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 4
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+120)
This tight divisional matchup has a very close 1.5-point spread, hopefully, presenting a back-and-forth game. This should lead to solid opportunities for Deebo Samuel, a player that can do it all for the 49ers.
Through the first three games of the season, Samuel is averaging 9.6 total touches per game, seeing work in both the passing game and the rushing game. The 49ers consistently manufacture ways to get the ball in Samuel's hands, which is nothing new.
Samuel comes in playing on 79.4% of the snaps, running a route on 89.8% of dropbacks, 26.6% target market share, 16.7% red zone target market share, and 12.5% red zone rushing market share. He's involved in all areas of the 49ers' offense yet hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1.
The Rams' defense is in the bottom 12 of the league for the most yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. Samuel is in a good spot to find the endzone with solid odds in tow.
Jeff Wilson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-102)
When it comes to the 49ers' offense, they are a run-heavy team.
To be exact, they come in with a 53.68% rush play percentage, which is the fourth-highest in the league. That equates to 33.7 team rushing attempts per game, also the fourth-highest. This is nothing new and a trend we've seen over the last few years when they've had Kyle Shanahan as their head coach.
Over the last two weeks, Jeff Wilson is playing on 59.8% of the team's snaps, the highest among their running backs and is averaging 15 rushing attempts per game. Again, running the ball is the name of the game for the 49ers, who are averaging the seventh-most (151) rushing yards per game this season.
Our projections have Wilson going for 19.10 rushing attempts, clear over his 15.5 projected mark tonight. The 49ers will lean on the run game, and that means plenty of work for Wilson tonight.
Tyler Higbee Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Finally, it's time to fade a Rams pass-catcher.
That would be tight end Tyler Higbee and the under on 41.5 receiving yards tonight. Thus far this season, Higbee has actually been solid with 57 yards per game, 23.8% target market share, playing on 94.9% of offensive snaps, and running a route on 81.1% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks.
It's been a solid start to the season for Higbee, but he has a very tough matchup tonight. The 49ers' defense has only allowed 23 yards and 5 receptions to opposing tight ends through the first three weeks of the season. Granted, they have played the Chicago Bears, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos -- all teams that aren't known for their offense or elite tight ends.
However, the 49ers' defense is legitimately good, and the potential matchups for Higbee are very tough. Four out of the five linebackers and safeties that would normally cover Higbee are all ranked in the top 20 at their positions, per Pro Football Focus.
Higbee has been great to start the year, but it's time for some regression.