Week 10 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: New York Giants -5.5 (-105)
We all know the Chiefs are an elite offense, but based on the underlying data, my model thinks that both of these offenses are well above the NFL average. However, it views both offenses as having underperformed expectation on an actual output standpoint, so we should expect more points from each moving forward. That model also views both defenses as noticeably worse than average on a per-play basis, so it's a good week for the regression to hit and for the points to pile up.
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Detroit Lions +3.0 (-115)
I'd rather go with the Broncos' team total once that's posted (it's 17.5 elsewhere) so that I don't have exposure to the Titans' offense. But the Broncos are likely undervalued here. They showed a bit of life before their bye with Wilson chucking deep balls, and Nathaniel Hackett has encouraged him to use his legs more. Both are good for overs, and Greg Dulcich's emergence should help them move the ball. Tennessee's defense is still struggling on early downs, so we might have gotten too high on them following the Chiefs game. Plus, on the Titans' side, Derrick Henry should be able to run the ball efficiently, so although I prefer the Broncos' team total, the game over is also attractive.
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: Las Vegas Raiders -4.5 (-114)
The Colts are a really bad team. Indy's -51 point differential is the second-worst mark in the NFL, and their -7.34 nERD ranks third-worst. They've scored a measly 19 points across Sam Ehlinger's two starts. While the Raiders clearly have issues, too, they rate out as a much better team than Indianapolis, sporting a -18 point differential and -3.93 nERD. With this game in Vegas, I'm expecting the Raiders to cover as 5.5-point favorites.
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Seattle Seahawks +3.0 (-118)
If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense couldn't even get on track against the lowly Lions, what hope do they have against the Cowboys? Dallas has the third-best schedule-adjusted defense, per numberFire's metrics, and while they're less stout versus the run, it wouldn't be shocking to see them get out to an early lead and force Rodgers to beat them. Even if Green Bay shows up to play, their sluggish pace combined with the Cowboys' tendency to run the ball should keep this a lower-scoring affair.
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-110)
Both teams find themselves in the league's bottom 10 for the most points allowed this season, which has caused them each to hit the over five times. Justin Fields has the Bears' offense cruising with 29 points or more in each of the last three weeks. Against a weak Lions' defense, he should have no issues replicating that scoring, putting Detroit in a spot to push the ball and attempt to keep up.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Houston Texans +5.5 (-115)
This spread (3.5 points) is an indication that Josh Allen, who has yet to practice this week, likely isn't playing for Buffalo. That'll -- obviously -- significantly impact their offensive efficiency. The Bills and Vikings actually rate out as two of numberFire's top-10 defensive units, and this game has the sixth-slowest average pace on the main slate. Add in some morning snow to this game, and we can fade the public here; 63% of bets are on the over, but a whopping 86% of the handle is on this game being low-scoring.