Monday Night Football Betting: Is San Francisco the Sharp Bet as a Home Favorite?
The finale of Week 4 takes us to the west coast for a divisional game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. A win for the Rams will give them an early one-game lead in the division, while a 49ers victory will put each NFC West team at 2-2 heading into next week.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rush Offense NEP Rank |
Pass Offense NEP Rank |
Rush Defense NEP Rank |
Pass Defense NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 1.59 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 21 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2.88 | 8 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 6 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is giving a slight edge to San Francisco, having them winning outright 64.5% of the time and covering the 1.5-point spread only 61.8% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the 49ers moneyline odds are -122 (implied probability 55.8%), and odds to cover the spread are set at -112 (52.8%).
This yields nice values for taking the 49ers straight up or against the spread (ATS), with our model rating the former a three-star wager and the latter a two-star wager.
The point total line for this matchup sits at 42.5 points, but our model gives a 62.3% chance these NFC West rivals will put up more points has the over (-105 odds, 51.2% implied) a three-star bet -- and the best value amongst the standard bets.
Player Prop Value Bets
Last season betting on Cooper Kupp to go over his yardage prop was almost always a smart move.
This season has been more of the same with Kupp eclipsing 100 receiving yards in two of three games. And, in 2021 the 49ers did very little to limit Kupp’s production during the three games the two teams played last season.
| Week | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | Rec Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 13 | 11 | 122 | 0 |
| 18 | 7 | 7 | 118 | 1 |
| NFC Championship | 14 | 11 | 142 | 2 |
Our player projection model has Kupp slated for 104.8 receiving yards, and his corresponding prop line is 93.5 yards (-110 odds). Fire up Kupp's over here yet again.
While Kupp didn’t put up huge receiving numbers last week, he still found the end zone. Actually, since the start of last season and including the playoffs, Kupp has been held out of the endzone in only 6 of 24 total games. While -110 is a bit steep for anytime touchdown, it’s still a good value bet.
Final Notes
Over the last two seasons, this matchup has gone under the point total in four of the five contests (including the playoffs). But, in those games, the average point total was over 47 -- way more than the 42.5 line for this game.
San Francisco has won the last six regular season games against the Rams despite being favored in only one of those games.
On their way to a Super Bowl victory last season, the Rams did come out on top when the two teams met in the playoffs, but San Francisco still pushed a three-point spread.
That leaves Kyle Shanahan 8-2-1 ATS against McVay since the pair were hired in 2017. They're 6-1-1 ATS when Jimmy Garoppolo has started for S.F.
