NHL Betting Guide: Monday 3/15/21
The NHL continues to play catch up on its COVID-19 postponements, which means another busy week of hockey. There were 10 games scheduled for today, but the Los Angeles Kings were unable to leave Denver, which means their game against the St. Louis Blues was postponed. That leaves us with nine games on the docket, starting at 4:00 pm ET.
We're kicking this week off with two underdogs from our daily projections!
New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Rangers moneyline (+110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Rangers +1.5 (-265): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Goaltending appears to be a big issue for the Philadelphia Flyers. Carter Hart and Brian Elliott have allowed at least three goals in seven straight games. Opponents are averaging 4.1 goals per game, and the Flyers tandem is stopping only 83.4% of shots. The Flyers have two wins during that span, but one came in a shootout against the lowly Buffalo Sabres.
Philadelphia has been a possession-dominant team, but they haven't translated that to consistent offensive production. Over the same seven-game sample, the Flyers average 24.0 scoring chances with a range of 12 to 38.
The New York Rangers have been improving over their recent sample and are coming off a momentum-building win against the Boston Bruins. The Broadway Blue Shirts have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in four of their last five. However, they haven't been rewarded for their efforts, as they only have two wins in that time. Expect a few more good results to follow this improved level of play.
The betting market has the Rangers installed as +110 underdogs. That's in opposition to our modeling, which projects the Rangers as 62.0% favorites. That means there is value in backing New York on the moneyline and puckline, which we rate as three- and four-star plays, respectively.
Ottawa Senators vs. Vancouver Canucks
Senators moneyline (+146): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Senators +1.5 (-162): 2-Star Rating out of 5
You wouldn't know it by looking at their position in the standings, but the Ottawa Senators are a damn good home team. The Sens are last in the NHL North with 21 points and only 6-6-1 on home ice, but their advanced metrics suggest that they are due for positive regression.
Most of the Sens' relative metrics are above 50.0%. So far this season, they are out-shooting opponents at a 51.1% rate and out-chancing them in scoring chances at 51.3% and in high-danger chances at 55.3%. Their possession metrics differ. Ottawa's Corsi percentage is 49.4%, whereas their Fenwick percentage is 51.3%. Their metrics culminate with a 13th-ranked expected goals-for percentage of 52.7% on home ice.
On the home/road dichotomy spectrum, the Vancouver Canucks are on the opposite end of the scale. Vancouver has the second-worst expected goals-for percentage as the away team. It's a dangerous combination of ineffective offense and lackadaisical defense that is inhibiting the Canucks' success.
Vancouver manages just 24.7 scoring chances and 9.8 high-danger opportunities as the visitor, compared to 28.7 and 11.6 at home. They also allow more opportunities as the visitor. Opponents average 31.6 scoring and 12.5 high-danger chances on the road, compared to 31.1 and 11.9 when the Canucks are the hosts.
The Canucks have had a respectable record recently, going 7-6-2 over their last 15, but that's largely thanks to playing 12 of those games in their friendly confines.
Ottawa is good on home ice, and the Canucks can't seem to figure things out away from home. The implied price of the Senators' +146 moneyline price is 40.7%, whereas our projections give them a 42.4% chance of winning. That leaves positive expected value in backing them on the moneyline, which is rated as a one-star play, and the puckline is rated as a two-star play.
