NHL Betting Guide: Saturday 3/13/21
Get ready for another exciting Saturday of hockey! Favorites swept the board last night and have rolled over the underdogs all week. With 12 games on the slate tonight, there's plenty of plus expected value wagers to be made.
Here are a few wagers worth looking at!
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets
Leafs moneyline (-210)
We have seen the Toronto Maple Leafs outplay their opponents by a substantial margin for five straight games, but the results have not gone the Leafs' way.
Toronto has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 53.0% five games in a row, with four of those percentages being above 63.0%. It's been an impressive combination of offensive prowess and defensive structure. Over the five-game sample, the Leafs have out-shot their opponents by a cumulative 180-136 margin, out-chanced them in scoring chances 196-111, and high-danger chances 82-37. In spite of this dominance, the Leafs only have two wins over their last five.
Saturday night is the end of a five-game road trip for the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets have split the first four games of the Eastern swing but have struggled playing in Toronto. In three games at Toronto this season, the Jets have put up expected goals-for percentages of 26.4%, 36.8%, and 33.2%. Winnipeg has had a tough time on the road overall, posting just three game scores where they outplayed their opponents.
Connor Hellebuyck is starting to show cracks in his armor. He's played the second-most minutes this season and faced the most shots and second-most high-danger opportunities. He's posted below-average save percentages in three of his last five and allowed at least three goals in five straight starts. Those are concerning metrics for a team that relies on their goaltender so heavily.
The Leafs are 4-2-1 playing on Saturday night this season, and the Jets are 2-3-0.
The betting market is starting to shift in favor of the Leafs -- and rightfully so. They have hit a blip but continue to dominate their opponents. It won't be long before that trend corrects itself. Winnipeg has struggled on the road this season and should continue to regress. Backing the Maple Leafs is the right side to be on.
Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks
Ducks moneyline (+104)
Over 5.5 (-120)
The San Jose Sharks relied on Devan Dubnyk to get past the Anaheim Ducks on the first night of a back-to-back, winning 6-0. The metrics suggest that the Sharks may have gotten lucky in winning.
The Sharks were outplayed for the third straight game last night and for the fifth time in six overall. San Jose posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% and failed out to out-possess their opponent for the sixth straight time.
San Jose appeared to play their analytics cards correctly by saving their primary goalie -- Martin Jones -- for the second night of the back-to-back, but they may be overvaluing Jones' contributions. Jones has just two wins over his last eight starts. He's put up an 88.1% save percentage over that span and been pulled three times.
The Ducks put up a heroic offensive effort Friday night but weren't rewarded for their efforts. They tied their season-high with 19 high-danger opportunities, and they out-shot and out-possessed the Sharks by substantial margins. Output should follow this type of production.
The Sharks have played two back-to-backs this season. They lost both second legs and were objectively outplayed in both contests, including in this same scenario at the start of February. The Ducks are due for increased output, which implies that there's value in backing Anaheim on the moneyline and taking the over.
