3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 9
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Miles Sanders Any Time Touchdown (+100)
Welcome to Chalk City. Population: Miles Sanders!
Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday Night with the Philadelphia Eagles as massive 14.0-point favorites on the road to take on the Houston Texans. This point spread shouldn't be a surprise; the Eagles are very good and the Texans are very bad. There are still plenty of player props to consider.
We start with a Miles Sanders any-time touchdown at even money -- the chalkiest of chalk spots for a primetime game. The Texans have allowed a league-worst 1,114 rushing yards to running backs and the second-most (10) rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. It's essentially the easiest matchup Sanders could possibly face, and we get him at even money.
Sanders is playing on 59.5% of the offensive snaps this season, averaging 16.3 rushing attempts per game but, most importantly, accounts for 38.8% of the team's red zone rushing attempts. That rate is the second-highest on the team behind Jalen Hurts (44.9%) -- but the highest among the Eagles' running backs.
Everything is looking up for Sanders and his touchdown prop tonight. It's as simple as that.
Brevin Jordan Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
So who's going to catch passes for the Texans tonight?
The Texans are going to be without their top two wide receivers, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, for various reasons. Those two players combine to account for 37.6% of the Texans' target tree, leaving plenty of room for other players to step up.
One player to step up could be Brevin Jordan, who has a very modest receiving prop of only 21.5 yards tonight, and I like the over. To this point in the season, Jordan has very modest stats, as you could probably assume. He comes in with a 9.9% target share, playing on 49.4% of the snaps, running a route on 48.1% of drop backs, and holding a 7.2 average depth of target (aDOT).
These should all see a bump tonight with Cooks and Collins out of the lineup. Combine that with the fact the Texans are 14.0-point underdogs, they should be forced into a positive passing game script. This puts Jordan, who is normally a secondary or tertiary option, to be a primary pass-catcher for the Texans.
With all of that said, Jordan comes in projected for 41.51 receiving yards -- clearly over his prop tonight.
Jalen Hurts Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Finally, surprisingly, I like under 41.5 rushing yards for Jalen Hurts.
Yes, Hurts is amazing, but the under is the spot to look tonight. Hurts has gone under this 41.5 rushing mark in four of the seven games this season. Three of those came in the last four weeks.
Despite the Texans' not being a good team or defense, they've been solid against rushing quarterbacks. They've only allowed a total of 94 rushing yards, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. On top of that, they've actually faced some solid rushing quarterbacks such as Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Malik Willis.
We also have to consider the game environment. The Eagles are 14.0-point favorites, and the likelihood is they are in control of the game. That would put them in a spot to keep things simple and run the ball with their running backs.
The three times Hurts went over 41.5 rushing yards this season, he dropped back to pass at least 31 times. The point spread would indicate the Eagles won't need to pass the ball a ton, thus, limiting the chances Hurts has to rush the ball.