NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 13
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | $8,800 | 23.2 | 2.61 | 17.2 | 29.2 | 42.1% | 1.29 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,000 | 23.1 | 2.62 | 17.5 | 28.7 | 43.0% | 1.23 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,200 | 21.6 | 2.69 | 16.6 | 27.5 | 36.3% | 1.57 |
| Joe Burrow | $8,300 | 20.9 | 2.57 | 15.9 | 26.4 | 32.0% | 1.17 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,100 | 19.8 | 2.39 | 14.7 | 24.7 | 23.4% | 0.79 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,000 | 19.7 | 2.52 | 13.8 | 25.3 | 26.6% | 0.89 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,500 | 19.4 | 2.66 | 14.3 | 25.7 | 27.2% | 1.35 |
| Justin Fields | $8,500 | 18.2 | 2.28 | 13.5 | 24.3 | 23.0% | 0.53 |
| Geno Smith | $7,600 | 18.1 | 2.37 | 13.0 | 23.5 | 19.5% | 0.76 |
| Jared Goff | $6,800 | 17.7 | 2.58 | 12.5 | 22.8 | 15.5% | 1.24 |
| Derek Carr | $7,300 | 17.3 | 2.45 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 16.3% | 0.91 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,000 | 16.9 | 2.39 | 12.2 | 21.7 | 13.6% | 0.78 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $7,800 | 16.7 | 2.14 | 11.5 | 21.7 | 14.1% | 0.43 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,800 | 16.6 | 2.44 | 11.9 | 22.0 | 15.8% | 0.93 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,400 | 16.5 | 2.27 | 12.1 | 22.0 | 13.6% | 0.61 |
| Kenny Pickett | $6,700 | 16.0 | 2.40 | 11.0 | 20.9 | 11.5% | 0.77 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,200 | 15.1 | 2.09 | 10.5 | 19.6 | 8.5% | 0.41 |
| Mike White | $6,900 | 15.0 | 2.23 | 10.9 | 20.0 | 7.8% | 0.53 |
| Kyle Allen | $6,200 | 14.6 | 2.40 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 8.4% | 0.86 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $6,500 | 14.3 | 2.22 | 8.6 | 19.7 | 9.0% | 0.59 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,100 | 13.6 | 1.89 | 8.7 | 17.7 | 3.9% | 0.24 |
| Russell Wilson | $6,500 | 13.4 | 2.02 | 8.6 | 17.2 | 4.0% | 0.31 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,600 | 13.3 | 2.00 | 8.0 | 17.6 | 4.9% | 0.33 |
| John Wolford | $6,400 | 12.9 | 2.01 | 8.3 | 17.5 | 3.2% | 0.36 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | $9,500 | 20.1 | 2.16 | 15.0 | 26.3 | 52.2% | 3.10 |
| Austin Ekeler | $9,200 | 17.8 | 1.94 | 12.3 | 23.7 | 41.2% | 1.80 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,800 | 17.5 | 2.02 | 12.2 | 23.2 | 38.4% | 1.88 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,200 | 16.7 | 2.07 | 11.7 | 22.3 | 36.5% | 2.27 |
| Nick Chubb | $9,600 | 16.5 | 1.74 | 11.2 | 21.7 | 33.6% | 0.89 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,600 | 16.0 | 1.82 | 10.6 | 20.3 | 25.8% | 1.13 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,600 | 15.9 | 2.13 | 10.5 | 21.4 | 30.7% | 2.26 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $8,100 | 15.6 | 1.93 | 10.4 | 20.9 | 28.1% | 1.54 |
| Travis Etienne | $8,000 | 15.2 | 1.86 | 9.2 | 20.2 | 25.4% | 1.26 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,400 | 14.7 | 1.96 | 9.7 | 19.9 | 24.7% | 1.82 |
| Dameon Pierce | $6,500 | 13.6 | 2.05 | 8.1 | 18.5 | 18.5% | 1.74 |
| David Montgomery | $7,000 | 13.2 | 1.83 | 7.9 | 18.3 | 18.7% | 1.30 |
| Jamaal Williams | $7,500 | 12.9 | 1.72 | 7.7 | 17.8 | 16.6% | 0.93 |
| Najee Harris | $7,300 | 12.4 | 1.72 | 7.6 | 16.6 | 12.7% | 0.83 |
| Miles Sanders | $7,200 | 12.0 | 1.62 | 7.4 | 16.8 | 13.6% | 0.83 |
| Joe Mixon | $8,500 | 11.4 | 1.35 | 6.8 | 16.2 | 10.9% | 0.30 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $7,000 | 11.1 | 1.60 | 6.4 | 16.0 | 12.0% | 0.72 |
| Jeff Wilson | $6,800 | 11.0 | 1.66 | 6.4 | 15.4 | 8.1% | 0.72 |
| Latavius Murray | $6,400 | 10.9 | 1.68 | 6.6 | 14.9 | 7.2% | 0.82 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,400 | 10.8 | 1.66 | 6.2 | 15.4 | 8.3% | 0.85 |
| Samaje Perine | $7,100 | 10.6 | 1.52 | 5.3 | 16.9 | 15.1% | 0.69 |
| Zonovan Knight | $5,800 | 10.4 | 1.73 | 5.9 | 14.4 | 5.7% | 0.93 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,100 | 10.2 | 1.65 | 5.5 | 14.2 | 6.5% | 0.79 |
| Gus Edwards | $6,700 | 9.8 | 1.41 | 4.8 | 14.0 | 5.5% | 0.48 |
| Brian Robinson | $6,600 | 9.7 | 1.43 | 4.8 | 14.2 | 5.9% | 0.49 |
| Kyren Williams | $5,500 | 9.4 | 1.64 | 5.1 | 13.0 | 3.3% | 0.84 |
| A.J. Dillon | $6,900 | 8.7 | 1.23 | 4.3 | 12.9 | 2.5% | 0.23 |
| D'Andre Swift | $6,400 | 7.9 | 1.26 | 3.8 | 12.2 | 2.7% | 0.31 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $4,900 | 7.1 | 1.43 | 3.0 | 11.1 | 1.3% | 0.58 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,000 | 6.9 | 1.18 | 3.4 | 10.8 | 0.7% | 0.22 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,800 | 6.9 | 1.19 | 2.8 | 10.7 | 1.5% | 0.29 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $5,900 | 6.7 | 1.15 | 2.9 | 10.7 | 0.9% | 0.25 |
| Cam Akers | $6,200 | 5.8 | 0.97 | 1.9 | 9.8 | 1.4% | 0.14 |
| Michael Carter | $6,300 | 5.7 | 0.92 | 1.6 | 9.8 | 0.8% | 0.13 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,000 | 5.1 | 1.02 | 1.3 | 8.7 | 0.1% | 0.20 |
| Jaylen Warren | $5,000 | 4.8 | 0.97 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 0.4% | 0.18 |
| James Robinson | $6,300 | 4.7 | 0.71 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 0.4% | 0.06 |
| Ty Johnson | $5,700 | 4.5 | 0.79 | 1.3 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.11 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | $5,000 | 4.4 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 1.4% | 0.31 |
| Justin Jackson | $5,100 | 4.1 | 0.84 | 0.5 | 7.7 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,700 | 4.0 | 0.66 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 0.3% | 0.09 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $8,600 | 17.2 | 2.06 | 12.2 | 22.8 | 51.8% | 2.13 |
| Tyreek Hill | $9,000 | 15.9 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 21.5 | 42.9% | 1.13 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,700 | 15.6 | 1.75 | 10.0 | 20.1 | 37.3% | 0.91 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $8,000 | 15.2 | 1.89 | 10.7 | 19.6 | 37.9% | 1.51 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,900 | 15.1 | 1.68 | 9.7 | 20.2 | 36.8% | 0.78 |
| A.J. Brown | $8,100 | 14.4 | 1.82 | 9.6 | 20.4 | 37.7% | 1.27 |
| Christian Kirk | $7,500 | 13.7 | 1.81 | 8.2 | 18.5 | 28.9% | 1.10 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,800 | 13.3 | 1.66 | 7.6 | 18.3 | 28.6% | 0.84 |
| Tee Higgins | $8,300 | 12.5 | 1.52 | 7.5 | 17.4 | 24.1% | 0.52 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,600 | 12.3 | 1.63 | 7.0 | 17.7 | 26.0% | 0.77 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,800 | 12.2 | 1.81 | 6.9 | 16.9 | 22.8% | 1.04 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $7,900 | 11.6 | 1.45 | 7.3 | 16.2 | 18.3% | 0.44 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,700 | 11.5 | 1.54 | 7.3 | 15.8 | 17.6% | 0.50 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,400 | 11.4 | 1.53 | 6.4 | 15.8 | 17.9% | 0.57 |
| Garrett Wilson | $6,600 | 11.3 | 1.71 | 7.3 | 15.5 | 15.7% | 0.96 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,900 | 11.0 | 1.59 | 6.3 | 16.8 | 22.5% | 0.84 |
| Deebo Samuel | $6,800 | 10.9 | 1.54 | 7.0 | 14.4 | 10.2% | 0.54 |
| Zay Jones | $6,400 | 10.5 | 1.67 | 6.2 | 15.5 | 15.6% | 0.87 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,700 | 10.5 | 1.53 | 6.4 | 14.7 | 12.6% | 0.63 |
| Allen Lazard | $6,400 | 10.0 | 1.56 | 5.6 | 14.2 | 11.7% | 0.63 |
| Nico Collins | $5,800 | 9.8 | 1.67 | 5.3 | 13.7 | 10.2% | 0.79 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $6,100 | 9.7 | 1.67 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 16.6% | 0.86 |
| George Pickens | $6,700 | 9.6 | 1.41 | 4.2 | 14.4 | 12.0% | 0.49 |
| Courtland Sutton | $7,200 | 9.5 | 1.33 | 4.8 | 14.5 | 12.9% | 0.37 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,500 | 9.5 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 13.6 | 9.0% | 0.44 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,900 | 9.5 | 1.32 | 5.2 | 13.0 | 5.6% | 0.26 |
| Christian Watson | $6,500 | 9.2 | 1.40 | 4.5 | 14.0 | 12.3% | 0.47 |
| Mack Hollins | $5,900 | 9.1 | 1.52 | 4.8 | 13.4 | 11.5% | 0.64 |
| Josh Palmer | $6,600 | 8.8 | 1.40 | 5.1 | 12.9 | 6.2% | 0.34 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,300 | 8.6 | 1.36 | 4.3 | 12.1 | 5.4% | 0.34 |
| Drake London | $5,900 | 8.6 | 1.39 | 4.4 | 12.8 | 8.5% | 0.52 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,500 | 8.5 | 1.33 | 4.6 | 12.7 | 6.6% | 0.36 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 8.1 | 1.32 | 4.8 | 12.0 | 3.1% | 0.28 |
| DeAndre Carter | $6,200 | 7.9 | 1.30 | 4.2 | 11.7 | 4.2% | 0.29 |
| Treylon Burks | $6,100 | 7.7 | 1.24 | 3.1 | 11.8 | 5.7% | 0.32 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,600 | 7.7 | 1.43 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 4.4% | 0.49 |
| Van Jefferson | $5,900 | 7.7 | 1.24 | 3.4 | 12.1 | 6.8% | 0.40 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,200 | 7.7 | 1.28 | 3.3 | 12.1 | 7.2% | 0.33 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,800 | 7.5 | 1.37 | 3.2 | 12.6 | 8.4% | 0.51 |
| Chris Moore | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.43 | 4.3 | 10.8 | 1.9% | 0.45 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,400 | 7.2 | 1.27 | 3.6 | 10.1 | 1.6% | 0.28 |
| Curtis Samuel | $6,000 | 6.9 | 1.16 | 3.7 | 9.9 | 0.5% | 0.09 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,500 | 6.6 | 1.22 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 2.0% | 0.25 |
| Richie James | $5,600 | 6.6 | 1.16 | 3.2 | 10.0 | 1.0% | 0.18 |
| Corey Davis | $5,500 | 6.6 | 1.16 | 2.8 | 9.8 | 1.9% | 0.26 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $5,700 | 6.6 | 1.13 | 2.5 | 10.2 | 2.5% | 0.23 |
| D.J. Chark | $5,300 | 6.6 | 1.24 | 2.4 | 10.7 | 2.7% | 0.37 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,500 | 6.5 | 1.18 | 2.8 | 10.6 | 3.6% | 0.30 |
| Robert Woods | $5,600 | 6.4 | 1.14 | 3.0 | 9.7 | 1.0% | 0.19 |
| Skyy Moore | $5,300 | 6.3 | 1.24 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 1.6% | 0.29 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,600 | 6.0 | 1.09 | 2.4 | 9.7 | 1.8% | 0.21 |
| Kendall Hinton | $5,400 | 5.8 | 1.07 | 2.8 | 8.9 | 0.5% | 0.14 |
| Ben Skowronek | $5,100 | 5.7 | 1.12 | 2.5 | 9.1 | 1.1% | 0.19 |
| Devin Duvernay | $5,500 | 5.7 | 1.11 | 2.8 | 9.1 | 0.2% | 0.16 |
| David Bell | $5,000 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 0.8% | 0.21 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,400 | 5.2 | 0.99 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 0.9% | 0.15 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,400 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 2.0 | 8.4 | 0.4% | 0.12 |
| Jauan Jennings | $5,800 | 5.0 | 0.87 | 1.7 | 8.1 | 0.2% | 0.06 |
| Phillip Dorsett | $4,900 | 5.0 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 8.9 | 1.6% | 0.22 |
| Justin Watson | $4,900 | 4.7 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 8.9 | 0.8% | 0.24 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,400 | 4.6 | 0.91 | 2.0 | 7.4 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | $5,200 | 4.6 | 0.82 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 0.3% | 0.09 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,700 | 4.5 | 0.81 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 0.3% | 0.07 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,300 | 4.5 | 0.92 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 0.4% | 0.10 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,400 | 15.4 | 1.87 | 10.4 | 20.1 | 53.3% | 1.25 |
| Mark Andrews | $7,100 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 6.5 | 16.0 | 29.2% | 0.69 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,900 | 9.6 | 1.62 | 5.3 | 13.5 | 17.4% | 0.74 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,400 | 8.7 | 1.36 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 13.3% | 0.38 |
| George Kittle | $6,200 | 8.5 | 1.39 | 4.8 | 12.4 | 14.2% | 0.43 |
| Foster Moreau | $5,500 | 7.5 | 1.34 | 3.3 | 11.9 | 11.5% | 0.47 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,300 | 7.4 | 1.41 | 4.3 | 10.7 | 5.0% | 0.42 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,000 | 6.9 | 1.29 | 3.0 | 10.2 | 6.7% | 0.41 |
| Hayden Hurst | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.32 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 4.2% | 0.29 |
| Evan Engram | $4,800 | 6.5 | 1.34 | 3.0 | 9.9 | 6.7% | 0.41 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,000 | 6.3 | 1.31 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 3.1% | 0.33 |
| Greg Dulcich | $5,200 | 5.9 | 1.19 | 2.1 | 10.3 | 5.7% | 0.32 |
| Gerald Everett | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.09 | 2.2 | 9.5 | 4.7% | 0.20 |
| Harrison Bryant | $4,700 | 5.7 | 1.17 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 4.2% | 0.39 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.06 | 1.5 | 9.2 | 4.2% | 0.25 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,900 | 5.2 | 1.07 | 2.0 | 8.3 | 1.0% | 0.19 |
| Robert Tonyan | $4,900 | 5.2 | 1.08 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 3.0% | 0.24 |
| Noah Fant | $5,100 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 1.8% | 0.13 |
| Austin Hooper | $5,000 | 4.8 | 0.98 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 2.2% | 0.16 |
| Mike Gesicki | $4,800 | 4.5 | 0.90 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 2.6% | 0.17 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,500 | 3.9 | 0.88 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 1.9% | 0.18 |
| Will Dissly | $4,600 | 3.7 | 0.82 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.2% | 0.05 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,200 | 3.2 | 0.77 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.1% | 0.11 |
