Monday Night Football Betting: Can the Saints Win Outright as Home Underdogs?
The Week 9 finale has the banged-up New Orleans Saints hosting the very banged-up Baltimore Ravens. You’re going to have to scroll a lot to see the whole injury report.
A Baltimore win will give them a one-game lead in the AFC North heading into their much-needed bye week. If the Saints come out on top, they will keep tied atop the NFC South with a 4-5 record.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rush Offense NEP Rank | Pass Offense NEP Rank | Rush Defense NEP Rank | Pass Defense NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 2.73 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 16 |
| New Orleans Saints | 1.17 | 10 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 11 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model sees this as a very even matchup, expecting the Saints to win outright 54.2% of the time. With the additional 1.5-points from the spread, New Orleans is expected to cover 56.4% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds for the Saints to cover the spread are set at -108 (51.9% implied probability) with the moneyline odds sitting at +106 (48.5% implied).
In tonight’s matchup, we have a slight underdog that has a very slight edge, per numberFire's model. This puts both the Saints' moneyline and spread wagers at one-star values -- with the plus-odds giving the moneyline a bit more juice.
The point total sits at 46.5 points, and numberFire’s model gives a 53.4% chance the over will hit. At -110 odds (52.4% implied) our model is setting the over as a one-star wager.
Player Prop Value Bets
This week’s player prop bets are all about touchdowns. Alvin Kamara scored his first three touchdowns of the season last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. His anytime touchdown odds are -110, which I think is influenced by an always lingering Taysom Hill vulture -- and the fact he went without a touchdown until last week.
Our player projection model has Kamara at an expected 0.81 touchdowns scored (combining rushing and receiving), which is significantly higher than any other player tonight. With Mark Ingram out tonight and the possibility of a higher-scoring game than expected, even at minus odds, betting that Kamara crosses the goal line tonight is a great idea.
Next, let’s take Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +108 odds. Lamar has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four of eight games. Yes, Mark Andrews is out tonight, but the Ravens' offense has had time to prepare Isaiah Likely for a larger role this week. Lamar is projected to throw for 1.83 touchdowns via our projection model.
You may be thinking, “I like plus odds, but what about really long odds?”
Are +1100 odds long enough for you? Those are Rashid Shaheed's anytime touchdown odds, and I think that bet is definitely worth a sprinkle.
Shaheed has been getting more involved in the offense over the last three weeks. His offensive snap percentage going from 13% in Week 6 to 23% last week. With Jarvis Landry listed as questionable and a limited participant in practice all week, opportunities for the speedy Shaheed should still be there.
Final Notes
-- The Ravens’ last five games have been decided by an average of 3.4 points. No game was decided by more than five points.
-- Andy Dalton is 6-19 in night games during his career. That includes a loss two weeks ago to Arizona.
-- 78% of the spread money is on the Ravens, who are also receiving 79% of the spread wagers.
