Super Bowl Betting Futures Update: Week 17
Remember when Week 17 was the final week of the season? Those halcyon days of yore when we could accurately set out just how mediocre a team was by classing them as an "8-8 team"? I miss those days. But you didn't come here to hear this old man moaning about kids today with their popular music and baggy clothes, did you? The NFL has two weeks of the regular season and heading into the final fortnight, 24 teams still have a mathematical chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Of course, they don't have the same chance, with a few teams heavily fancied while even more appear to be distinct longshots. Here's how the market looks ahead of Week 17, thanks to the folks at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +350 | 22.2% | 20.5% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +450 | 18.2% | 17.6% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +490 | 16.9% | 18.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +700 | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +800 | 11.1% | 12.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1100 | 8.3% | 9.1% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1900 | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2100 | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2800 | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3100 | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | +3700 | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +4800 | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | +6000 | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| New York Giants | +8500 | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Tennessee Titans | +9500 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Detroit Lions | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| New England Patriots | +14000 | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Washington Commanders | +15000 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | +22000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| New York Jets | +34000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | +45000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
In the eyes of the bookies, this year's Super Bowl champion will emerge from a Big Six that has formed at the very top of the markets. This is split neatly, with three AFC squads and three from the NFC. The AFC representatives are the current favorites, the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and the reigning AFC champions, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFC teams, followed by the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.
Serious business can be settled this week, as playoff berths and first-round byes can be secured. A Bills win and a Chiefs loss in Week 17 will secure the No. 1 seed for the Bills, meaning the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will go through upstate New York. The Bengals can claim back-to-back division titles for the second time in franchise history with a win and a Baltimore Ravens loss. The Miami Dolphins, who were 8-3 after Week 12, have lost four games on the spin but can still secure a Wild Card berth with a win this week. The status of Tua Tagovailoa will be worth monitoring, especially if you still like their +3700 odds to go all the way.
In the NFC, the Eagles -- the top-ranked team in the league, according to our nERD metric -- will earn the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2017 if they beat the New Orleans Saints or if the Cowboys lose to the Tennessee Titans. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can repeat as division champions for the first time in franchise history with a win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. If the New York Giants beat the Indianapolis Colts this weekend, they will earn their first playoff berth since 2016. The Washington Commanders are still alive in the playoff hunt, but they need to win this week and hope the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers all lose.
While those teams are looking to keep their titles hopes alive, losses this week will eliminate the Saints, Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Las Vegas Raiders have an even smaller margin for error, as a loss or a tie for them in Week 17 will mean no trip to the postseason for Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr.
No doubt about it -- things are starting to get seriously interesting in the NFL.
