NFL Betting Guide: Week 16 (Sunday)
A special slate means a special betting guide.
We'll still go through our five contest picks against the spread and Sunday totals in our normal betting guide, but we've got three games on Christmas Day in addition to the bulk of the week on Saturday. As a result, we'll want to see if we can find some betting action inside of those, too.
Using NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, here are my picks for Sunday's games. Play or fade as you please.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Packers +3.5 (-105) - 0.5 Units
The Packers might feel more at home this weekend with cooler temperatures in Miami. That's not the only reason I prefer the 'dog.
Green Bay has struggled with teams that can bludgeon their largest weakness: run defense. We saw Tennessee and Philadelphia target that weakness and have a lot of success. The pass-happy Dolphins, holding the league's sixth-highest pass rate over expectation, are just the 17th-best rushing offense in numberFire's overall nERD rankings.
That plays into the hands of the Packers, our 12th-best pass defense, on that side of the ball. As for Aaron Rodgers and the offense, they'll get to tango with the defense that we rank as the 11th-worst. Rodgers has shrugged off his early-season slump to post 0.17 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in the past five games (eighth-best in that time among passers with at least 80 attempts).
This game sets up well for Green Bay to be able to move the ball and force Miami to do what they'd prefer not to do offensively. That's worth a flier taking when we're getting over a field goal.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams
Broncos -2.5 (-130) - 1.5 Units
Under 36.5 (-105) - 0.5 Units
At 2.5 points, this is my fifth pick for my pick-five spread contest this week, and it comes down to a very simple thought -- Baker Mayfield against numberFire's top overall pass defense.
Denver isn't perfect, but they've got an identity. It's built on the reliance of numberFire's fifth-best overall defense. That's carried them all year, which is why -- miraculously -- the under has hit in 11 of 14 Broncos games this season. Russell Wilson was also even showing some life against Kansas City's defense before leaving with a concussion, and he's back this week.
The ring on the Rams' fingers might be a shiny distraction because we're not giving them enough credit for their futility. Since Cooper Kupp went down five weeks ago, L.A. is averaging the ninth-fewest Offensive NEP per play, and they're allowing the seventh-most Offensive NEP per play to opponents. They're awful.
Aaron Donald was a key cog of the Rams' rush defense, and he's still not practicing. Why would he be in a lost season? The Broncos still played hard last week against Arizona, so with minimal motivation questions on the Denver side, the better team and defense make plenty of sense when they're expected to have a strong part of a sparse crowd at SoFi.
The under is a natural add-on given Denver's tendency in that direction all season, and Mayfield should struggle to score all afternoon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Over 39.5 (-118) - 0.5 Units
Why not close out Christmas Day with an over?
Trace McSorley is already 1-for-1 cashing overs from his spot duty last week in Denver, but unfortunately for him, it was due in large part to his pair of interceptions. While that could be the case again versus a strong Tampa Bay defense, this game sets up well for an over.
By a decent margin, this one actually has the fastest situation-neutral pace on the slate this weekend. Both Arizona and Tampa play fast, and they're also 13th and 5th, respectively, in pass rate over expectation. McSorley's presence dropped this line below 40.0 points, but his ineffectiveness aside, this would be a script closer to 50.0.
I could see quite a bit of the Bucs' success coming on the ground in this one. They committed 23 carries to running backs last week, and the Cards are numberFire's eighth-worst rushing defense. More than anything, that helps provide hope the points can keep coming from the 7.5-point favorites if this game gets out of hand.
One final note -- turnovers can actually be helpful for quick points and shifts when betting an over. Both of these clubs are tied for the 11th-most turnovers (18) in the league this year.
