NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/8/20
It's hard to believe, but we are over a month into the postseason and already on to the Conference Finals. Enjoy these next seven to 10 days, everyone -- they'll be the last days that we get hockey everyday until the new season starts in December.
Here's what we're looking at tonight!
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars
Under 5.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Defense wins championships, they say, and the Dallas Stars will be hoping to prove that old adage true.
After playing a substantially more open style against the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas reverted to their typical defensive brand of hockey in Game 1 versus the Vegas Golden Knights. Dallas controlled possession and limited the Golden Knights to paltry 16 scoring chances and five high-danger chances on Sunday night. That is the fewest such opportunities Vegas has been limited to this postseason. Vegas was unable to capitalize on their few opportunities and were blanked 1-0.
The poor output is reflective of the Golden Knights' last seven games. In that span they are averaging 2.0 goals per game, scoring more than three goals just once and being shut out twice. Not surprisingly, five of those seven games have stayed under the total.
Information doesn't come easily this time of year. Teams play their cards close to their chest to avoid giving their opponents any time to prepare or scheme ahead of the next contest. That's particularly true when it comes to figuring out starting goaltenders. Nothing's been confirmed, but I suspect that Game 2 will see the return of Robin Lehner between the pipes for the Golden Knights. He's been the starter of record in eight of Vegas's 11 wins and has played to the under in six of his last eight starts.
Don't expect any changes to the Stars' lineup, as Anton Khudobin continues to be their stalwart this postseason. His save percentage remains below his season and career averages, which suggests that he should continue to see increases to his save percentage over the coming games.
Dallas will likely want to slow the pace again and keep Vegas pinned in their defensive end. Even if Vegas is able to create more opportunities, their track record over the last seven games doesn't support increased output. Goaltending metrics also point toward a low-scoring game. These low-scoring indicators are reflected in our model, which projects a low-scoring game tonight.
Under 5.5 is priced at -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook and is rated as a two-star play, per our algorithm. Taking the Stars on the moneyline and +1.5 are also worth considering, according to our projections.
