NFL

Fantasy Football: Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Conference Championship Update)

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jan 23rd, 2023

As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.

How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, we have better alternatives.

Fantasy points per game allowed to opponents can get us an idea of where weak points are, but why not adjust those to opponent level? By that, I don't even mean simply team-level adjustments. After all, we know that holding a superstar wideout in check is more impressive than stifling a third-string teammate. So, these numbers will adjust themselves to contextualize for opponents at the player level.

I also like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.

Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.

Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.

You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of success rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL entering the conference championships.

For defensive purposes, lower success rates, expected points, and fantasy points allowed numbers allowed are better. However, because we'll primarily want this data for fantasy football purposes, top-five defenses get red shading, and bottom-five defenses get green shading when used.

Quarterback Pass Defense

Team Pass
NEP/
DB 		Rk Pass
Success
Rate 		Rk Adj.
FP/
DB 		Rk Avg.
Rk
PHI -0.10 1 41.4% 3 0.34 2 2.0
SF -0.04 4 45.1% 14 0.35 5 7.7
CIN 0.02 9 42.9% 5 0.39 13 9.0
KC 0.03 12 44.6% 12 0.43 27 17.0
NFL Average 0.06 45.8% 0.40

Running Back Rush Defense

Team
 Rush
NEP/C 		Rk Rush
Success
Rate 		Rk Adj.
Rush
FP/C 		Rk Avg.
Rk
SF -0.07 1 39.1% 5 0.51 4 3.3
CIN -0.01 11 43.4% 18 0.55 10 13.0
BUF -0.01 13 41.4% 12 0.63 19 14.7
KC 0.02 18 44.0% 19 0.57 13 16.7
PHI 0.09 26 45.3% 27 0.69 25 26.0
NFL Average 0.02 42.8% 0.62

Receiving Defense vs. Position

Team
 RB Adj.
FDP/
Tgt 		Rk WR Adj.
FDP/
Tgt 		Rk TE Adj.
FDP/
Tgt 		Rk
CIN 1.08 12 1.46 27 1.28 8
KC 1.18 22 1.44 24 1.44 19
PHI 1.08 11 1.33 6 1.18 5
SF 0.76 1 1.45 25 1.28 10
NFL Average 1.11 1.38 1.40