4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 17
Stacks are usually the backbone of the best FanDuel lineups, especially in tournaments. Brandon Gdula's piece examining hit rates and correlation for stacks is a must-read article whether you're already familiar with stacking or new to the concept.
This piece will lay out my favorite weekly stacks. So, read on to see the stacks I'm firing up this week.
Patrick Mahomes ($9,000), Travis Kelce ($8,300) and Courtland Sutton ($6,800)
The Denver Broncos are a good defense, but I still like stacking the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. KC has a 28.5-point implied total, the slate's second-highest, and we saw the Chiefs light up the scoreboard for 34 points at Denver not that long ago.
One of the few weak spots for Denver's defense is their ability to defend tight ends. Tyler Higbee took advantage of that last week, and for the year, the Broncos have permitted the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to the position (11.1). Travis Kelce hasn't found the end zone in four straight weeks, but he has posted yardage totals of 113 and 105 over the past two games. We project him for 14.6 FanDuel points, a position-best mark by 3.8 points.
Patrick Mahomes went for 352 passing yards and three scores in the earlier meeting with Denver. He can torch any defense, and we have him scoring 22.6 FanDuel points, tops among all quarterbacks on the slate.
Our model has them projected nearly evenly -- 8.0 FanDuel points for Jeudy and 8.9 for Sutton. Sutton returned from injury last week and logged seven targets while Jeudy racked up 10. You can make a case for either. Jeudy had a three-touchdown game against KC in the first matchup, which might cause him to be the more popular of the two. That pushes me to Sutton.
If you need to save coin, you can leave off Mahomes and use just Kelce plus one of Denver's top two wideouts.
Jared Goff ($7,400), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) and David Montgomery ($7,500)
On paper, the best fantasy environment of the slate is the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears game. It's indoors in Detroit, and the game sports a slate-leading 52.5-point over/under with a fairly tight 5.5-point spread.
Jared Goff has repeatedly come through in this kind of spot all year, and he's been much better at home than on the road.
|Goff in 2022||Games||QB Rating||Passing Yards |
Chicago has one of the NFL's worst defenses -- fourth-worst by our metrics -- and has allowed 18.9 FanDuel points per game to signal-callers, the sixth-most. It's all systems go for Goff, who may be the slate's best quarterback play once you factor in salary. Our model projects him for 20.6 FanDuel points, the second-most at the position.
When Goff is in a smash spot, Amon-Ra St. Brown is in a smash spot.
St. Brown has been targeted at least eight times in nine consecutive games, and this is a cakewalk matchup for him. He caught 10 of 11 targets for 119 yards in the initial meeting with the Bears, and while ARSB will be popular, he looks like chalk worth swallowing.
The Bears' pass-game options are pretty blah, so for a bring-back piece, I am turning to David Montgomery. Detroit's run D has been bad all year -- last in the league, according to our numbers -- and they just got steamrolled by D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard a week ago.
Montgomery had 16 carries and four targets last week in Khalil Herbert's first game back, so while Herbert's return is a slight issue, Montgomery is still going to get plenty of work.
Cole Kmet ($5,300) deserves a shout, too. Detroit has surrendered the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (11.6).
Another way to stack this game is to pair Justin Fields ($8,400) and ARSB. You could add Kmet and/or Montgomery to that, as well. Fields' running ability gives him a chance to break any slate, and he put up 40.38 FanDuel points on the Lions a couple of weeks back.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,100), Romeo Doubs ($5,900) and Dalvin Cook ($8,300)
I really like the idea of stacking the Packers. Minnesota's defense has been one to pick on all season, and there's no reason to stop now. The Vikings are giving up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (19.9) and the second-most to receivers (33.7). We haven't seen many ceiling games from Aaron Rodgers this year, but he can deliver in this matchup.
The issue is that it's hard to know who to stack alongside Rodgers. The two highest-upside options -- Christian Watson ($7,600) and Aaron Jones ($7,600) -- are both banged up, with Watson looking unlikely to play (as of Thursday) while Jones was limited in practice on Wednesday but played only 38% of the snaps last week as he deals with various ailments. It seems like Jones will play, but if he doesn't, A.J. Dillon ($7,200) would become a stacking option.
If Jones plays and Watson sits, I want some Romeo Doubs. Last week, Doubs played slightly more than 80% of the second-half snaps after Watson exited early. He saw six total targets, and prior to going on the shelf, Doubs had been emerging as a big-play weapon. He could pop at an easy-to-like salary.
Whenever you want a piece from the Vikes, Justin Jefferson ($9,200) is the obvious choice. He torched Green Bay for nine catches, 184 yards and a pair of tuddies in Week 1. He's put up at least 123 yards in four of his last five games. He's an amazing play each and every week. I'm not going to push back if you want to prioritize him.
However, I am super intrigued by Dalvin Cook. Early draft percentage projections have Cook going overlooked, and he can take advantage of a Green Bay D that has conceded the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (22.0). He's a savvy pivot off the Jefferson chalk and is $900 less in salary.
Travis Etienne ($7,700) and Brandin Cooks ($6,400)
Houston has been gashed by the run in 2022, giving up the most FanDuel points per game to running backs (27.7). That gives Travis Etienne massive upside.
Etienne has played at least 71% of the snaps in each of the last eight games he's finished, and he's totaled 25 and 22 opportunities (carries plus targets) over the past two weeks. He's a modest-salaried workhorse in a dream matchup.
Brandin Cooks came back from injury to play in Week 16 and saw promising usage, racking up nine targets. While he turned that into just four catches for 34 yards and a score, Cooks can be more efficient against a Jacksonville defense that our metrics rank fourth-worst versus the pass. He projects for 10.2 FanDuel points, per our model, and rates as a nice point-per-dollar choice.
These two will be core plays for me. They offer good ceilings at appealing salaries and aren't expected (as of Thursday) to be overwhelmingly chalky. Sign me up.