FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Thursday Night (Commanders at Bears)
If the stench of last Thursday's hard-to-watch game still lingers for you, this matchup isn't likely to wash it away.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Washington Commanders are 1.0-point road favorites over the Chicago Bears in a game with a lowly 37.5-point total. That makes the implied score 19.25-18.25 in favor of Washington.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
With this game holding a 37.5-point total, it's not a bad slate to get weird at MVP. One long score could be enough to make any player the optimal MVP. We've seen D/STs lead single-game slates in scoring in recent island games, and that could happen again in this one. I think these kinds of slates are really fun.
Fields has been kept on a tight leash all season, attempting no more than 22 passes in any game. That obviously dings his DFS upside, but it might not matter as much on this slate.
Fields' rushing ability is the big draw, as he's run for between 47 and 52 yards in three straight. He's also coming off his best passing performance of the season, going 15 for 21 for 208 yards and a tuddie last week. Washington has permitted the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (19.4), so the matchup is there. We project Fields for 15.4 FanDuel points, the second-most, and he'll likely be the chalk MVP.
I don't like swallowing chalk at MVP, so that pushes me elsewhere. Wentz intrigues me. He paces the slate with a projection of 15.8 FanDuel points, according to our model, and with public perception pretty down on him, Wentz might not be a popular MVP choice.
Wentz has actually been decent for fantasy so far this year, averaging 19.9 FanDuel points per game and hitting for at least 22.0 points in three of five games. Fields' single-game high this year is 17.02 FanDuel points. Wentz offers a little juice as a runner, and he's going to throw it more -- maybe wayyyy more -- than Fields does, as Wentz has attempted at least 38 passes in all five of his games this year. I'm very interested in Wentz, particularly if it seems like he won't be all that popular of an MVP pick.
With Montgomery fresh off an injury and on a short week, I'm hesitant to use him at MVP. He did, however, play 72.3% of the snaps last week, taking over as the lead back right away, so if there are no restrictions on the short week, Montgomery offers plenty of MVP appeal. We have him scoring 13.6 FanDuel points.
Among the rest, Terry McLaurin ($13,000) is the player I'm most interested in. While he's faced stiffer-than-expected competition for targets this year, McLaurin has seen at least six targets in four straight games, although his 15% target share is underwhelming. But on a slate where one chunk play could carry a lot of weight, McLaurin's team-best 28% air yards share has my attention. Our algorithm has McLaurin posting 9.6 FanDuel points.
Samuel paces Washington in target share (21%), but his 13% air yards share is a downer. He's seen at least seven looks in each game, though, and if this winds up being a super low-scoring slate, he can get into the optimal lineup without a touchdown based on the volume.
Robinson debuted last week and took nine carries for 22 yards while getting zero targets. He was third in the backfield in snap rate, playing 27.6% of the snaps, compared to 32.8% and 41.4% for Antonio Gibson ($9,000) and J.D. McKissic ($7,500), respectively. Robinson's role will likely grow as the campaign progresses, but with this being a short week, it's hard to buy into him seeing a big boost in volume for this one.
If you think the Bears win, McKissic makes a ton of sense as a quality pass-game back at an easy-to-like salary.
For Chicago, Darnell Mooney ($9,500) projects best outside of Fields and Montgomery. Mooney's 24% target share and 42% air yards share are exciting numbers -- until you remember how little the Bears pass. Mooney has topped out at six targets in a game, but he's racked up 146 yards over the previous two weeks. Facing a Washington D that has surrendered the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (35.2), Mooney is an excellent flex choice who you could even make an MVP case for if you wanted to get weird.
Both kickers and defenses are fully in play. Chicago D/ST ($9,500) and Washington D/ST ($9,500) project fairly evenly by our numbers -- 8.0 and 8.4 FanDuel points, respectively -- and I think Chicago's D/ST will be chalky due to the date with Wentz. They're a sweet play, but I'm tempted to pivot to the Commanders' D/ST against Fields, who has eight turnover-worthy plays, per PFF, and has taken 18 sacks.
Assuming Logan Thomas is out again, John Bates ($5,500) needs to be on your radar. He led Washington's tight ends with a 58.6% snap rate last week sans Thomas and hauled in all three of his targets for 39 yards. He's great for a stars-and-scrubs build.