FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Thursday Night (Raiders at Rams)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Raiders are 6.0-point road favorites in a game with a 44.5-point total. That makes the implied score 25.25-19.25 in favor of Vegas.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
Jacobs has been on a roll. He's has seen massive volume over the past four games, totaling 30, 47, 32 and 37 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) over that span. That volume gives him a monster floor/ceiling combination, and we've seen that play out during this stretch as he's scored at least 17.5 FanDuel points in all four games while generating a spike outing of 45.3 FanDuel points two games ago. Our model pegs Jacobs to score a slate-leading 20.0 FanDuel points on Thursday.
Adams -- who we have posting 15.9 FanDuel points -- is running hot, too, and he's always a solid MVP pick on any single-game slate he's on. Since a one-catch game at the New Orleans Saints, Adams has logged target counts of 17, 14, 13, 11 and 12 in the previous five games. He's notched at least 126 yards in four of those five games -- a 74-yard day being the lone exception -- and has a trio of two-touchdown outbursts during this red-hot streak. The Rams have permitted the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to receivers (29.9), so Adams could be in for another big game.
It'll be interesting to see how MVP popularity shakes out. I think there's a chance Derek Carr ($15,000) goes a wee bit overlooked as a multiplier -- and maybe on the slate overall -- since it's super tough to jam in all three of Carr, Adams and Jacobs. While Carr offers almost nothing as a runner, he's another Raider getting nice volume, throwing the ball at least 36 times in four of the last five games. He's tossed 11 touchdowns across the last four games, and if draft percentage projections have the masses sleeping on him at MVP, I'll be all in. We have Carr totaling 16.4 FanDuel points.
On the Rams' side, things are considerably bleaker and more confusing. As of early Thursday morning, we can't be 100% sure of who LA is starting under center. It sounds like there is a chance the newly acquired Baker Mayfield ($12,500) could get some playing time -- especially if John Wolford ($13,000) can't go due to injury. But Wolford was able to practice in a limited capacity on Tuesday, so it stands to reason he'll be available. I'm sure we'll get more news as we get closer to kickoff.
If it sounds like multiple guys will take snaps under center, I'll likely just fade the whole situation. But if one guy is expected to run the show, I'll have some interest. I'd prefer that guy be Wolford.
While Wolford would be better suited to be a flex option, whoever the Rams start at quarterback is probably going to get totally overlooked at MVP, and anytime we can say that about a quarterback, we have to at least think about it. He'd be facing a Vegas defense that ranks third-worst overall and second-worst against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. He also offers some juice as a runner, too, rushing for 29 yards last week. Wolford would be an admittedly tough sell at MVP, but he -- whose salary is very low for a signal-caller -- would be more than fine as a flex play.
Coming into last week, Cam Akers ($12,000) appeared to be fading behind Kyren Williams ($7,000), but in Week 13, Akers played on 72% of the snaps compared to Williams' 28% snap rate. It's impossible to feel good about rostering either, but of the two, Williams is easier to justify using at his salary. Their snap rates were flipped in Week 12 -- 70% for Williams and 30% for Akers -- so this is a fluid situation. It's possible Williams leads the way on Thursday. The matchup is there as Vegas has surrendered the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to backs (23.7).
The Rams' are hurting at wideout, and as a result, Ben Skowronek ($6,500) and Van Jefferson ($10,500) registered snap rates of 97% and 100%, respectively, last week. They combined for just seven targets, though. If their salaries were the same, Jefferson's big-play upside would be enticing. Given the $4,000 salary difference, I prefer Skowronek, although it's hard to get too excited about either.
You can make a case for Tutu Atwell ($6,500). His two highest snap rates of the year -- 47% and 52% -- have come the last two weeks. He paced the Rams' receivers in targets (5) and yards (48) a week ago, and Atwell has the wheels to hit for a big play.
Our model likes Tyler Higbee ($8,000) best among LA's pass-game pieces. Higbee is a safe bet for a lot of snaps -- 97% snap rate in Week 13 -- and the matchup is a good one as the Rams have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (11.5). Our algorithm has Higbee generating 9.7 FanDuel points and rates him as the slate's best point-per-dollar play.
Flipping over to Vegas, Mack Hollins ($9,500) and Foster Moreau ($8,500) are close to every-snap players. Hollins has played at least 96% of the snaps in four straight while Moreau has a snap rate of at least 90% in seven consecutive games, including 100% snap rates in Weeks 12 and 13. Both make a lot of sense at their modest salaries. I side with Hollins between the two.
Keelan Cole ($6,000) is a dart throw I can sort of stomach. He's similar to Atwell on the LA side. Cole has played between 57% and 69% of the snaps in each of the past four weeks, so the playing time is decent. But he wasn't targeted last game and has a single-game season-high of two catches, which is why he's $6,000. Using him is a shot in the dark at a chunk play or a touchdown. The salary savings are nice, though.
The Las Vegas D/ST ($10,000) rates out as the better choice of the two defenses. The Rams have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to D/STs, and we have the Vegas D/ST posting 7.8 FanDuel points. With that said, the $10,000 salary will keep me away for the most part.