FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Monday Night (Commanders at Eagles)
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
He's pegged for nearly 10 more FanDuel points than the next-highest player, making him the obvious chalk selection at MVP. The dual-threat quarterback is averaging 40.8 rushing yards per game and is tied for the most rushing scores at the position (6). This is also a good passing matchup for him against Washington's 22nd-ranked adjusted pass defense, per our metrics. Hurts has scored over 27 FanDuel points four times already this year.
However, there's some blowout risk in this matchup, which could potentially lead to a less productive fantasy night if the Eagles dial things back in the second half. Additionally, for all his rushing upside, Hurts has run for fewer than 30 yards and no rushing touchdowns four times this season, three of which have come over the last three games. He's dropped below 17 FanDuel points twice, so there's at least the possibility that he won't be the slate's top scorer.
Brown has enjoyed his first year with Philadelphia, amassing a 30.8% target share and 46.0% air yards share as Hurts' number one option. While the run-heavy nature of this offense has led to fewer spike weeks, Brown had surpassed 150 receiving yards twice, one of which included a whopping three touchdowns (36.6 FanDuel points).
Meanwhile, Sanders is averaging 16.4 carries and 1.6 targets as the Eagles' lead back, and he's the top non-Hurts option inside the 20 with a 42.4% red zone rush share. The Commanders actually rank first against the run in numberFire's metrics, but if the game script works in Sanders' favor, there's a path to multiple touchdowns as we saw in Week 4 against Jacksonville (28.6 FanDuel points).
If you're looking to be a little more contrarian at MVP, DeVonta Smith ($11,500) and Dallas Goedert ($11,500) round out Hurts' top pass-catchers. Smith is second on the team with a 23.3% target share and 27.6% air yards share, and while he has wildly inconsistent results, he got up to 26.9 FanDuel points against this same Washington squad in Week 3. Goedert has the third-best target share (21.1%), but he doesn't get as many deep looks, making him more of a fringe MVP.
Unfortunately, it's hard to get terribly excited about the potential MVPs on Washington, leaving them mostly as flex options outside of strictly game theory reasons.
Taylor Heinicke ($15,000) is their highest-projected player by a decent margin, but this is a brutal matchup against a defense that's allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. He has some rushing upside as we saw in Week 8 versus Indianapolis (23.06 FanDuel points), and it's possible he accumulates points through garbage time if Washington gets down big. But his chances of a spike week look slim in this spot.
The same can be said for wide receiver Terry McLaurin ($12,000). Philadelphia is the second-toughest opponent for wide receivers in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed per target. The good news is that McLaurin remains a solid volume-based play, as he's seen a 28.4% target share and 48.1% air yards share in Heinicke's three starts.
With J.D. McKissic sidelined, Gibson and Robinson split the backfield work pretty evenly last week, and McKissic has already been ruled out again. Robinson has logged just four targets all season, though, so Gibson should be the pass-catching back if the Commanders fall behind, making him the preferred option. But the committee situation does put a damper on the ceilings of both.
Curtis Samuel ($9,000), Jahan Dotson ($8,000), and Logan Thomas ($7,000) are the other relevant Washington options. Samuel is second on the team with an 18.2% target share with Heinicke, and he could avoid cornerback Darius Slay out of the slot. Dotson is playing for the first time since Week 4 and should return to a prominent role after logging a 90.7% snap rate in Weeks 1 through 3. Thomas played 70.5% of the snaps with a 67.7% route rate last week.
Flipping back to the heavily-favored Eagles, both kicker Jake Elliott ($9,500) and the Philadelphia D/ST ($9,500) project well tonight. Elliott has actually hit double-digit FanDuel points just once this year, but we could see him get there if the Eagles consistently find themselves in enemy territory. Heinicke has thrown a pick in each of his three 2022 starts and was tied for the NFL's second-most (15) last season. He was also sacked the seventh-most times in 2021.
Running back Kenneth Gainwell ($8,000) and wide receiver Quez Watkins ($6,500) are possible dart throws. Gainwell logged a 27.4% snap rate behind Miles Sanders last week, leading to 4 rushes and 3 targets. Watkins is a distant third behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in the wideout pecking order, but he plays over half the snaps and could come through if he catches a deep score as he did in Week 2.