FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 (Sunday)

Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.

As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.

Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays of the slate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($9,100 on FanDuel): Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs find themselves as 14.0-point road favorites over the one-win Texans, so there's clear blowout risk for Mahomes this weekend. That being said, Kansas City's mediocre defense typically lets teams hang around, so Mahomes has sat out the end of lopsided wins just twice all season.

And even in a Chiefs beatdown, there's a very good chance that all the touchdowns will come off Mahomes' arm, as this offense ranks first in pass rate over expectation.

For the year, Mahomes has surpassed Tua Tagovailoa to rank first in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, and that efficiency combined with his passing volume has resulted in easily leading the league in both passing yards per game (320.0) and passing touchdowns per game (2.5).

Mahomes is projected for the slate's second-most FanDuel points, and he and our next entry are arguably in a tier of their own at the position on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts ($9,000): Hurts leads our projections, and he has really been on a roll lately, scoring 29-plus FanDuel points in three straight games. Leading all quarterbacks with 10 rushing touchdowns and averaging 52.8 rushing yards per game, he's the QB1 overall. Only Hurts, Mahomes, and Josh Allen are averaging 25-plus FanDuel points per game this season.

The Eagles are 9.0-point road favorites over the Bears, and they have the second-highest implied team total (28.75) behind only the Chiefs. Like Mahomes, we can't rule out a late-game benching if Philadelphia runs away with this one, but Hurts has piled up the fantasy points in plenty of blowouts this season, including each of the past two weeks.

Chicago has been a team to attack all year, ranking 31st in schedule-adjusted total defense, per numberFire's metrics, and they're also 30th against the pass specifically.

Justin Fields ($7,900): This is a very difficult matchup for Fields as a sizable home 'dog against a Philly defense that's allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.

But on a slate lacking many games with obvious shootout potential to boost quarterback scores, his rushing ability may very well represent our best chance of finding a signal-caller who can hang with Mahomes and Hurts. After all, he's one of just two players to score over 40 FanDuel points twice this year (the other being Lamar Jackson).

While Fields logged a season-low six rushes in his return from injury last week, he posted 71 yards and a touchdown on the ground, marking his sixth straight game with at least one rushing score and his seventh straight game tallying at least 60 rushing yards.

Despite the tough draw against the Eagles, Fields has found fantasy success in other difficult spots, posting 24.36 points versus the Patriots and 26.04 points against the Cowboys, the top-two adjusted total defenses in our metrics.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,900): Facing a Chargers defense that's 11th in adjusted pass defense but 30th in adjusted rush defense, this is a no-brainer matchup for Henry to have one of his slate-breaking performances. As a run-funnel defense, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields.

This season, Henry is averaging 26.4 adjusted opportunities per game (carries plus 2x targets), which is the league's sixth-best mark. Most notably, the Titans have utilized him more often in the passing game, as he's logged at least three targets seven times. His 34 targets through 13 games is already a career-high.

As one might expect, he sees heavy usage near the goal line, too, boasting a league-leading 85.7% red zone rush share.

In Week 15, Henry could also see an extra bump in playing time if Dontrell Hilliard (neck) remains out. Due to injury, Hilliard played only 12.9% of the snaps last week, resulting in Henry logging a 75.7% snap rate, one of his best marks of the year.

It all points to a rosy outlook for The Big Dog, and he sits atop numberFire's running back projections.

Alvin Kamara ($7,600): Since the calendar turned to November, Kamara's results have left a lot to be desired over the last five games, but there's some room for optimism moving forward.

While he saw a disappointing 60.7% snap rate and split opportunities virtually down the middle with Mark Ingram in Week 13, Ingram has since been placed on injured reserve, opening the door for a far better rest-of-season role for Kamara.

In the four games that Ingram has missed all or most of, Kamara has averaged a 76.5% snap rate, and in New Orleans' two wins over this span, he logged 38 and 22 adjusted opportunities, the first of which led to his three-touchdown day versus Las Vegas (38.3 FanDuel points).

Now, fresh off a bye week, the lead back should enjoy a positive game script against the Falcons as 4.5-point home favorites. Atlanta is 24th in adjusted rush defense and also ranks 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to running backs.

James Conner ($7,200): Since taking over as Arizona's workhorse back in Week 10, Conner has boasted a 91.1% snap rate and 72.2% red zone rush share while averaging a robust 27.8 adjusted opportunities per game. The end result? Conner has scored double-digit FanDuel points in all four weeks (22.1, 12.4, 19.5, and 20.4 points).

With Conner last playing on Monday, he hasn't gotten the salary hike he would normally see after a strong performance, propping him up as a mid-range value play.

A low-total game against Denver isn't likely to generate many quality fantasy performances, but Conner should still have plenty of chances to rack up points as long as he maintains this featured role. Although the Broncos have been one of the league's better defenses, they rank just 18th against the run in our metrics, and their sputtering offense could lead to more possessions for the Cardinals.

Travis Etienne ($7,000): Depending on how the Patriots' backfield shakes out, we could see some more value open up if Rhamondre Stevenson is ruled out, but otherwise, it looks like most of the value is in this salary range. That includes Etienne, who owns a fantastic role in the Jaguars' offense. However, he has fallen short of expectations lately.

In his six healthy games as Jacksonville's bell-cow back, he's averaged a 79.5% snap rate, but his adjusted opportunities have gone in the wrong direction. After logging 24, 30, and 32 adjusted opportunities from Weeks 7-9 -- scoring 18-plus points in all three games -- he's since seen 17, 19, and 17 in the three full games since. The good news is that the lack of opportunities can be explained by a negative game script in two of those weeks, and the last one came against a stout Titans rush defense.

Assuming the Jaguars can keep things competitive in a matchup where the Cowboys are favored by just 4.0 points, we could see Etienne's touches jump back up. While Dallas rates well against the run, it's easier to attack them on the ground compared to trying to beat their top-ranked adjusted pass defense.

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase ($9,000): With both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd barely playing in Week 14 due to injuries, it would go on to become Chase's one-man show. The superstar wideout would finish with 10 receptions for 119 yards and a score off a team-high 15 targets -- no one else would see more than 5 -- while amassing an absurd 46.9% target share and 56.4% air yards share.

Higgins and Boyd have practiced on a limited basis thus far, so one or both could return this weekend, but there also isn't any guarantee that either one will be at 100%. Even if they do play their usual roles, Chase has a 29.4% target share and 37.5% air yards share in his nine games this year.

While Cincinnati's matchup versus Tampa Bay has a modest 44.5 total, it projects as a fantasy-friendly game in both pace and pass rate. As of this writing, numberFire's model is docking Higgins and Boyd for their respective injuries, leaving Chase with the highest projection among wideouts.

CeeDee Lamb ($8,100): While Dak Prescott hasn't been putting up gaudy passing numbers on a team that prefers to rely on its run game, he's been quietly efficient and is now sixth in Passing NEP per drop back, tied with Josh Allen and sandwiched between Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. That's some pretty good company.

The Cowboys now face a Jaguars team that ranks 10th in adjusted rush defense but 29th against the pass, potentially setting up for more of an aerial attack. Enter Lamb, who has enjoyed a 25.7% target share and 34.4% air yards share since Prescott returned in Week 7. During this stretch, he's seen seven or more targets four times, with all four occasions resulting in 100 receiving yards and/or at least one touchdown.

Two of those weeks featured double-digit targets, and that's what we're hoping for this weekend. Lamb is projected for just over nine targets, and he has a top-six median score among wide receivers.

Mike Williams ($7,200): While Williams only played 65.4% of the snaps and saw a 12.5% target share in Week 14, he also had a 34.0% air yards share and made the most of it, catching all six of his targets for a team-best 116 receiving yards plus a touchdown. He's practicing in full this week, showing he didn't suffer any setbacks and could be fully unleashed against a Tennessee defense that's given up the most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.

Over the first seven games of the season, Williams logged an 88.7% snap rate, 19.9% target share, and 35.3% air yards share. Including last week, he's cracked 15 FanDuel points in five of eight healthy games, and he's exceeded 20 points twice.

Chris Moore ($6,000): With the Chiefs being two-touchdown favorites, we don't need to force a bring-back option in Mahomes lineups, but if we're going there, Moore might be the guy to consider. The Texans are expected to be missing both Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks again, which could lead to another big game from Moore as one of the last men standing.

Last week against Dallas, Moore saw a whopping 11 targets with a 45.8% target share and 55.5% air yards share, and it wasn't empty volume, as he managed to turn that into 10 catches for 124 yards (17.4 FanDuel points). Obviously, rostering anyone in his miserable offense is risky, but Moore could come through again versus a defense that's coughed up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,000): I don't always list Kelce here because he's clearly a top play week in and week out, but given that his projection is nearly double the slate's next-highest tight end in our model, we may want to give him even more consideration than usual. Kelce's actually coming off back-to-back weeks scoring single-digit FanDuel points, though it's probably wishful thinking to expect it to impact his roster percentage much.

He continues to be the lone pass-catcher to trust in this Kansas City offense, earning team-highs in overall target share (24.4%), red zone target share (33.0%), and end zone target share (32.1%). He's averaging 9.0 targets per game, leading to him comfortably pacing all tight ends in targets.

Kelce simply has a role that few tight ends come anywhere close to, and when paired with his elite quarterback, it gives him a ceiling rarely matched by his peers.

Cole Kmet ($5,300): An afterthought early in the season, Kmet has seen his stock slowly rise as Fields has emerged as one of the most exciting up-and-coming fantasy quarterbacks. Over his last four games with Fields, Kmet has seen a 27.0% target share while posting a 95.5% snap rate and 80.6% route rate. Even in this low-volume passing offense, that usage has led to six or more targets and double-digit FanDuel points in three of those games.

This is a difficult spot against the Eagles, but Kmet is arguably the best option if you want to pair a pass-catcher with Fields.

Defenses

Carolina Panthers ($4,200): With Kenny Pickett in the concussion protocol, it looks like either Mitchell Trubisky or even Mason Rudolph will get the start against the Panthers. We've attacked Pickett plenty of times with opposing defenses this season, so it's only natural we tee off on his backups, as well. Trubisky has averaged 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt this season, while Rudolph has a career average of 5.7 -- both marks that would rank near the bottom among qualified starters this season.

Despite Carolina's struggles this year, they have an adjusted total defense just outside the top 10, and they should be plenty motivated as surprise contenders in a weak NFC South.

Denver D/ST ($3,700): Most projection systems have Denver popping up as the best value defense, and our model is no exception. In Colt McCoy's three appearances this season, he's thrown just one touchdown to two interceptions, and he also has an 8.5% sack rate, which would rank as the eighth-worst mark among qualified starters.

Per our metrics, the Broncos are a top-five adjusted total defense and are also top-five against the pass. As long as they can keep the running game in check, they should be able to have a positive fantasy performance. The only downside will be that they're likely to be the slate's most popular option, which is something to keep in mind for tournaments.