FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Monday Night (Chargers at Colts)
After blustery, wintery conditions for many of the games in Week 16, the Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts will be nothing like we grew used to over the weekend.
A 44.5-point total awaits us for an indoor matchup.
The Chargers are 3.5-point road favorites, and 74% of the spread bets and money are on the Chargers. With that in mind, the Colts should likely be overlooked in daily fantasy lineups tonight.
What stands out for tonight's matchup?
Before we dig in more, don't forget to brush up on some single-game perfect lineup trends and leverage our Sharpstack single-game optimizer for correlated lineup plays.
High-Level Simulation Results
I simulated this game 10,000 times -- using numberFire's projections -- to see some high-level takeaways. Here's what I found.
| Player | Position | Team | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | Top Score |
Top-5 Score |
Top Value |
Top-5 Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | $16,000 | 17.7 | 1.11 | 43.0% | 76.2% | 8.8% | 38.4% |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | $16,500 | 14.5 | 0.88 | 25.9% | 62.7% | 4.8% | 25.5% |
| Nick Foles | QB | IND | $14,000 | 14.4 | 1.03 | 23.3% | 61.3% | 6.6% | 32.4% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | IND | $13,000 | 11.1 | 0.85 | 7.9% | 42.5% | 1.7% | 21.6% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | $13,500 | 10.3 | 0.77 | 6.3% | 34.2% | 1.3% | 14.9% |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | $12,500 | 9.1 | 0.73 | 5.4% | 31.0% | 2.4% | 15.5% |
| Zack Moss | RB | IND | $12,000 | 9.2 | 0.77 | 8.2% | 31.0% | 3.9% | 20.5% |
| Cameron Dicker | K | LAC | $9,000 | 8.7 | 0.97 | 7.3% | 20.6% | 6.5% | 30.6% |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | IND | $9,500 | 8.5 | 0.89 | 3.2% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 22.5% |
| Los Angeles D/ST | D | LAC | $9,000 | 8.5 | 0.95 | 12.2% | 25.4% | 9.7% | 32.9% |
| Deon Jackson | RB | IND | $11,000 | 8.3 | 0.76 | 5.5% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 17.4% |
| Josh Palmer | WR | LAC | $10,000 | 6.5 | 0.65 | 1.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | 11.7% |
| Parris Campbell | WR | IND | $9,000 | 6.2 | 0.69 | 3.5% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 16.1% |
| Indianapolis D/ST | D | IND | $8,500 | 6.1 | 0.71 | 7.8% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 22.8% |
| Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | $8,500 | 5.4 | 0.63 | 2.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 14.1% |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | $8,000 | 5.6 | 0.70 | 5.4% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 21.2% |
| Joshua Kelley | RB | LAC | $7,000 | 5.4 | 0.76 | 9.9% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 28.6% |
| Jelani Woods | TE | IND | $7,000 | 4.1 | 0.58 | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 16.6% |
| Kylen Granson | TE | IND | $6,000 | 3.0 | 0.50 | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 13.7% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | TE | IND | $6,000 | 2.8 | 0.47 | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 13.0% |
| DeAndre Carter | WR | LAC | $7,500 | 2.9 | 0.39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| Jordan Wilkins | RB | IND | $6,500 | 2.4 | 0.37 | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 10.5% |
| Ashton Dulin | WR | IND | $7,500 | 1.3 | 0.17 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.1% |
| Sony Michel | RB | LAC | $6,000 | 1.7 | 0.28 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 8.1% |
| Donald Parham Jr. | TE | LAC | $6,500 | 1.3 | 0.20 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 5.1% |
| Isaiah Spiller | RB | LAC | $6,500 | 0.4 | 0.06 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.8% |
| Zander Horvath | RB | LAC | $5,500 | 0.6 | 0.11 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 5.9% |
| Richard Rodgers | TE | LAC | $5,000 | 0.6 | 0.12 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 6.8% |
Slate Breakdown
Let's start with the Chargers.
Justin Herbert has a mid-level matchup. The Colts rank 16th in adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics. In six games against teams ranked 13th through 23rd in adjusted pass defense, Herbert has averaged 318.0 yards and 1.8 touchdowns through the air. He's done that with better-than-expected efficiency based on the defenses he faced in that split. In two games with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams actually playing the majority of snaps, Herbert played teams that fit this bill defensively. He's averaged 340.0 yards per game in those two. He's a stud.
In those two relevant games with both Allen and Williams, Allen has been the main target. He has a 26.7% target share, good for 11.5 targets and 89.0 yards per game. Williams is tied for second on the team in target share (16.3% for 7.0 per game) but turned his workload into 91.5 yards and has a touchdown in this split, as well. Both are strong options, but Allen has the higher floor of the two.
After those two, we have Gerald Everett (16.3%), Josh Palmer (12.8%), and Austin Ekeler (12.8%) ranked accordingly by target share. Notably, Palmer has averaged 3.0 downfield targets (i.e. throws at least 10 yards downfield) in that two-game split. Only these three plus Allen and Williams have a route rate better than 47.0% in this sample, so digging too deep could be a bust waiting to happen.
Ekeler has generated 87.0 scrimmage yards on 13.5 carries and 5.5 targets with Allen and Williams back in the lineup. He's still had 42.9% of the red-zone opportunities and can always bust open a slate.
The Colts are turning over the offense to Nick Foles in this matchup. We have no relevant data for him. The Chargers are 11th in adjusted pass defense and 32nd in adjusted rush defense, so it's very likely that the Colts don't throw much here in order to take advantage of the Chargers' weaknesses.
That's the case even with Jonathan Taylor on injured reserve. The Colts are likely going to have a timeshare between Deon Jackson, Zack Moss, and Jordan Wilkins. The upside of guessing right is solid within the context of this matchup. The simulations prefer Moss the most.
There hasn't been much passing-game upside for the Colts all year. Even with a big market share for Michael Pittman Jr., he hasn't done much. Pittman Jr. holds a 26.2% target share but has turned 9.3 targets per game into 62.7 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per contest. No other Colt has better than a 14.7% target share (that'd be Parris Campbell at 14.7%). Given the dominant workload and the status as an underdog, Pittman Jr. is still very much in play and makes for a differentiation option at MVP without being silly.
Alec Pierce is next up at 13.9% on the season but trails only Pittman Jr. (27.9%) over the past five games with a 17.1% target share. Building around Foles and the Colts' pass-catchers is a way to differentiate -- primarily when you play the angle that the Chargers don't score enough points for their studs to be worth their salaries.
The simulations say that both kickers and the Los Angeles Chargers D/ST are very lively in this spot, as well.
