NHL Betting Guide: Monday 3/29/21
It was a low-scoring Sunday in the NHL, with five of the six games staying under the total and five underdogs winning outright. We're looking for that trend to continue on Monday night's slate of games. Scheduling-wise it's a consistent week with no fewer than six games scheduled on any night, including seven tonight.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
Buffalo Sabres vs. Phiadelphia Flyers
Sabres Moneyline (+172): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Sabres +1.5 (-164): 5-Star Rating out of 5
It's tough to get behind a team that is on a 17-game losing streak, but if there's one team that is in worse shape than the Buffalo Sabres right now, it's the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Flyers got just their second win in their last seven games last time out against the New York Rangers, but their results over that span have been anything but good. Philadelphia is averaging 2.0 goals per game over the seven-game sample while allowing an average of 4.7.
From a metrics perspective, there is room for improvement. The Flyers have allowed 10 or more high-danger chances in four of the seven games and have out-chanced their opponents just twice over that span.
What's been even more concerning are the Flyers' goaltending metrics over the last 15 games. During that span, Carter Hart and Brian Elliott have combined for an 82.6% save percentage.
The Sabres have a myriad of problems, but from a metrics perspective, they are improving. The Sabres have attempted 10 or more high-danger chances in five of their last seven and have allowed eight or fewer such opportunities in three of five.
Buffalo put up their best game score since March 2nd against the Pittsburgh Penguins, establishing an expected goals-for percentage of 49.7%, and they gave the Boston Bruins everything they could handle last time out before blowing a third-period lead and losing 3-2.
In weighing the available data, our algorithm projects the Sabres as 57.3% favorites, which is substantially higher than the +172 moneyline price on the home team. That leaves big advantages in backing the Sabres on the puckline, which is rated as a five-star play, and on the moneyline, a four-star play.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Los Angeles Kings
Kings Moneyline (+188): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Kings +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Monday night is shaping up to be a bit of a flat spot for the Vegas Golden Knights. Vegas is settling in for four straight home games after playing 10 of their last 13 on the road. All things considered, it was a successful span with the Knights taking six of 10 victories as the visitors against some of the best teams in the NHL West, but don't be surprised if they get a little too comfortable after a busy few weeks.
The other thing worth considering is that the Knights are fresh off a big 3-2 overtime win against their biggest challenge in the West Division, the Colorado Avalanche. They could be focused on their good result from the weekend and be looking right past the Los Angeles Kings.
The Kings are six points out of the final playoff position in the West but have three games in hand. With the two teams ahead of them in the standings, the St. Louis Blues and Arizona Coyotes, out of action tonight, the Kings are aware of the importance of tonight's contest.
LA has been proficient offensively recently, as they have managed 12 or more high-danger chances in four of their last five and 29 or more scoring opportunities in four of six. Their team shooting percentage is down to 6.7% during the six-game span and should start to work back up towards average.
High-danger chances should be easy to come by for the Kings tonight, as the Knights are allowing an average of 11.9 over their last seven games and gave up a combined 26 against the Kings when these teams met for a two-game set last week.
Our projections give the Golden Knights less of a chance of winning than the implied probability in the betting market. That means that the edge lies in backing the Kings tonight. We rate the Kings moneyline and puckline wagers as two-star plays.
