FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Monday Night (Saints at Buccaneers)
The final game of Week 13 features an NFC South matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and similar to last Monday's game, this one could be short on points. The Bucs are 3.0-point home favorites in a contest with a middling 41.5-point over/under.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
Tom Brady ($16,000) has exceeded 20 FanDuel points just once this season -- way back in Week 4 -- but in a potentially low-scoring game with iffy fantasy options across the board, he leads numberFire's projections and is likely to be a chalky MVP choice.
Despite the lack of spike weeks for Brady, Tampa Bay ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation, so there's a path to multiple scores if Brady continues to drop back at a high clip. He's thrown a pair of touchdowns in each of the last two games, and New Orleans ranks 18th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. Of course, the absence of any rushing upside and his potential popularity are valid reasons to leave him as a flex option, though.
Since Kamara blew up for 38.3 FanDuel points in Week 8, he's scored 7.7, 6.0, 10.9, and 4.0 FanDuel points over the last four games. Averaging just nine rushes and five targets per game over that span, he simply isn't seeing the same opportunities we're used to, and this isn't an ideal matchup against a defense that's allowed the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs.
Still, as dire as all this is, anyone who has shown the type of ceiling Kamara has needs to be in the MVP conversation, and if he's given the targets, Kamara could do damage in the passing game versus a team that's 27th in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to running backs.
Dalton is arguably even riskier considering former starter Jameis Winston looms if Dalton has another poor game, and the Bucs have the sixth-best adjusted pass defense. He's scored below 12 FanDuel points in three of the last four games. And yet, the lone exception was a three-touchdown game just two weeks ago, and he could see a lower MVP roster percentage than we might normally get for a quarterback, giving him some game-theory appeal.
Chris Olave ($13,500) is the one other Saints player with a projection of at least nine points, and he's joined by a trio of Tampa Bay options in Rachaad White ($11,000), Chris Godwin ($12,500), and Mike Evans ($14,000).
Outside of perhaps Kamara, Olave feels like the best New Orleans player to take stab at for your multiplier slot. He hasn't quite hit 20 FanDuel points in a game this year, but he's logged 100 receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown five times this season. In spite of inconsistent quarterback play, the potential is certainly there behind a 26.1% target share and 41.9% air yards share.
On the Bucs, White's role is uncertain with the expected return of Leonard Fournette ($12,000), but he could still be the lead back after logging a massive 90.9% snap rate with 14 carries and 9 targets in Week 12. While this figures to be more of a split backfield moving forward, taking a chance on White keeping a bigger piece of the pie could pay dividends.
Given Brady's fantasy limitations as a pure pocket passer, opting for Godwin or Evans in the multiplier slot might be the better way to go. Against wide receivers, the Saints are 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target. The status of Marshon Lattimore, who is questionable, is something to keep an eye on.
Dating back to Week 6, Godwin leads the team in target share (26.5%), whereas Evans is tops in air yards share (40.5%). Over this span, Godwin has logged double-digit targets in five of the last six games, and he's coming off his best fantasy performance of the year (23.0 points).
Evans' results have been more muted lately, scoring single-digit FanDuel points in three straight, but there's little reason to be concerned with his upside. Over the last six games, Evans is averaging 9.3 targets, which includes a robust 5.0 downfield targets (10-plus air yards) per game. His recent outputs could lower his MVP roster percentage, further adding to his case.
Sticking with the Bucs, the aforementioned Fournette should be a factor, and Julio Jones ($7,000) is the third wideout behind Godwin and Evans.
Our model projects Fournette for roughly 11 touches, which feels like a reasonable baseline, and it's always possible he earns a larger role than we expect. In Week 12, Jones recorded a 62.1% snap rate and 63.0% route rate, making him a solid value play in a pass-heavy attack.
In terms of Tampa dart throws, Russell Gage ($7,000) could play for the first time since Week 7, while Cameron Brate ($5,500) and Cade Otton ($7,500) will likely split snaps at tight end. But outside of one of them snagging a touchdown, this trio is unlikely to crack the optimal lineup.
On New Orleans, Jarvis Landry ($7,500) has logged a 16.5% target share since returning in Week 10, tight end Adam Trautman ($5,000) should see an increased role with Juwan Johnson ruled out, and Taysom Hill ($10,000) is always a weekly wild card. The Bucs have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points to tight ends, adding to Trautman's potential as a punt.
Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed ($6,500) has a 65.1% route rate over the past two weeks, putting him on the dart-throw radar.
Lastly, given that touchdowns could be hard to come by, kickers Ryan Succop ($9,000) and Wil Lutz ($8,500) project well as value plays, and the Tampa Bay D/ST ($9,500) is an intriguing play versus a sputtering New Orleans offense. Dalton has two multi-pick weeks this season and is averaging just 224.8 passing yards per game.