5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 13
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,500)
The Trevor Lawrence breakout is occurring before our eyes.
Since Week 9, the second-year signal-caller is Pro Football Focus's (PFF) second-highest graded passer. He completed 76.9 percent of his passes and had 815 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, no interceptions, 8 big-time throws, and 3 turnover-worthy plays during his three-game heater.
Lawrence should maintain momentum after leading the Jacksonville Jaguars to a comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens last week. According to our team power rankings, the Detroit Lions have the fourth-worst pass defense. Further, per Pro Football Reference, Detroit has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (259.9) and are tied for the seventh-most passing touchdowns (18) allowed this season.
The remaining context is also outstanding. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions are eighth in situation-neutral pace, and the Jaguars are 11th. So, the pace might be blistering. The betting info is awesome, too. According to our heat map, the Jags have the third-highest implied total (26.50 points), and the Lions aren't far behind, tying for the fifth-highest implied total (25.00 points).
Thus, Lawrence is an exciting, high-upside pick on FanDuel's main slate in Week 13.
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders ($6,600)
Brian Robinson isn't a bell-cow back or a world-beater. Still, he's out-snapped Antonio Gibson in two of the last three weeks. Yet, even in a shared backfield, Robinson has handled a rock-solid workload.
He's had 13, 26, 15, and 18 rushes in the past four games. The big-bodied back is also coming off his most productive game as a pro, rushing for 105 yards and securing 2 receptions for 20 yards and a touchdown.
The game script might be ideal for Robinson this week. The Washington Commanders are 2.5-point favorites against the New York Giants. The Commanders have been a run-heavy team in the previous four weeks when tied or leading, attempting only 67 passes versus 95 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Moreover, Robinson was atop the heap in that query in rushes (48) and rushing yards (200).
The matchup is also sweet for Robinson. According to Pro Football Reference, running backs have averaged the fourth-most rushing yards per game (116.9) and flamed the G-Men for 5.21 yards per carry this season. Robinson has a nice blend of usage, matchup, and an attractive salary this week, making him an alluring selection.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers ($6,500)
Christian Watson's emergence has been amazing.
The supremely athletic rookie has torched his opponents lately. Watson has 12 receptions 265 receiving yards, 346 air yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns on 20 targets since Week 10. In addition, per PFF, Watson has the 7th-highest yards per route run (2.98 Y/RR) out of 43 wide receivers targeted at least 10 times during his three-game explosion.
The matchup is optimal for Watson to extend his excellence and fend off regression. First, the Chicago Bears have the third-worst pass defense by our metrics. Second, wide receivers have averaged a blistering 14.1 yards per reception against them this season. Third, the last four quarterbacks who've opposed the Bears have completed 14 of 19 passes that traveled at least 15 air yards for 363 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
The biggest concern surrounding Watson's value is the injury status of banged-up Aaron Rodgers. Nevertheless, the reigning back-to-back MVP expects to play for the Green Bay Packers this week. If Rodgers has an unexpected setback, Watson can still pan out with Jordan Love filling in. Watson had an impressive catch-and-run touchdown from Love last week.
Jordan Love. Christian Watson. One-possession game in Philly
: #GBvsPHI on NBC
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/FRZHlv4OoL pic.twitter.com/TxLDZCPdkw
— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2022
Watson won't stay hot forever. The Bears are ill-equipped to cool him down, though. So, it's a fantastic week for using Watson on FanDuel.
Quez Watkins, WR, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,600)
Quez Watkins has mostly been an afterthought as an ancillary option for the Philadelphia Eagles. However, he had 80 yards on four receptions in Week 10, followed up by two receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 and three receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown in Week 12.
The third-year pro has been nudged up the pecking order since Dallas Goedert was injured in Week 10. Watkins' modest usage, even in his new role, creates a risk of a dud. Yet, Watkins' matchup is dreamy.
According to Football Outsiders, other wide receivers (wideouts not deemed the No. 1 or No. 2 wideout for their team by Football Outsiders) have averaged the most receiving yards per game (65.0) against the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has also struggled mightily with deep passes. Quarterbacks have completed 42 of 83 passes that traveled at least 15 air yards for 1,271 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the Titans this year.
Meanwhile, per PFF, Watkins had a 14.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in his previous three games. He's also had 4 receptions for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns on 7 targets of 20-plus yards this season. Therefore, Watkins is a nifty boom-or-bust value choice whose field-stretching ability should be accentuated by his matchup.
Justin Watson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900)
The Kansas City Chiefs' passing game primarily funnels through superstar tight end Travis Kelce. Others have popped up throughout the year in various games. Justin Watson had a few impressive plays in a rotational role early in the year and has quietly carved out a meaningful role in the offense.
According to PFF, Watson has run the most routes (73) for the Chiefs in the past two games. The veteran wideout had just six targets, but his 93 receiving yards were the second-most on the club.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was eased back into action last week after a one-week absence to recover from a concussion. The Chiefs might award him his normal full complement of snaps, but Watson should maintain a role in the receiving corps. Watson might even siphon work from another field-stretching wideout, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS has only four games with at least 60 receiving yards this year and one touchdown in total.
Watson was a lower-profile signing than MVS, but the former is also a height-weight-speed wideout who can stress defenses deep. And most importantly, Watson has run 10 more routes than MVS in the last two games, a possible indication he's in better graces with Andy Reid than the more ballyhooed MVS.
Watson is a risky selection, but he's attached to the FanDuel main slate's highest implied total (27.50) in a projected shootout against the Cincinnati Bengals. The game environment, Watson's expanding role, and the veteran wideout's bargain salary are grounds for taking the plunge with him in tournaments.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.