3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 5

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.

Melvin Gordon Any Time Touchdown (+120) and
Melvin Gordon Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

The Denver Broncos are hosting the Indianapolis Colts, and the over/under is set at 42.5-points.

Broncos running back Javonte Williams is out for the year with an ACL injury. It's a big blow to the Broncos' offense, but it presents an opening for Melvin Gordon to step into a larger role.

Thus far this season, Gordon has been playing on 33.6% of the offensive snaps, running a route on 25.9% of drop backs, and amassing an 8.0% target share. Modest numbers overall, but he was the second-string back behind Williams. That is set to change this week, and we want to capitalize on that via some player props.

While "coach speak" can be tough to quantify, it has to be noted that the Broncos' offensive coordinator, Justin Outen, said, "With Melvin, he is going to carry the load, obviously." Gordon has been on the team for a few years, was already playing a decent amount, and has the backing of the coaches.

This is what we want to be buying into tonight with Gordon. For the any time touchdown prop, it's great to see that Gordon already had a 44.4% red zone rushing market share this season. He held that rate while Williams was in the lineup, an encouraging sign Gordon will have the ball when they are in the scoring area with Williams now out.

Next up, over 11.5 receiving yards for Gordon. As noted above, he has a modest 8.0% target share this season, and that has led to a total of 49 receiving yards -- an average of 12.25 yards per game.

Through four weeks, the Colts' defense has allowed the sixth-most receptions (24) to running backs as well as the seventh-most receiving yards (178) to the position. This puts Gordon in a nice spot to rack up some pass-game volume, and our projections have him going for 18.95 receiving yards, hitting the over on this prop.

Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Courtland Sutton is the top receiving option for Denver, and over 64.5 yards is the spot to look.

It's no secret the Broncos' offense has been off to a slow start this season, but I'm buying in on their attack tonight. They have a 23.0-point implied team total and should be able to put some points on the board.

The Denver offense has a 57.89% pass-play percentage this season, which is 20th in the league. It's clear they haven't been a pass-heavy offense, and when they air it out, it often goes to Sutton.

On the season, Sutton has a 28.0% target share, which is nearly 12.0 percentage points higher than the next most targeted player, Jerry Jeudy (16.8%). Sutton also leads the team with a whopping 42.0% air yards share -- way higher than Jeudy's 22.4% clip.

When Denver drops back to pass, it's going to Sutton a lot of the time, and it's going to him downfield. The Colts' pass defense ranks 11th-worst, per our metrics, making this a favorable matchup for Sutton.

All of this leads to Sutton being projected for 71.75 receiving yards, a decent amount over this prop.