Week 5 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.0 (-110)
Player Prop: Nick Chubb Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The wind is up in this game, Chubb is the best back in football at gaining yards over expectation, and the Chargers are allowing 1.57 yards over expected on a per-carry basis. He should see as much work as he can handle and put up results in this soft spot while the game clock grinds down.
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Seattle Seahawks +5.5 (-110)
This could simply be an overreaction to Geno mania the past week. But it's more about the New Orleans Saints' side of it for me, at least. They're on a rough travel schedule coming back from London, and several key offensive pieces are banged up. As a result, I think there's value in Seattle in this game both on the spread and the moneyline.
Player Prop: A.J. Brown Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: New England Patriots -3.5 (-110)
The Pats will likely go with a run-heavy offensive plan. That does not bode well for the Lions, who rank dead last versus the run by our schedule-adjusted metrics. I expect the Patriots to hand it to their backs early and often, and I think Bill Belichick's defense can halt Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions' streaking offense.
Player Prop: Rhamondre Stevenson Any Time Touchdown (+120)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: New England Patriots -3.5 (-105)
While this should be one of the week's better games in terms of pace, this matchup ranks dead last in pass rate over expectation, per our Brandon Gdula. Of course, this mostly has to do with the Bears' run-heavy offense, as Justin Fields has yet to attempt more than 22 passes in a game this year. All of Chicago's games have failed to reach this total thus far. The Vikings could also be a step behind after playing a London game last week, further pointing toward the under.
Player Prop: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.0 (-108)
Player Prop: Kirk Cousins Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Through four weeks of the NFL season, the Vikings have a 64.96% pass-play percentage, which is the fifth-highest in the league. This has led to Cousins posting 38-plus passing attempts in three of the four games -- good for an average of 39.25 attempts per game.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Cam Akers Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
It feels like Cam Akers is in a sneaky spot to break out on Sunday. He played just 38.3% of the snaps last week, but that was in an exclusively negative script. When leading in Week 3, it was a 50-50 split with he and Darrell Henderson. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites at home, and the ground game will be their path of least resistance. The Cowboys are the sixth-best team against the pass, per our numbers, but they're fourth-worst against the rush. Akers also got the only red zone carry last week from an L.A. tailback, so his +210 anytime touchdown odds are super appealing, as well.