NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/26/20
The puck has already dropped on today's NHL action, with the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers treating us to afternoon playoff hockey. With two more games on the go today, there's plenty of action to keep us entertained.
Here are a couple plays from tonight's two game slate!
Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Bruins moneyline (-120): 1-Star Rating out of 5
It's not an enviable spot for the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning tonight. After playing into overtime last night, the teams have a quick turnaround with Game 3 going tonight.
Under normal circumstances, a back-to-back would be a good opportunity for role players and backup goalies to get a few extra reps. But this is the NHL Playoffs, and with neither team willing to give up an advantage, it will be interesting to see how lines are deployed with limited rest.
Boston has seen a PDO above 1.000 in four of their last five games. However, their PDO in the bubble remains last among remaining teams at 0.989. This suggests that the Bruins could continue to see increases in shooting and save percentages as they work up to the hypothetical average of 1.000. Increased shooting and save percentages will certainly bolster their chances at victory.
When Boston wins on the second night of a back-to-back, they win big. The Bruins have covered the puckline in three of their four wins, with an average winning margin of 2.8 goals.
Jaroslav Halak also has some impressive splits with no rest throughout his career. With zero days rest, Halak has won 7 of 10 starts (14 games played), which may be a good omen for the Bruins.
The opposite is true for Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has dropped seven of eight starts with no rest. His stats don't inspire any confidence either with a 3.86 goals against average and 89.0% save percentage.
Take note of these trends -- the B's have stayed under the total on the second night of a back-to-back 8 out of 12 times this season. Tampa has been almost equally as reliable, staying under in 7 of 12.
Our algorithm projects the Bruins as 55.1% favorites, which translates to approximately -123 favorites. With the Bruins currently listed as -120 at FanDuel Sportsbook, that leaves you with an advantage in taking them on the moneyline, rated as a one-star play.
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
Under 5.5 (+100): 4-Star Rating out of 5
After scoring 17 goals in their first seven games, the Dallas Stars have gone on to match that output in their last three. Although their 21.0% shooting percentage in this three game span is impressive, it's not sustainable.
The same can be said of their PDO, which has averaged 1.112 over their last four games, bringing their playoff average up to 1.010. Dallas might be through the correction phase of their PDO and should come back down to earth in the coming games.
Nathan MacKinnon has been a highlight reel throughout the playoffs for the Colorado Avalanche. The problem is the two seven-goal games may have skewed the Avs' numbers. By removing those two games, we see the team's shooting percentage drop to 7.2%, with a range of 3.9% to 10.7%, which fits somewhat appropriately. Those two big games have inflated the Avs' playoff shooting percentage to a respectable 9.8%. But it looks like the seven-goal games are the exception, not the rule.
The other issue impacting the Avs is the absence of Philipp Grubauer. Pavel Francouz has been forced into action and the early results are anything but inspired. The Avs would probably be better served avoiding a run-and-gun style of game with Francouz between the pipes.
There are some notable under trends worth considering in this one.The total has remained constant at 5.5, with the price being adjusted to +100 on the under. This leaves a significant advantage in taking the under, rated as a four-star play, as per our projections.
