NHL Betting Guide: Friday 2/5/21
There were some high-scoring games in the NHL last night, with five of the eight games going over the total. Several of those games flew over the total and cracked the double-digit barrier. We got five games on the docket tonight, all of which carry a total of 5.5, which means there might be some value in taking the overs.
Here are tonight's plays!
Florida Panthers vs. Nashville Predators
Panthers moneyline (-126): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Panthers -1.5 (+198): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-125): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Friday night looks like a good bounce-back spot for the Florida Panthers. Florida held the lead through most of the game last night against these same Nashville Predators but blew a two-goal advantage with 2:06 to go in the third before losing in overtime.
The Panthers got off to a hot start by scoring five goals on their first 24 shots and chasing Juuse Saros from the crease, forcing Pekka Rinne into action. Rinne came in and stopped all 12 shots en route to victory. That goaltending switch complicates things for the Predators, who now have to decide which goalie to ride on the second night of a back-to-back. It feels like a lose-lose situation because there are downsides to going with either one. By giving up five last night, the Preds have extended their streak of giving up at least four goals to three straight games.
Sergei Bobrovsky starting last night paves the way for Chris Driedger to start tonight. There are some implications with this, as well, as starters are normally reserved for the second night of the back-to-back, meaning the Panthers could view Driedger as the number-one guy in net. Driedger is off to a hot start and should be able to limit the Predators offense, which is on the conservative side of the spectrum, particularly at five-on-five.
Our projections give a substantial advantage to the home team in this one, with the Panthers listed as 73.4% favorites. The betting market is short on the Panthers, having them installed as paltry -126 favorites. That makes backing them on the moneyline a four-star play, according to our numbers. That same advantage is also reflected in the Panthers' puckline price, making that wager a three-star play. This is also a game we should expect to see go over the total, which is a two-star wager.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins
Flyers moneyline (+118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Flyers +1.5 (-250): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Boston Bruins will look to complete their four-game road trip today by collecting points in all four games. The Bruins are 2-0-1 through the first three games and face the Philadelphia Flyers tonight for the second time in three nights. This was originally scheduled as the first night of a back-to-back for the Bs, but their Saturday game against the Buffalo Sabres has been postponed.
The Bruins have been inconsistent on the road this season, alternating between below-average outings and booming production. This trend is illustrated clearly using their current road trip. They have gone from 18 high-danger chances in their first game against the Washington Capitals to 4 in the second, and then back up to 13 on Wednesday against the Flyers. Boston has yet to have consecutive above-average games on the road.
The Flyers are 3-0-0 when Brian Elliott starts, and those have been some of the Flyers' most productive games. When Elliott starts, the Flyers' scoring chance percentage is 50.7% and their high-danger percentage is 59.3%. When he does not start, those numbers nose dive to 43.4% and 40.6%, respectively. Clearly, the Flyers are more comfortable playing in front of Elliott, which should help Philly tonight.
According to our algorithm, the Bruins have a 51.0% chance of winning this one. FanDuel Sportsbook has them installed as -142 favorites, which carries a 58.7% implied probability. That leaves an advantage in backing the Flyers on home ice. Similarly, there's also an advantage in backing them on the puckline, which is also rated as a one-star play.
